Optimization of economic policies and investment projects using a fuzzy logic based cost-effectiveness model of coral reef quality: empirical results for Montego Bay, Jamaica

 For effective mitigation of human impacts, quantitative models are required that facilitate a comprehensive analysis of the effects of human activity on reefs. Fuzzy logic procedures generate a complex dose-response surface that models the relationships among coral abundance and various inputs (e.g., physical damage, sedimentation, nutrient influx), within the context of the abiotic marine environment. This is linked to a nonlinear economic structure incorporating technical interventions (e.g., pollution treatment) and policy interventions (e.g., taxation) in eight economic sectors. Optimization provides insights into the most cost-effective means for protecting coral reefs under different reef quality targets. The research demonstrates that: (1) it is feasible to use fuzzy logic to model complex interactions in coral reef ecosystems; and, (2) conventional economic procedures for modeling cost-effectiveness can result in sub-optimal policy choices when applied to complex systems such as coral reefs. In Montego Bay, Jamaica, up to a 20% increase in coral abundance may be achievable through using appropriate policy measures having a present value cost of US$153 million over 25 years; a 10% increase is achievable at a cost of US$12 million. Accepted: 20 June 1999     

Validity and reproducibility of benthic cover estimates made during broadscale surveys of coral reefs by manta tow

 There is limited information on the validity and reproducibility of estimates of benthic cover from manta tow surveys. To address this, benthic cover estimates from the same reef area were compared (i) among observers and (ii) with an independent assessment using under-water video. Benthic cover was classified into 11 categories. There was generally unbiased agreement within one cover category, both among observers (89%) and for comparisons between manta tow and video (86%). While estimates of dead coral cover were reproducible, they were not valid because the concordance between observer estimates and video estimates was not greater than would be expected by chance. Manta tow estimates of the cover of sand and rubble were biased in that they consistently overestimated sand and rubble cover in comparison with estimates from video. The results indicate that manta towing is generally effective for the broadscale estimation of live coral cover, providing observers receive adequate training. Accepted: 25 June 1999     

太湖典型入湖河流莲花荡浮游动物群落的季节演替及其环境指示意义初步研究

2015年对宜兴莲花荡水系四个季节浮游动物调查,共鉴定出浮游动物136种,其中,原生动物72种、轮虫39种、枝角类13种、桡足类9种、其他幼虫及卵3种。群落结构以原生动物和轮虫小型浮游动物为主。浮游动物的年平均密度为14 664 ind/L,年平均生物量为4.903 mg/L,生物多样性指数H′年平均值为2.26。浮游动物密度以及生物量随季节变化比较明显。对浮游动物密度、生物量、多样性指数与水质指标进行Pearson相关性分析,发现总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH4+-N)以及溶解氧(DO)是影响浮游动物密度的主要因素。结合生物多样性指数评价方法以及优势种情况,判定莲花荡水系整体处于中污型。     

Does a reduction in the price of rhino horn prevent poaching?

Rhino poaching around the world has increased inordinately, to the extent that concerns exist over the possible survival of the species. An open access rhino poaching model is developed for South African rhino. The model is a hybrid dynamical model, as both a system dynamics model as well as a Bayesian network model are developed. The system dynamics model is used to estimate the unknown parameter values (through optimisation) and also to determine the intervals for the parameters. These intervals are then used in the Bayesian Belief Network model to assess uncertainty. Hybrid approaches improve the ability to validate models compared with conventional modelling. The resultant model indicates that reducing the price of rhino horn would not be effective at curbing poaching, unless poacher costs are also increased. However, increasing poacher costs is not a realistic policy option since these costs are largely beyond the control of decision-makers. The insensitivity of price to poaching effort has implications for methods proposed to reduce the value of rhinos, such as introducing synthetic rhino horn and the de-horning of rhinos.     

结直肠癌患者血清基质金属蛋白酶水平及其临床意义

目的:探讨结直肠癌患者血清基质金属蛋白酶水平及其临床意义。方法:采用Bio-plex200悬浮芯片系统检测33例结直肠癌患者(其中13例为结直肠癌转移患者,20例为结直肠癌非转移组)和30例正常对照组血清中基质金属蛋白酶(MMP)-1、2、3、7、8、9、10、12、13的浓度。结果:与正常对照组相比,结直肠癌患者血清MMP-2、MMP-7、MMP-8、MMP-9、MMP-10、MMP-13的浓度显著上调(P0.05),而MMP-1、MMP-3、MMP-12的浓度并无显著性差异(P0.05);与结直肠癌非转移组患者相比,结直肠癌转移组患者血清MMP-2和MMP-7的浓度显著升高(MMP-2:P=0.029;MMP-7:P=0.002)。结论:基质金属蛋白酶可能在结直肠癌的发生、发展过程中起重要作用;MMP-2和MMP-7可能成为结直肠癌发生和转移的预测和评估指标。     

A hidden Markov movement model for rapidly identifying behavioral states from animal tracks

