Allowing for human socioeconomic impacts in the conservation of plants under climate change

Abstract

The impact of climate change on conservation planning is affected by the availability of data (especially in data-sparse countries) and socioeconomic impacts. We build models using MaxEnt for Egyptian medicinal plants as a model system, projecting them to different future times under two IPCC 4th assessment emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) assuming unlimited and no dispersal. We compare the effect of two indices of socioeconomic activity [Human Influence Index (HII) and human population density/km²] as cost layers in spatial prioritization for conservation using zonation. We assess the efficacy of Egypt's network of Protected Areas (PAs) by comparing the predicted conservation value inside and outside each PA under the various scenarios. The results show that there are many locations in Egypt (the main cities, agricultural land, coastal areas) that are highly ranked for conservation before human socioeconomic impacts are included. The HII had a stronger impact than using human population density. The PA value excess (inside–outside) varied significantly with the type of cost and dispersal, but not with climate-change scenario or Zonation settings. We conclude that human socioeconomic impacts add new scope and insights for future conservation; and conservation planning without consideration of such impacts cannot be complete.     

A partitioning approach for regional sustainability based on economic development indicators and ecological values for China

With the acceleration of China's urbanization and economic development, the ecological conditions of some areas have deteriorated, which has seriously affected the balance of ecological sustainability and socio-economic development. Therefore, how to formulate scientific partitioning strategies for both regional socio-economic development and ecological protection has become a key issue. Aimed at maintaining and improving regional sustainability, we established a partitioning indicator system of China considering 19 value indicators. We constructed the separate sets of the ecological values and economic-development values layers. Based on these two categories, China is classified into four types of functional areas, which are defined as key protected area, development area, low-tension area and conflict area. Finally, the Zonation model was used to identify the important regions of ecological sublayers, then these regions were overlapped with the conflict area to identify the key regions in conflict status which need more attention for ecological sustainability. The main research results are as follows: The ecological situation is generally better in southern China, while the development degree is higher in eastern China. The partitioning map shows that key protected areas mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and parts of northeast China, and the existing nature reserves can protect most of the high-value regions of protected areas. In addition, most of the land in southeast China is identified as conflict areas. Though only 12% of high-quality habitats identified by Zonation are located in conflict areas, but nearly one-third of these habitats are in extreme-conflict status. The research results can provide a scientific basis for decision-making agencies to optimize regional ecological value and socio-economic benefits for regional sustainability.     

The role of water depth and soil temperature in determining initial composition of prairie wetland coenoclines

In this study, we examined the effects of water depth and temperature on seedling recruitment from a prairie wetland seed bank. We collected seed-bank samples from natural and restored prairie pothole wetlands in northwestern Iowa and combined them into a single sample. We examined seedling recruitment from this seed-bank sample in an experimental study using a factorial design of 4 temperature treatments (5° night and 15° day to 20° night and 30° day) and 3 water-depth treatments (0, 2, and 7 cm).Principal Components Analysis showed that both water depth and temperature had significant effects on the composition of the seedling community as measured by changes in relative stem density and biomass. Water depth had its strongest effects on stem density while temperature had its strongest effects on biomass.For the 22 most common species, stem density varied with water depth for 95% of the species and with temperature for 50% of the species. Most species with water depth responses had lower stem counts as water depth increased, and for the majority of species with temperature responses stem density increased with temperature.Total, annual, and perennial species richness was negatively correlated with water depth. Total and annual species richness was positively correlated to temperature, while perennial species richness was unresponsive to temperature. In addition, species found at low elevations as adults emerged at higher rates in the deep water treatments while species that occurred at higher elevations as adults had their highest emergence rates in the low water treatments.Our results suggest that differences in environmental conditions along coenoclines can affect the initial distribution of species emerging from the soil seed bank. Water depth sorted seedlings according to their adult water-depth tolerances, and temperature determined the proportion of annuals in the seedling community.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

西双版纳望天树种群带状与分层格局

采用相邻格子样方法取样数据,应用方差／均值比率法,负二项分布法,Ｄａｖｉｄ和Ｍｏｏｒｅ丛生指数,Ｌｌｏｙｄ平均拥挤指标、聚块指标和分散指标,Ｈｉｌｌ格局强度分析等方法探讨了我国热带珍稀濒危及标志种望天树（Ｓｈｏｒｅａｃｈｉｎｅｎｓｉｓ）种群的带状分布和分层格局,结果表明其带状格局为群聚格局,但群聚程度、聚块尺度和格局强度随年龄增大为“小一大一小”的趋势变化。种群分层格局从幼灌层到乔Ａ层为“群聚一随机一均匀”模式,与密度相关的群聚强度指标随年龄增大而线性下降,与密度无关的群聚强度指标呈“小一大一小”变化模式,但变幅较小。     

