Human Interindividual Variability in Cancer Risks—Technical and Management Challenges

Existing risk assessment procedures for carcinogens are intended to be “conservative” in the uncertainty dimension—giving estimates that are expected to be higher than true risks for typical people. However, these procedures do not consider the likely variability in susceptibility among individual people. This paper updates previous estimates of the likely extent of this variability for metabolically activated, genetically-acting carcinogens based on recent information on human interindividual variability in metabolic activation, detoxification, and DNA repair. The resulting expected skewness of cancer risk distributions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of both variability and uncertainty.

Some risk management implications are:

1. When evaluating the fairness of a particular risk distribution, managers need to gain familiarity with a three-dimensional characterization—X level of risk, for the Yth percentile individual (addressing variability) with Z degree of confidence (addressing uncertainty).

2. To the extent that variability distributions are skewed (e.g., with a long tail extending to high values) population mean risks will tend to exceed risks for median individuals. Together with the skewness in uncertainty distributions, this implies that “expected value” estimates of aggregate population risks—the estimates of interest for cost benefit analyses—are likely to be closer to traditional upper confidence limit risk estimates than has often been assumed in the past.

The role of the National Trust in the conservation of British butterflies

The National Trust is of paramount importance in the conservation of butterflies in the UK on account of the scale of its land holding and its ability to manage habitats beneficially. Fifty two of the fifty four species currently regarded as resident in Britain occur on Trust land. The Trust has major responsibilities for the conservation of all bar one of the British rarities, and is of special significance in the conservation of the high brown fritillary and heath fritillary, two protected species. The Trust owns some 35 areas (many of which are large) of national importance for butterflies, plus much other property where the butterfly fauna is of regional importance. The Trust is implementing many dynamic projects aimed at conserving rare species, maintains a butterfly site data base and is developing a butterfly population monitoring programme. It is well placed to address the key issue of butterfly conservation on a metapopulation scale. To do this, it must work in partnership with other conservation organizations.     

Towards an understanding of the relations between tree nutrition,nutrient cycling and environment

The paper contains a discussion of the interrelations between the sciences used by managers of forest land to improve their management, in particular with respect to the plant nutrient economy of the forest ecosystems. Both site studies and studies of nutrient cycling have been carried out for long periods without proper consideration of tree nutrition. Therefore these studies contributed less to the understanding of the role of nutrients as regulators of processes in ecosystems than might have been expected. This situation has improved, especially within the last decade. In addition the necessity to manage forest land for environmental values as well as for forest yield requires new interdisciplinary approaches in the study of the roles of plant nutrients in the forest. Even more branches of biological and environmental sciences than those just mentioned must be involved.     

Fishing spots and sea tenure: Incipient forms of local management in Atlantic forest coastal communities

Recent work has dealt with the local management of aquatic resources as an alternative to Hardin's (1968) tragedy of the commons. In communities with no formal management of resources, informal ownership of fishing spots or conflicts with outside competitors may determine the basis for future local management. In this study, I analyze the use of aquatic resources by five fishing communities on the Atlantic Forest coast of southeast Brazil: Búzios Island, Puruba, and Picinguaba in São Paulo State, and Jaguanum and Itacuruçá Islands at Sepetiba Bay in Rio de Janeiro State. Informal ownership of fishing spots, used for set gillnet fishing, is regulated by kin ties at Búzios Island. The artisanal fishers of Sepetiba Bay, especially those from Jaguanum Island, have a conflict with Bay intruders, such as the shrimp and herring trawlers. Two coastal communities, Puruba and Picinguaba, have conflicts with fishing regulations from a State Park (Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar),created in 1977. The transformation of populated areas of the Atlantic Forest to Extractive Reserves might be a way to avoid conflicts with intruders and with governmental agencies, and to involve local populations in management. Kinship rules at Búzios Island and the territorial behavior of fishers at Sepetiba Bay may form a basis for local organization.     

