Predicting toxicity for head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy: an independent and external validation of MDASI-HN based nomogram

AimWe conducted a study to validate the MDASI-HN based nomogram, which is used to predict the acute toxicities in head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy.BackgroundTolerance to radiation varies from patient to patient and also depends on various other factors like tumor volume, dose of radiation, chemotherapy. Predicting the toxicities allow us to identify potential candidates who are likely to have a higher toxicity and, in addition, evaluates the nomogram when done on an independent group of patients.Materials and MethodsSixty biopsy confirmed head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation were the subjects of the study. The patients completed patient reported outcome instrument (PRO) MDASI-HN questionnaire at the beginning and at the fifth week of radiation. The baseline score obtained was used to obtain the predicted score using nomogram. The nomogram was also externally validated as per the TRIPOD guidelines.ResultsThe mean baseline, predicted and score at the fifth week were 27.28 ± 11.04, 73.33 ± 15.51 and 82.62 ± 17.67, respectively, for all sub-sites. A positive, significant correlation (p < 0.01) between the predicted score and the score at the fifth week was seen across all sub sites such as Oral cavity (p = 0.05), Oropharynx (p = 0.02), Hypo pharynx (p = 0.02) and Larynx (p = 0.02).ConclusionThe MDASI-HN questionnaire based nomogram is simple, easily doable and takes into consideration the initial symptoms as well the treatment details; thereby, it is able to predict the toxicities accurately.     

Disentangling the potential effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin‐wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land‐use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed‐wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed‐wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land‐use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed‐wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%–26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land‐use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land‐use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.     

Flexible docking of peptides to proteins using CABS‐dock

Molecular docking of peptides to proteins can be a useful tool in the exploration of the possible peptide binding sites and poses. CABS‐dock is a method for protein–peptide docking that features significant conformational flexibility of both the peptide and the protein molecules during the peptide search for a binding site. The CABS‐dock has been made available as a web server and a standalone package. The web server is an easy to use tool with a simple web interface. The standalone package is a command‐line program dedicated to professional users. It offers a number of advanced features, analysis tools and support for large‐sized systems. In this article, we outline the current status of the CABS‐dock method, its recent developments, applications, and challenges ahead.     

海南铜鼓岭鸭脚木种群动态特征研究

鸭脚木(Schefflera octophylla)是海南文昌铜鼓岭国家级自然保护区内滨海森林的优势种,也是海南其他地区热带森林常见伴生种。为深入了解该区滨海森林内鸭脚木种群的生存现状、更新机制以及未来发展的动态变化特点,该研究通过对海南热带滨海森林2.56 hm²样地中鸭脚木种群的调查,以径级结构代替龄级结构,编制鸭脚木种群静态生命表,并结合种群动态量化指数、生存函数、时间序列预测模型等方法定量分析鸭脚木种群结构和数量动态变化。结果表明:(1)研究区域内共记录鸭脚木数量2 814株,按照径级大小共划分为12个龄级,龄级结构呈倒J字型,属于趋向稳定型种群。(2)该区鸭脚木的存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型,种群各径级的死亡率相接近。(3)鸭脚木种群的量化指数显示,V_pi=30.685>0,V_pi''=0.236>0,说明该种群现处增长阶段并且相对稳定。(4)据时间序列模型预测鸭脚木种群在未来的3、6、9 a内各龄级的种群个体数量整体呈现增加的趋势。综上分析认为,该区生境有利于鸭脚木种群的生长且该种群形成了良好的生存策略,其幼龄个体较多且后备资源丰富,能较好地补充各龄级个体自然死亡造成的损失,对森林的天然更新起到一定促进作用     

基于ARIMA-ANN模型的生态安全评价及预测——以河西走廊城市群为例

生态安全是社会经济可持续发展的基本保障,研究区域生态安全时空格局历史演变与发展趋势具有重要意义。本文选取河西走廊地区5个地级市为对象,建立基于PSR-EES模型的生态安全评价指标体系,采用综合指数法计量其2008-2017年期间10年生态安全值,进而采用ARIMA-ANN模型预测未来该区域生态安全变化趋势。结果表明:河西走廊地区生态安全呈波动上升状态,演变特征与区域的生态保护规划与政策措施相吻合;各地级市生态安全等级与理想状态存在不同程度的差距;张掖、金昌、酒泉三市存在一定的生态风险;采用ARIMA单项模型、ARIMA-ANN组合模型对河西走廊区域生态安全变化趋势进行预测的平均相对误差、相关系数分别为2.01%、0.8852(ARIMA)和1.09%、0.9665(ARIMA-ANN);ARIMA-ANN组合模型预测河西走廊地区2020年的生态安全值达0.8107,处于V级。本研究证明,ARIMA-ANN组合模型在区域生态安全演变评价和发展趋势预测中获得较高的准确度和精度,对优化区域生态空间布局和安全管理具有实践价值。     