A theory of the spatial and temporal dynamics of plant communities

An individual-based model of plant competition for light that uses a definition of plant functional types based on adaptations for the simultaneous use of water and light can reproduce the fundamental spatial and temporal patterns of plant communities. This model shows that succession and zonation result from the same basic processes. Succession is interpreted as a temporal shift in species dominance, primarily in response to autogenic changes in light availability. Zonation is interpreted as a spatial shift in species dominance, primarily in response to the effect of allogenic changes in water availability on the dynamics of competition for light. Patterns of succession at different points along a moisture gradient can be used to examine changes in the ecological roles of various functional types, as well as to address questions of shifts in patterns of resource use through time.Our model is based on the cost-benefit concept that plant adaptations for the simultaneous use of two or more resources are limited by physiological and life history constraints. Three general sets of adaptive constraints produce inverse correlations in the ability of plants to efficiently use (1) light at both high and low availability, (2) water at both high and low availability, and (3) both water and light at low availabilities.The results of this type of individual-based model can be aggregated to examine phenomena at several levels of system organization (i.e., subdisciplines of ecology), including (1) plant growth responses over a range of environmental conditions, (2) population dynamics and size structure, (3) experimental and field observations on the distribution of species across environmental gradients, (4) studies of successional pattern, (5) plant physiognomy and community structure across environmental gradients, and (6) nutrient cycling.     

The use of GIS techniques to quantify the hydrological regime of a karst wetland (Skealoghan turlough) in Ireland

Question: Can GIS and GPS technology be used to quantify the hydrological regime of different plant communities on turloughs (groundwater dependent calcareous wetlands)? Location: Skealoghan turlough, County Mayo, Ireland. Methods: Plant communities were mapped and digitised with GIS software and a digital elevation model of the site was constructed from differential GPS data. Together with records of water level fluctuations on the site from May 2001 to May 2004, these data were used to calculate hydrological variables for each plant community. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to identify groups of plant communities with similar hydrological regimes. Results: 15 plant communities were mapped at Skea loghan, with the Cirsio‐Molinietum and Ranunculo‐Potentilletum anserinae being the dominant phytosociological associations. Skealoghan is subject to large temporal and spatial variation in its hydrological regime and fluctuations in water level are intrinsically linked to rainfall. The spatial variation in flooding can be linked to the vegetation zones. Conclusions: GIS and DGPS technology can be used to quantify the hydrological regime of different plant communities on turloughs. Since the hydrological regime is a major environmental factor controlling the vegetation composition of the site, the maintenance of natural flooding regimes is a vital component for the conservation and management of the diverse vegetation mosaic at Skealoghan turlough.     

Accessory respiration in the climbing perch anabas scandens

Eleven species of blackfly larvae were collected in a survey of Upper Teesdale streams, Northern England. Their distribution in these streams is given. In one stream, Moss Burn, which was studied in detail, a zonation of species occurred along its length and changes in species composition are described for one part of the stream in three summers.Part of the work included in this paper was undertaken while the author was a member of the Department of Zoology, University of Newcastle upon TynePart of the work included in this paper was undertaken while the author was a member of the Department of Zoology, University of Newcastle upon Tyne     

Zonation of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) and spiders (Araneida) in salt marshes at the North and the Baltic Sea and the impact of the predicted sea level increase

The ground beetles and spiders of two salt marshes at the German Northand Baltic Sea coast were investigated by pitfall traps in 1997 and 1998. Whilethe sites at the North Sea coast are tidal salt marshes, the salt marshes at theBaltic Sea are not influenced by tides. Pitfall traps were installed in agradient from 20 to 150 cm above MHT (mean high tide: 157cm + NN, NN: 500 cm above 0 at Amsterdam gauge) atthe North Sea coast or NN at the Baltic Sea coast at six or sevensampling elevations, each with five replicates. Conductivity, water content, organic substance,frequency or duration of floodings, sand content and pH of the soil weredetermined. The flooding regime is the major factor controlling the zonation ofinvertebrates. Two and three invertebrate assemblages at the North and BalticSea, respectively, were distinguished. These corresponded well with thevegetational zones. The border between the two zones was at 60–80cm above MHT at the North Sea. The three zones at the Baltic Seaextended between 20 and 30 cm, 40 to 80 cm and 100 to150 cm above NN. The elevation of the mean abundance of speciesabove MHT or NN was calculated. A tide simulation experiment resulted in ashifting population and in an increasing activity under a tidal regime aspredicted for the global climate change conditions in 2050. From the actualelevation of the mean abundance, the habitat size of salt marsh species wascalculated for a moderate and worse scenario of global climate change. Habitatreduction becomes highest for species of the lower salt marsh zone. Under worseconditions the gradiental length of habitat will only amount to a maximum of 20m at the slopes of the dikes.