Guidelines for model adaptation: A study of the transferability of a general seagrass ecosystem Dynamic Bayesian Networks model

In general, it is not feasible to collect enough empirical data to capture the entire range of processes that define a complex system, either intrinsically or when viewing the system from a different geographical or temporal perspective. In this context, an alternative approach is to consider model transferability, which is the act of translating a model built for one environment to another less well‐known situation. Model transferability and adaptability may be extremely beneficial—approaches that aid in the reuse and adaption of models, particularly for sites with limited data, would benefit from widespread model uptake. Besides the reduced effort required to develop a model, data collection can be simplified when transferring a model to a different application context. The research presented in this paper focused on a case study to identify and implement guidelines for model adaptation. Our study adapted a general Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) of a seagrass ecosystem to a new location where nodes were similar, but the conditional probability tables varied. We focused on two species of seagrass (Zostera noltei and Zostera marina) located in Arcachon Bay, France. Expert knowledge was used to complement peer‐reviewed literature to identify which components needed adjustment including parameterization and quantification of the model and desired outcomes. We adopted both linguistic labels and scenario‐based elicitation to elicit from experts the conditional probabilities used to quantify the DBN. Following the proposed guidelines, the model structure of the general DBN was retained, but the conditional probability tables were adapted for nodes that characterized the growth dynamics in Zostera spp. population located in Arcachon Bay, as well as the seasonal variation on their reproduction. Particular attention was paid to the light variable as it is a crucial driver of growth and physiology for seagrasses. Our guidelines provide a way to adapt a general DBN to specific ecosystems to maximize model reuse and minimize re‐development effort. Especially important from a transferability perspective are guidelines for ecosystems with limited data, and how simulation and prior predictive approaches can be used in these contexts.     

SWAT模型对景观格局变化的敏感性分析——以丹江口库区老灌河流域为例

景观的空间配置与类型组成能够对流域的产流、产沙及非点源污染产生影响。在以往SWAT模型研究中,往往默认水文模型考虑了该影响。为分析SWAT模型对不同景观格局变化的敏感性,根据老灌河流域2000年土地利用在各子流域的组成,模拟研究区更为破碎、复杂的景观空间配置,通过设置多套试验参数,利用SWAT模型生成基于不同景观格局的模拟结果。结果表明,SWAT模型不能反映除坡度和面积变化之外的景观水平下各斑块之间因景观空间格局改变对流域产流、产沙以及非点源污染的影响;模型通过其他参数的调整,弥补了模型分析数据的不足,使实测数据与模型部分结果高度吻合。这表明,一个能够反映流域部分水文特征的SWAT模型,未必是对研究区真实情形的模拟,而是各个参数间平衡的结果。因此,在利用SWAT模型分析模拟景观变化时,不应默认模型能够模拟景观空间格局改变对流域水文过程的影响,同时研究者可以通过划分坡度带,提高模型对不同坡度土地利用的敏感性。     

Assessment of the stream invertebrate β‐diversity along an elevation gradient using a bidimensional null model analysis

β‐Diversity, commonly defined as the compositional variation among localities that links local diversity (α‐diversity) and regional diversity (γ‐diversity), can arise from two different ecological phenomena, namely the spatial species turnover (i.e., species replacement) and the nestedness of assemblages (i.e., species loss). However, any assessment that does not account for stochasticity in community assembly could be biased and misinform conservation management. In this study, we aimed to provide a better understanding of the overall ecological phenomena underlying stream β‐diversity along elevation gradients and to contribute to the rich debate on null model approaches to identify nonrandom patterns in the distribution of taxa. Based on presence‐absence data of 78 stream invertebrate families from 309 sites located in the Swiss Alpine region, we analyzed the effect size of nonrandom spatial distribution of stream invertebrates on the β‐diversity and its two components (i.e., turnover and nestedness). We used a modeling framework that allows exploring the complete range of existing algorithms used in null model analysis and assessing how distribution patterns vary according to an array of possible ecological assumptions. Overall, the turnover of stream invertebrates and the nestedness of assemblages were significantly lower and higher, respectively, than the ones expected by chance. This pattern increased with elevation, and the consistent trend observed along the altitudinal gradient, even in the most conservative analysis, strengthened our findings. Our study suggests that deterministic distribution of stream invertebrates in the Swiss Alpine region is significantly driven by differential dispersal capacity and environmental stress gradients. As long as the ecological assumptions for constructing the null models and their implications are acknowledged, we believe that they still represent useful tools to measure the effect size of nonrandom spatial distribution of taxa on β‐diversity.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

基因组规模代谢网络模型构建及其应用

微生物制造产业的发展迫切需要进一步提高认识、设计和改造微生物细胞代谢的能力,以推动工业生物技术快速发展。随着微生物全基因组序列等高通量数据的不断积聚和生物信息学策略的持续涌现,使全局性、系统化地解析、设计、调控微生物生理代谢功能成为可能。而基于基因组序列注释和详细生化信息整合的基因组规模代谢网络模型(GSMM)构建为全局理解和理性调控微生物生理代谢功能提供了最佳平台。以下在详述GSMM的应用基础上,描述了如何构建一个高精确度的GSMM,并展望了未来的发展方向。     

无花果曲霉发酵生产β-葡萄糖苷酶的动力学分析

在7L生物反应器的分批发酵中,通过对无花果曲霉UV-29液态发酵茵丝体的生长、基质消耗（以总糖计）及β-葡萄糖苷酶产生的特性研究,发现总糖是无花果曲霉生长的限制性基质;β-葡萄糖苷酶的增长趋势明显滞后于细胞生长的增长趋势,其发酵过程属于部分相关模型,即Ga—den提出的Ⅱ型发酵;基于logistic方程,建立了发酵动力学模型,同时对实验数据与模型进行了验证比较,模型计算值与实验数据拟合良好。在7L生物反应器的最大茵体生物量（干重）达到1．17g／100mL,β-葡萄糖苷酶最高酶活达到22．25IU／mL。     

综述与专论: 针对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2变异株Omicron的疫苗研究进展

2021年底,严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 Omicron变异株迅速取代Delta突变株在世界范围内广泛流行,其S蛋白具有36个位点突变,导致致病力和传播力发生明显变化,并且具备了免疫逃逸的能力。疫苗接种是目前疫情防控最普适的手段,研究发现,现有疫苗针对Omicron突变株的保护效果明显下降。新的免疫策略或特异性疫苗/多价疫苗针对Omicron有效性的评估均需要动物模型的支撑。在实验室条件下,利用动物模型进行活病毒攻击实验,是在体内验证保护性中和抗体、疫苗有效性的关键技术手段,本文将从动物模型方向综述国内外针对Omicron变异株的疫苗研究进展。