基于DNA变异在亚欧混合人群中预测男性型脱发

男性型脱发(male pattern baldness,MPB)是一种雄激素依赖性的遗传性脱发疾病,对个人形象、心理产生较大的消极影响.近期欧美人群中进行的大样本全基因组关联分析(genome wide association studies,GWAS)已报道大量与MPB相关的遗传易感性单核苷酸多态性(single nucleotide polymorphisms,SNPs)位点,但这些位点在东亚人群中的遗传效应尚不清楚.本研究基于我国684个亚欧混合人群(Eurasian)样本,对在英国生物样本库(UK Biobank) 205 327个欧洲男性GWAS分析发现的624个与MPB相关的SNPs进行人群异质性分析,基于多基因风险打分(polygenic risk scores,PRS)建立预测模型,并对预测因子数量与模型预测性能的关系进行了研究.通过质控的467个SNPs中6.9%与MPB显著相关(P0.05).结合年龄、体质指数(body mass index,BMI)和25个SNPs建立的线性回归和逻辑回归模型,效果较好(R~2=28.9%,AUC=0.82).年龄对模型效果影响较大(R~2=22.9%,AUC=0.77),结合BMI及68个SNPs时AUC达到最大(约0.89).本研究表明MPB在欧洲和东亚人群中存在较强的遗传异质性,选取SNPs子集能达到与全集相近的预测准确性,预测模型有助于东亚人群MPB遗传机制的理解及疾病的早期诊断和预防.     

基于不同可加性方法的黑龙江省红松人工林林分生物量模型

大尺度估算森林生物量一直是人们关注的焦点,而构建林分水平的生物量模型是一种估算森林乔木层生物量的方法。本研究基于聚合法1、聚合法2、平差法、分解法构建红松人工林林分生物量模型,并对比分析4种可加性方法的预测精度,为黑龙江省红松人工林的生物量预测提供科学依据。各模型均使用权函数来消除各模型的异方差,并以留一交叉验证法(LOOCV)作为各模型的检验方法。结果表明: 平差法的整体预测能力略优于聚合法1、聚合法2和分解法,预测精度排序为平差法>聚合法1>聚合法2>分解法;分别对比不同林分断面积的预测能力时,4种可加性方法的预测精度不一致。当红松人工林的林分断面积分布于0～10或50～60 m²·hm^-2区间时,建议采用分解法的参数估计值,而林分断面积分布于其他区间时,建议采用平差法的参数估计值。     

罗霄山脉翼手目物种多样性及适生区预测

罗霄山脉位于中国大陆东南部, 是一条南北走向的大型山脉, 面积约6.76万km²。该山脉位于欧亚大陆东部季风区, 生物多样性丰富, 是亚洲东部第三纪冰期动物重要的避难所。为了解罗霄山脉翼手目物种多样性状况, 本研究组于2013-2018年, 使用雾网、手网和竖琴网等工具开展了针对性调查与标本采集, 同时运用形态分类学和分子系统发生学方法鉴定物种。根据调查结果并结合文献记载: 罗霄山脉地区现有翼手目物种4科14属40种, 其中罗霄山脉翼手目新记录种25种, 省级翼手目分布新记录种9种。同时, 本研究基于5年的调查采集位点, 使用生物多样 性与气候变化虚拟实验室(the Biodiversity & Climate Change Virtual Laboratory)在线生境预测平台, 对罗霄山脉翼手目物种当前的适生区, 以及3种不同量温室气体排放情景下(representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6 / 6.0 / 8.5) 2050年的适生区进行预测, 其中随机森林算法(random forest)的模型解释力较优, 其预测结果显示: 影响该区域翼手目分布的主要环境因子为降水季节性和年平均温度; 山脉中部及南部为翼手目的高适生区, 面积约为罗霄山脉的30%; 与当前适生区相比, RCP 2.6情景下2050年该类群适生区有所扩增, RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5情景下均会导致翼手目适生区急剧缩减, 且分布区将迁移至高海拔区域以响应气候变化。而本项目的开展不仅初步掌握了罗霄山脉翼手目物种多样性本底状况, 也为开展后续的翼手目研究和保护管理提供了参考。     

Correlation between chronological age and skeletal age using cvmi and modified MP3 methods

Chronological age conveys only a rough approximation of the maturational status of a person whereas skeletal maturity indicators give a more accurate estimation. Therefore, it is of interest to document the correlation between chronological and skeletal age using CVMI and modified MP3 methods. A total of 39 subjects between the age ranges of 9-16 years were selected for this study. Pre-treatment lateral cephalograms and hand-wrist radiographs of the subjects were used. The skeletal age was analyzed by the Cervical Vertebrae Maturity Index (CVMI) and modified MP3 methods. The data was analyzed with SPSS software version 23.00. Kendall''s Tau correlation test was performed to estimate the correlation between chronological age and skeletal age among the subjects and a linear regression test was also performed. Positive correlation was found between chronological age and skeletal age assessed by CVMI method (r= 0.398) and modified MP3 method (r=0.382) with p value >0.003. Thus it can be concluded that there was a positive correlation between chronological age and skeletal age among all the subjects.