Rehabilitating degraded forests in Central Europe into self–sustaining forest ecosystems

There is a need for a consistent forest restoration strategy for the `Black Triangle', Central Europe. In the past 50 years, forests in this area have been heavily affected by industrial pollution. Recently, the amount of pollutants has decreased. This means that effective forest restoration programmes can be started. Forest decline must be seen as an ecological disturbance which cannot be solved by applying technical measures only. An ecosystem approach to forest restoration must be introduced into restoration policy and management. Basic principles and working methods of such an approach are briefly described and proposals are made for forest restoration policy, management and research in the area.     

Biology and Host Range of the Green-seed Weevil, Sibinia fastigiata , for Biological Control of Mimosa pigra

Aspects of the biology and host range of Sibinia fastigiata Clark (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) were studied to assess its safety for release in Australia as a biological control agent of the weed Mimosa pigra L . (Mimosaceae) . Larvae feed on the seeds and adults on open flowers of their host . Adults oviposit on to immature seeds 3 mm long or less and hence seeds of this length and maturity were used in the host range tests and for rearing . Females are shown to avoid previously attacked seeds enhancing their effectiveness as seed destroyers . Survival of adults was higher when provided with open flowers . The host range was determined using laboratory control - choice oviposition tests on excised plant material and , in the field in the native range , no - choice oviposition tests on living plants , surveys of adults on plants , and breeding of insects from pods of plants of various legume species . The control - choice oviposition tests employed a new design in which the control plant alone was offered to the insects followed by a choice of test plants species . Other than M. pigra, only one plant species was acceptable for oviposition , the closely related M. asperata. Larval development also occurs on M. asperata and this host is occasionally used in the field . This insect was approved for release in March 1997 .     

Isozymes and DNA markers in gene conservation of forest trees

For long-lived plants that have to cope with high temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneity, genetic diversity is of prime importance for species persistence. Detrimental anthropogenic impact on the gene pool of forest trees calls for conservation of genetic resources. Potentials and limitations of isozymes and DNA markers in forest genetic conservation are reviewed. These markers can contribute to conservation with respect to the delimitations of species and hybrid zones, as well as the assessment of genetic diversity within and among populations. Markers are valuable to identify resource populations, since today‘s genetic diversity in forest trees is predominantly the result of plant history (e.g. glacial refuges, migration). Several suggestions have been put forward to optimize sampling of in situ or ex situ populations on the grounds of marker data. Restraint in this area is recommended. Different types of genetic markers (terpenes, isozymes, nuclear and extrachromosomal DNA polymorphisms) and quantitative traits yield different information about genetic diversity and population differentiation. Hence identification of resource populations should not solely be based upon a certain marker type or on quantitative traits alone. The capability of available markers to predict or assess adaptive potentials in forest tree populations is still very limited. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Conservation and management issues of Prespa National Park

