城市群新冠疫情时空分布格局与分异机制的地理探测

自从2019年12月湖北武汉爆发新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）以来,疫情在全国范围内迅速传播并蔓延。城市群既是我国新型城镇化主体特定的空间组织形态,也是相互连接的城市网,集合了相当数量不同性质、类型和等级规模的城市,城市群经济发展程度较高、人口密度大,交通发达,是疫情传染扩散-关联的重点区域,因而跨区域感染风险高,联防联控难度大。以疫情集中地区城市群为研究对象,通过核密度分析聚焦重点研究的城市群,从多层空间尺度对疫情在数量、人口迁移和空间分布上进行测度,利用空间自相关分析疫情分布特征,运用地理探测器方法客观地测度城市群疫情发展的差异性主导因素,从景观格局中挖掘相关主导因子,为生态、安全的空间规划和治理提供科学依据和思路。结果显示：①全国范围感染人数核密度高值区的空间分布与长江中游城市群和三大沿海城市群范围耦合,首位核心城市确诊感染数在城市群中占比均较高,城市群疫情扩散分布呈现典型的由核心城市向外辐射的特征,湖北地区迁出的人数对迁往地区的疫情形势构成一定程度的影响;②全国范围的COVID-19感染人数和感染增长率分布存在显著空间集聚特征,城市群范围感染人数的空间聚集性从长江中游城市群向其他城市群依次减弱;③地理探测器识别出人口密度、城乡建设、交通、卫生、科技、生态绿地为疫情的主导因素,并且交互后所产生的共同作用增加了对疫情的解释力;④生态与建设用地景观格局对疫情的解释能力较强,其中建设用地的聚集性和生态用地的蔓延性为主要因子。     

城市生态智慧管理系统的生态系统服务评估功能与应用

开展生态系统服务评估已经成为国土空间功能管治、城市治理、生态产品价值实现等工作中的先行基础动作。生态系统服务的类型和模型方法多,数据需求复杂,传统基于多学科软件开展生态系统服务评估的工作模式知识和技术门槛较高、效率低。当前专业的生态系统服务评估软件多为美国从业人员开发,对我国的数据构成和本地化参数适应性有限。介绍了我国自主开发的生态系统分析软件（城市生态智慧管理系统,IUEMS）的主要功能和应用情况,并将其的生态系统服务评估功能与InVEST、ARIES等国外主流软件在操作逻辑、评估模型、数据取得、空间精度、界面交互五个方面进行了对比。     

Studio comparativo sulla flora urbana in Italia

Abstract

Lo studio è basato sul confronto tra la flora di 5 città localizzate nelle principali regioni fitoclimatiche italiane: Milano, Ancona, Roma, Cagliari e Palermo. L'analisi di 684 specie rilevate in 50 aree campione ha evidenziato l'importanza delle apofite nella flora urbana in Italia e il ruolo delle terofite che provengono direttamente dalla vegetazione mediterranea. Il confronto ha inoltre mostrato la dominanza dei fattori biogeografici nella costituzione della copertura vegetale delle 5 città. Questi risultati contrastano con l'elevata percentuale di specie esotiche e con l'uniformità floristica osservate nelle aree urbane dell'Europa Centrale.     

Implementing a spatial model of Urban Carrying Capacity Load Number (UCCLN) to monitor the environmental loads of urban ecosystems. Case study: Tehran metropolis

The non-linear, unexpected and severe responses of ecosystems to the environmental changes crossing ecological thresholds or environmental limits, necessitate the regular monitoring of the human-induced pressures to the urban ecosystems. The present study aims to introduce a spatial decision support system for sustainable environmental planning and management of urban ecosystems by establishing an Urban Carrying Capacity Load Number model (UCCLN) based on carrying capacity concepts and sustainability principles .This model, by applying 30 temporal and spatial indicators continuously monitors the environmental loads on the urban ecosystems. Environmental load was represented by load number index. It was calculated in each zone of study area (urban districts). Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to establish UCCLN model and Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). The study area was Tehran metropolis, the capital of Iran. The results showed that none of the 115 urban districts of Tehran had optimal Total Load Number (TLN) ranging from (10 to100); 7 districts (6%) had low-to-medium range of TLN (TLN = 100–200); 11 districts (9.5%) had medium-to-high range (TLN = 200–300); 57 districts (49.5%) had high-to-very high range (TLN = 300–400); 40 districts (34.7%) had the TLN range of very high-to-critical (TLN = 400–500); and none of them had the TLN of 500. Furthermore, the results revealed that Tehran has already overshot its ecological thresholds. Not only most of the 30 indicators of environmental pressure in most of the districts (85%) had high DCC and LN scores, but also most of the 115 districts obtained high DCC, and as a result LN scores. The need for developing more efficient urban planning and management strategies to cope with the increasing environmental loads in the study area is inevitable.     

