Complexity and stability revisited

Since Robert May's work on random community matrices it has been known that stability tends to decrease with complexity. Recently, it was shown that this is not necessarily true in competitive ecosystems. We investigated the stability of random ecosystems and found that it can largely be predicted by simple matrix statistics such as the mean and the variance of the interaction coefficients. We use this to explain why stability can increase as well as decrease with complexity in ecological communities. We argue that the variance, and to a lesser extent the mean, of the interaction coefficients go a long way in explaining patterns in the stability of ecosystems.     

Epidemiological consequences of a newly discovered cryptic subgroup of Anopheles gambiae

A cryptic subgroup of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto mosquitoes was recently discovered in West Africa. This 'GOUNDRY' subgroup has increased susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum, the most deadly form of malaria. Unusual for this major malaria vector, GOUNDRY mosquitoes also seem to bite exclusively outdoors. A mathematical model is developed to assess the epidemiological implications of current vector control tools, bednets and indoor residual spray, preferentially suppressing the more typical indoor biting mosquitoes. It is demonstrated that even if the GOUNDRY mosquitoes have a decreased preference for human blood, vector controls which select for increased GOUNDRY abundance relative to their indoor biting counterparts risks intensifying malaria transmission. Given the widely observed phenomenon of outdoor biting by major malaria vectors, this behaviour should not be ignored in future modelling efforts and warrants serious consideration in control programme strategy.     

Superorganisms or loose collections of species? A unifying theory of community patterns along environmental gradients

The question whether communities should be viewed as superorganisms or loose collections of individual species has been the subject of a long‐standing debate in ecology. Each view implies different spatiotemporal community patterns. Along spatial environmental gradients, the organismic view predicts that species turnover is discontinuous, with sharp boundaries between communities, while the individualistic view predicts gradual changes in species composition. Using a spatially explicit multispecies competition model, we show that organismic and individualistic forms of community organisation are two limiting cases along a continuum of outcomes. A high variance of competition strength leads to the emergence of organism‐like communities due to the presence of alternative stable states, while weak and uniform interactions induce gradual changes in species composition. Dispersal can play a confounding role in these patterns. Our work highlights the critical importance of considering species interactions to understand and predict the responses of species and communities to environmental changes.     

Modelling responses of pine savannas to climate change and large‐scale disturbance

Global warming can potentially influence ecological communities through altered disturbance regimes in addition to increased temperatures. We investigate the response of pine savannas in the southeastern United States to global warming using a simple Lotka‐Volterra competition model together with predicted changes to fire and hurricane disturbance regimes with global climate change. In the southeastern United States, decreased frequency of both fires and hurricanes with global warming will shift pine savannas toward a forested state. A CO₂ fertilization effect that increases the growth rate of tree populations will also push southeastern landscapes from open savannas towards closed forests. Transient dynamics associated with climate driven changes in vegetation will last on the order of decades to a century. In our model, the sensitivity of savannas to relative changes in the frequency of fire versus hurricanes is linearly dependent on the growth rate and mortality of trees in fire and hurricane disturbances.     

Evaluation of cytotoxicity,oxidative stress and organ-specific effects of activated carbon from Al-Baha date palm kernels

BackgroundActivated carbon (AC) is a carbonaceous material derived from carbonization and activation of carbon-containing compounds at high temperature and has a large surface area, providing it with excellent adsorption properties. Human exposure to ACs via ingestion is increasing and, unfortunately, there is little to no evidence related to its level of toxicityMaterials and methodsActivated carbon of powdered date kernels from Al-Baha city in Saudi Arabia were used to treat rats and cell lines (HepG2 and HCT-116). Toxicity, microbiological tests and biochemical analyses were carried out to investigate biological activity of both commercially available AC (CAC), pharmaceutical AC (PAC) and AC from date palm kernels (AAC)ResultsNone of the ACs showed activity on Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Protius mirabilis and Escherichia coli. AAC showed the most cytotoxic effect on both HCT-116 and HepG2 cell lines after 24 h, with IC50 of 48.7 ± 17.2 µg/ml and 51 ± 6.24 µg/ml respectively. Rats treated with AAC for 48 h showed no impairment of hepatic and renal functions, unlike those exposed to CAC and PAC. Similarly, AAC-exposed rats did not show oxidative stress in both the liver and kidneys while CAC and PAC exposure resulted in depletion of CAT, GPx, SOD and GSH in both organs. L-arginase and α-fucosidase expression were also induced by both PAC and CAC while α-fucosidase levels were unaffected in AAC-exposed ratsConclusionAAC appears to be biologically safe compared with PAC and CAC due to its antioxidant activities and non-effect on both hepatic and renal functions.     