Electronic telemetry is frequently used to document animal movement through time. Methods that can identify underlying behaviors driving specific movement patterns can help us understand how and why animals use available space, thereby aiding conservation and management efforts. For aquatic animal tracking data with significant measurement error, a Bayesian state‐space model called the first‐Difference Correlated Random Walk with Switching (DCRWS) has often been used for this purpose. However, for aquatic animals, highly accurate tracking data are now becoming more common. We developed a new hidden Markov model (HMM) for identifying behavioral states from animal tracks with negligible error, called the hidden Markov movement model (HMMM). We implemented as the basis for the HMMM the process equation of the DCRWS, but we used the method of maximum likelihood and the R package TMB for rapid model fitting. The HMMM was compared to a modified version of the DCRWS for highly accurate tracks, the DCRWS, and to a common HMM for animal tracks fitted with the R package moveHMM. We show that the HMMM is both accurate and suitable for multiple species by fitting it to real tracks from a grey seal, lake trout, and blue shark, as well as to simulated data. The HMMM is a fast and reliable tool for making meaningful inference from animal movement data that is ideally suited for ecologists who want to use the popular DCRWS implementation and have highly accurate tracking data. It additionally provides a groundwork for development of more complex modeling of animal movement with TMB. To facilitate its uptake, we make it available through the R package swim.     

Elemental signatures of Acanthochromis polyacanthus otoliths from the Great Barrier Reef have significant temporal, spatial, and between-brood variation

We evaluated the spatial and temporal scales over which otolith signatures varied in a reef fish on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using the non-dispersing damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus. We found a robust multi-element separation in otolith signatures from reef clusters in the northern and southern GBR. Variance components indicated that this spatial scale accounted for the majority of the variation in two elemental ratios (Ba/Ca and Sr/Ca) over the 2 years of the study. There was also significant variation in elemental signatures between otoliths collected over two consecutive years, as well as within a season. Individual reefs within clusters were less distinguishable based on otolith chemistry and were probably observed by differences within reefs (among sites and broods within sites). These results indicate that it may be difficult to determine the reef of origin for individual fish using otolith chemistry, while determining natal region seems a realistic goal.     

Resilience of predators to fishing pressure on coral patch reefs

Numbers and biomass of piscivorous fish and their predation on other fish may often be high in undisturbed coral reef communities. The effects of such predation have sometimes been studied by removal of piscivores (either experimentally or by fishermen). Such perturbations have usually involved removal of large, highly vulnerable, mobile piscivores that are often actively sought in fisheries. The effects of fishing on smaller, demersal, semi-resident piscivores have been little studied. We studied such effects on the fish communities of patch reefs at Midway atoll by experimentally removing major resident, demersal, piscivorous fishes. First, four control reefs and four experimental reefs were selected, their dimensions and habitats mapped, and their visible fish communities censused repeatedly over 1 year. Census of all control and experimental reefs was continued for the following 39 months, during which known piscivores were collected repeatedly by hand spearing. Records were kept of catch and effort to calculate CPUE as an index of predator density. Spearfishing on the experimental reefs removed 2504 piscivorous fish from 12 families and 43 taxa (mostly species). The species richness of the catch did not show an overall change over the duration of the experiment. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed some unexpected positive correlations for density in numbers and biomass of major fished piscivorous groups (especially lizardfish) over the experiment. Only two relatively minor fished piscivorous taxa declined in abundance over the experiment, while the overall abundance of piscivores increased. Visual censuses of fish on the experimental reefs also failed to show reduction of total piscivores over the full experimental period. No significant trend in the abundance of lizardfish censused over the full period was apparent on any of the control reefs. The high resilience of piscivores on these experimental reefs to relatively intense fishing pressure could result from their protracted recruitment seasons, high immigration rates, cryptic habits, or naturally high abundances. A major factor was the high immigration rates of lizardfish, replacing lizardfish and other less mobile piscivores removed from the reefs by spearing. On the fished reefs, the removed lizardfish population replaced itself >20 times during the experiment; other piscivorous taxa replaced themselves only 5 times.     

Spatial patterns of Yucatan reef fish communities: Testing models using a multi-scale survey design

Using a hierarchical multi-scale survey design, we examined the spatial patterns of reef fish communities and tested ecological models concerning the relative importance of reef geomorphology and anthropogenic pressure possibly driving community structure. Canonical redundancy analysis was used as a form of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) to asses differences in reef fish community composition at two spatial scales: broad (10⁵ m) and intermediate (10⁴ m). Surveys were conducted on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexican Caribbean fringing reef), including regions and reefs which differed in geomophologic structure and human use. Seven hundred and fourteen line transects were distributed among 13 reef localities belonging to different regions established a priori. Transects covered four types of reef habitat: lagoon, front, slope, and terrace. Tests of significance were based on permutation procedures. Significant differences among regions were found for the lagoon, slope, and terrace fish communities, consistent with the geomorphologic model, but it is only in the reef lagoon that they were consistent with the anthropogenic model, which may indicate an effect of coastal human activities. Significant differences among reefs within regions were observed, which could be associated with local environmental gradients. Canonical nested MANOVA was an appropriate method for testing ecological hypotheses about the functioning of complex biological systems. The use of a surveying strategy that explicitly incorporated the spatial structure represents an important contribution of this paper to coral reef fish ecology.