基于遥感技术的城市下垫面参数与热环境关系的研究——以北京市朝阳区为例

城市热岛（UHI）不仅直接关系到城市人居环境质量和居民健康状况,同时还对城市能源消耗、生态系统过程演变、生物物候以及城市经济可持续发展有着深远的影响。以北京市朝阳区2002—2017年夏季4期Landsat系列遥感影像为数据,采用大气反演法,对15年间朝阳区城市地表温度（LST）时空变化进行分析,发现15年间朝阳区城市热岛比例指数上升迅速,热岛效应逐年加剧。进一步研究表明,城市地表温度与归一化植被指数（NDVI）及归一化建筑指数（NDBI）密切相关：地表温度与NDBI正相关,NDBI指数每升高0.1,地表升温0.79~2.37°C;与NDVI指数负相关,NDVI指数每提高0.1,地表降温0.4~0.77°C。本研究可为城市规划建设与城市绿地营建提供科学具体的参考指导依据,并促进生态可持续发展与人居环境改善。     

The urban heat island in a small city in coastal Portugal

This project arose from the need to study the phenomenon of the urban heat island, since only by recognising this phenomenon can we moderate it to improve the human and urban environments. Not only big cities develop urban heat islands. This study detected the presence and recorded the characteristics of an urban heat island in the small coastal city of Aveiro, Portugal. The study was developed through the scheduled measurements of air temperature and the analysis of the geographical, meteorological and urban conditions. The form and intensity of Aveiro’s heat island are a response to the interaction of three principal factors: the urban morphology (the hottest zones in the city are those with the tallest and the highest density of buildings, without green spaces and with intense generation of heat from traffic, commerce and services); the meteorological conditions (the intensity of the island is at its maximum when the sky is totally clear and there is no wind, and at its minimum in those situations when there is atmospheric instability, such as wind, cloud and precipitation); and the proximity of the coastal lagoon (which borders the city to the west and northwest and moderates seasonal temperatures. The urban heat island influences the comfort and health of its inhabitants, thus urban planning is very important in the moderation and prevention of this phenomenon. Received: 7 July 1999 / Revised: 24 April 2000 / Accepted: 26 April 2000     

Phenology in central Europe – differences and trends of spring phenophases in urban and rural areas

In order to examine the impacts of both large-scale and small-scale climate changes (urban climate effect) on the development of plants, long-term observations of four spring phenophases from ten central European regions (Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Munich, Prague, Vienna, Zurich, Basle and Chur) were analysed. The objective of this study was to identify and compare the differences in the starting dates of the pre-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) and forsythia (Forsythia sp.), and of the full-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) and apple (Malus domestica), in urban and rural areas. The results indicate that, despite regional differences, in nearly all cases the species studied flower earlier in urbanised areas than in the corresponding rural areas. The forcing in urban areas was about 4 days for the pre-spring phenophases and about 2 days for the full-spring phenophases. The analysis of trends for the period from 1951 to 1995 showed tendencies towards an earlier flowering in all regions, but only 22% were significant at the 5% level. The trends for the period from 1980 to 1995 were much stronger for all regions and phases: the pre-spring phenophases on average became earlier by 13.9 days/decade in the urban areas and 15.3 days/decade in the rural areas, while the full-spring phenophases were 6.7 days earlier/decade in the urban areas and 9.1 days/decade earlier in the rural areas. Thus rural areas showed a higher trend towards an earlier flowering than did urban areas for the period from 1980 to 1995. However, these trends, especially for the pre-spring phenophases, turned out to be extremely variable. Received: 21 October 1999 / Revised: 5 April 2000 / Accepted: 25 April 2000     

Indicator species for avian biodiversity hotspots: Combination of specialists and generalists is necessary in less natural environments

In this work, I tested the premise that the distribution of a group of few common bird species can be used to predict bird species hotspots in Central Italy. The data on bird observations were collected on 530 sampled sites (150 in cultivated, 150 in forest, 150 in grassland and 80 in urban and peri-urban environments). In each environment, sampled sites with values of bird species richness in the upper than third quartile were classified as high species richness spots (HSRS), while sites with lower bird species richness were classified as non-HSRS (binary classification system).Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were applied using HSRS or non-HSRS as binomial response variable and bird species occurrence was used as the predictor variable. All selected models showed “fair” or “good” capacities to predict the avian hotspots, using only few common birds (4–6) species. However, bird species selected as predictors were different on each environment. In more natural environments (grassland, forest), specialist species were selected, while in most disturbed environments (cultivated and urban) both generalist and specialist species were selected. The results are in agreement with other studies which show how homogenization of bird communities is strongly correlated to landscape disturbance. The findings supports the hypothesis that indicators have to incorporate both specialists and generalist’s species simultaneously. Furthermore, the groups of birds selected as surrogates are easy to detect and this makes it possible to involve citizen-science programmes in obtain data. This approach can be a cheap and efficient and can help to significantly speed up the process of assessing ecosystems that might be under threat.     

四川省遂宁地区吸烟人群的城乡对比

目的:了解四川省遂宁地区城乡自然人群中吸烟者的分布特征,比较城市及农村的吸烟人群在吸烟状况等方面的差异,为今后在该地区的不同人群中开展戒烟干预活动提供基础数据。方法:采用访谈和问卷调查相结合的形式,对四川省遂宁市下辖的五区城乡常住人口进行随机抽样。被调查者年龄范围为18岁至65岁。调查项目包括:一般情况、吸烟率、吸烟量、戒烟意愿和戒烟原因等。结果:从总体上看,男性吸烟率高于女性,文化程度越高在吸烟者中所占比例越小。城乡之间有统计学显著意义的差异如下:1.农村人群的吸烟率高于城市人群(男性:农村64.7%,城市45.7%;女性:农村4.6%,城市3.1%);2.农村吸烟群体的文化程度明显低于城市;3.农村吸烟者的日平均吸烟量高于城市吸烟者;4.农村吸烟者的烟龄比城市吸烟者烟龄长;5.城乡之间的戒烟原因各自不同。结论:城乡之间的吸烟者有着各自不同的特征和吸烟情况,在开展戒烟或控烟等宣称防治工作时应针对不同群体有不同的工作策略与方法。