Ovule differences between single-kernelled and double-kernelled fruits in almond (Prunus dulcis)

In order to detect differences between almond cultivars that commonly produce one or two seeds, we compared ovule sizes and developmental stages at anthesis and three days after anthesis. The results showed that the presence of only small differences in size between primary and secondary ovules during flowering seemed to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for the production of double‐kernelled fruits. In contrast, differences in the developmental stage of both ovules did not prevent the production of double kernels. Large differences in ovule size at anthesis or in the following days resulted in fruits with single seeds. The behaviour of the secondary ovules in cultivars producing fruit with single seeds was very different, even in closely related cultivars. The degeneration of the secondary ovule seems to be genetically programmed and follows a genotype‐dependent pattern.     

Predicting abundances of plants and pollinators using a simple compartmental mutualistic model

Key gaps to be filled in population and community ecology are predicting the strength of species interactions and linking pattern with process to understand species coexistence and their relative abundances. In the case of mutualistic webs, like plant–pollinator networks, advances in understanding species abundances are currently limited, mainly owing to the lack of methodological tools to deal with the intrinsic complexity of mutualisms. Here, we propose an aggregation method leading to a simple compartmental mutualistic population model that captures both qualitatively and quantitatively the size-segregated populations observed in a Mediterranean community of nectar-producing plant species and nectar-searching animal species. We analyse the issue of optimal aggregation level and its connection with the trade-off between realism and overparametrization. We show that aggregation of both plants and pollinators into five size classes or compartments leads to a robust model with only two tunable parameters. Moreover, if, in each compartment, (i) the interaction coefficients fulfil the condition of weak mutualism and (ii) the mutualism is facultative for at least one party of the compartment, then the interactions between different compartments are sufficient to guarantee global stability of the equilibrium population.     

Competition systems with periodic coefficients: A geometric approach

The classical two-species competition system is modified to include coefficients which are time-periodic with the same period. We show first that all (nonnegative) solutions converge to a periodic one, having the same period, thus excluding subharmonics. The global structure of the set of all periodic solutions is then investigated. This is accomplished by developing a geometric theory of the discrete dynamical system defined by the iterates of the period map T. It turns out, in particular, that periodic solutions appear which have no counterpart in the corresponding time-averaged system: thus oscillations in the environment may cause the two species to coexist in an oscillatory regime even if the corresponding averaged system would force either of the two species to extinction.     

Large ecosystems in transition: Bifurcations and mass extinction

We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we introduce a feedback between species abundances and resources via abiotic factors. This model is apparently the first of its kind to include a feedback mechanism coupling climate and population dynamics. Moreover, we take into account self-limitation effects. The model explains the coexistence of many species, yet also displays the possibility of catastrophic bifurcations, where all species become extinct under the influence of abiotic factors. We show that as these factors change there are different regimes of ecosystem behavior, including a possibly chaotic regime when abiotic influences are sufficiently strong.     

Genetic and ecological dynamics of species replacement in an arid-land river system

Museum records indicate that Hybognathus placitus was introduced into the Pecos River, New Mexico during the early 1960s. Approximately 10 years later, a congener, Hybognathus amarus, was extirpated from the system. We used microsatellite and mtDNA data, ecological data and modelling, and a computer simulation approach to reconstruct the history of invasion and species replacement. To identify the potential role of hybridization and introgression, we genetically screened H. amarus (n = 389) from the Rio Grande, New Mexico, and H. placitus (n = 424) from the Pecos River, New Mexico using four nuclear microsatellites and a partial fragment of the mtDNA ND4 gene. Assignment tests excluded hybridization as a primary factor in species replacement and suggested a role for interspecific competition. Genetic analyses showed that H. placitus were introduced into the Pecos River from at least two genetically distinct source populations in the Canadian and Red rivers, Oklahoma. Lotka-Volterra models of interspecific competition indicated that the number of founding individuals could have been as few as 20 for H. placitus to have competitively displaced H. amarus in the Pecos River in 10 to 15 generations. Observed differences of allele frequencies between source and founder populations indicated that between 32 and 115 H. placitus individuals founded the Pecos River. Genetic and ecological data suggest that interspecific competition could have led to species replacement in this arid-land river system.