The present article describes the human activities inthe area and their changes and trends, given that thecontemporary nature conservation key issues areclosely related to past and present socio-economic andcultural conditions, both within Prespa itself andoutside of it. The liberation of Prespa, a remote andrather socially isolated borderline area, from Ottoman occupation took place in 1912–13. Recentevents in its environmental history have been forestclearings and human depopulation in the Civil War(1944–49), irrigation system construction in the1960s, its discovery by ornithologists in the late1960s, the high emigration rates of 1960–1980, itsdesignation as a National Park in 1974, thedestructive development works of 1984–86 afterGreeces entry to the EEC and the conversion to intensivebean cultivation in the mid 1980s.The human population of ca 7000 at the start of thiscentury suffered an almost 80% decrease after theCivil War. A resettlement in the mid 1950s increasedthe population by 40% but in the 1970s emigrationreduced it to its previous size of around 1500, stillits present size. The extensive and diverse farmingsystems of previous centuries changed gradually afterthe construction of an irrigation network in the1960s, which twenty years later and along withinternational changes in production and economypatterns, made possible the present day domination ofa bean monoculture within irrigated croplands. Thiswas accompanied by increased energy inputs,mechanisation and the use of chemicals.Intensification of agriculture brought increasedincomes which attracted also livestock keepers,resulting in a 56% decrease in numbers of livestockin 1964–1993. Cattle are presently kept for meatproduction only. They graze on the mountains, and nolonger in the meadows around the lakeshore. A localshorthorn breed accounting for 93% of all cattle in1963 declined to less than 18% in 1993. Fishing aimedmainly at carp and Prespa bleak, continues today as inthe past to be a source of supplementary income.Eighty-six per cent of the – mainly oak and beech –forests are State owned and the rest belong to localmunicipalities. The forest area has not changedessentially in the last 40 years, but forest roadshave expanded. Forests provide mainly fuelwood forlocal needs and small quantities of industrial timber.No specific management is conducted to safeguard theconservation values of the forest, the majority ofwhich consists of even aged coppiced stands withlimited value for wildlife. Manufacturing never playedan important role for the economy of the area. Tourismhas increased in the last 20 years, concentratedmainly in summer and spring. Accommodation in thevillages is not yet satisfactory though it hasimproved enormously in recent years. The NationalParks infrastructure for visitors remains poor.Tourist pressure generally is not yet that high toimpact drastically the social and environmentalfabric. In places, hunting, angling and poaching cannegatively affect the target species. The constructionof the irrigation network in the eastern part of LakeMikri Prespa was the most important change to thelandscape and the habitats of Prespa the last 30years. It resulted in the embankment of free-flowingstreams, drainage of wet meadows and dramaticreduction of trees and hedges. In the last 15 years,the reedbeds, no longer burnt or mowed and assisted byincreased nutrient loadings from agricultural runoff,have expanded landward to occupy formerly open,periodically flooded, areas. The above changes inhabitats and land use have brought an impoverishmentof biodiversity which can be seen in the exterminationor the decrease in the numbers of certain plant andbird species.The problems preventing a better management of theNational Park and the perpetuation of its values areinappropriate legislation, the poor degree ofcoordination of the public services, the lack of botha specific National Park Service in Greece and amanagement authority for the Park and the hostileattitude of local people due to their limitedinformation and involvement. The scenic beauty, thewetlands and a number of rare habitats, the diversityof habitats, flora and fauna, the endemic life forms,the rare mammals and the colonial waterbirds, thelocal architecture and the cultural expressions suchas the Byzantine monuments, are the values of Prespathat must be preserved as a whole. The initialconservation efforts aimed at preserving biodiversitybut later it became apparent that not only are humansan inseparable part of the whole, but additionally,several of their extensive activities have contributedsubstantially to the rich biodiversity of the area.Through the prerequisites of keeping a balance betweenprimary and tertiary sector activities and ofrevitalizing the social fabric, the following are thekey management and conservation issues of today: anunequivocal agreement on the values to be preservedand their limits; the formation of a managementauthority; a new realistic protection and land usezoning; the diversification and extensification of allfarming activities; the restoration of the wet meadowhabitats; the ensuring of a high water level and agood water quality for both lakes through tri-lateralcooperation between Greece, Albania and FYROM; and theestablishment of a permanent environmental monitoringscheme.     

三化螟种群系统的最优管理决策

以三化螟Tryporyza invertulas(Walker)种群动态模型和水稻产量损失预测模型为基础,根据水稻插植期、品种抗性,保护利用自然天敌和杀虫剂多次使用等控制措施以及它们的各种不同组合对该虫种群动态、水稻产量损失串和净收益的影响,以净收益最大为目标函数,研究三化螟种群的最优管理决策。其中,对昆虫种群动态模拟方法作了一点改进,它综合了前人所提出的种群动态模型的优点。建立的系统模型能够提供包括农业防治、生物防治和化学防治措施在内的、对三化螟种群实施有效管理的最优决策方案。