Causes of early human population growth

The archaeological record indicates large increases in human population coincident with the emergence of food production about 10,000 years ago. The cause of the growth is unclear. Extreme views attribute the change to increases in the birth rate or to decreases in the death rate. Many argue that sedentism led to improved ovarian function and higher fertility through higher caloric intakes or reduced activity levels. Similarly, shortened lactation periods may have reduced birth spacing and increased fertility. Others attribute the rise in population to decreases in mortality, arguing that the evidence from skeletal populations indicates improvements in health and the expectation of life at birth, though others use the same evidence to argue that mortality increased. An analysis presented here draws on findings that indicate substantial increases in the survival of young children as populations switch from nomadic to sedentary lives. Projections indicate that this improvement in child survival is so critical that it may be followed by substantially larger decreases in survival at later ages, yet result in higher population growth rates and reduced expectation of life at birth. Increases in the birth rate are not necessary for population growth, even when overall mortality increases. Large increases in overall mortality can be associated with large increases in population. Because positive population growth can occur while the expectation of life at birth declines, this analysis shows that this summary statistic is not an appropriate indicator of population fitness. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Body size and food web structure: testing the equiprobability assumption of the cascade model

The cascade model successfuly predicts many patterns in reported food webs. A key assumption of this model is the existence of a predetermined trophic hierarchy; prey are always lower in the hierarchy than their predators. At least three studies have suggested that, in animal food webs, this hierarchy can be explained to a large extent by body size relationships. A second assumption of the standard cascade model is that trophic links not prohibited by the hierarchy occur with equal probability. Using nonparametric contingency table analyses, we tested this ”equiprobability hypothesis” in 16 published animal food webs for which the adult body masses of the species had been estimated. We found that when the hierarchy was based on body size, the equiprobability hypothesis was rejected in favor of an alternative, ”predator-dominance” hypothesis wherein the probability of a trophic link varies with the identity of the predator. Another alternative to equiprobabilty is that the probability of a trophic link depends upon the ratio of the body sizes of the two species. Using nonparametric regression and liklihood ratio tests, we show that a size-ratio based model represents a significant improvement over the cascade model. These results suggest that models with heterogeneous predation probabilities will fit food web data better than the homogeneous cascade model. They also suggest a new way to bridge the gap between static and dynamic food web models. Received: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 26 October 1999     

A Comparison of Tests for Marginal Homogeneity in Square Contingency Tables

Several asymptotic tests were proposed for testing the null hypothesis of marginal homogeneity in square contingency tables with r categories. A simulation study was performed for comparing the power of four finite conservative conditional test procedures and of two asymptotic tests for twelve different contingency schemes for small sample sizes. While an asymptotic test proposed by STUART (1955) showed a rather satisfactory behaviour for moderate sample sizes, an asymptotic test proposed by BHAPKAR (1966) was quite anticonservative. With no a priori information the performance of (r - 1) simultaneous conditional binomial tests with a Bonferroni adjustment proved to be a quite efficient procedure. With assumptions about where to expect the deviations from the null hypothesis, other procedures favouring the larger or smaller conditional sample sizes, respectively, can have a great efficiency. The procedures are illustrated by means of a numerical example from clinical psychology.     

Analysis of Proportions in One- or Two-Way Tables with Spoiled Data

This paper discusses the analysis of data on proportions in contingency tables. The X² ‘index of dispersion test’ (e.g. Fisher, 1954) is developed in these situations and compared with the use of the ‘logit’ transformation. An example using Osborn's (1979) data is given, illustrating the estimation of one or more missing observations.     

On the Asymptotic Relative Efficiency of the Mantel-Haenszel Test

The Mantel-Haenszel test is optimal when the odds ratio is constant. This paper investigates the effects of departures from the assumption of a constant odds ratio on the behavior of the Mantel-Haenzel test. A simple approximation is proposed for the non-null distribution of the test statistic. Based on this approximation, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the Mantel-Haenszel test, compared to the overall χ² test for no partial association, is calculated. For the case of 2 strata, it is shown that the Mantel-Haenszel test is efficient as long as the logarithms of the odds ratios are of the same sign and their absolute values exceed 1.     

Effects of Wolbachia on fitness of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Wolbachia pipientis is a widespread endosymbiont of insects and other arthropods exerting a wide range of biological effects on their hosts. A growing number of recent studies document the influence of Wolbachia on reproduction and lifespan of insect host species. However, little is known regarding effects of Wolbachia on the demographic traits of different host populations. Moreover, whether different Wolbachia strains exert different effects on fitness components of their hosts remains largely unknown. We studied the effects of (a) the Wolbachia strain wCer2 on fitness components of two laboratory lines of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) and (b) two different Wolbachia strains (wCer2 and wCer4) on one of the Mediterranean fruit fly lines. Wolbachia infection (wCer2) shortens the egg‐to‐adult developmental duration of both C. capitata lines, although it prolongs embryonic development. In one of the two lines, egg‐to‐adult mortality increased. Wolbachia infection shortens adult lifespan (to a different extent in males and females) and reduces female fecundity. The different Wolbachia strains differentially affect both immature mortality and developmental duration, and adult longevity and female fecundity. Our findings demonstrate both differential response of two C. capitata lines to Wolbachia infection and differential effects of two Wolbachia strains on the same Mediterranean fruit fly line. Practical and theoretical implications of our findings are discussed.     

The effect of banker plant species on the fitness of Aphidius colemani Viereck and its aphid host (Rhopalosiphum padi L.)

Banker plants, a type of open-rearing unit, are increasingly used in greenhouse crops to sustain natural enemy populations at times of low pest abundance. The most common banker plant system is a non-crop, cereal plant which supports Rhopalosiphum padi L. as an alternative host for Aphidius colemani Viereck. Although bottom-up effects of plants are known to affect natural enemies, this aspect has generally been ignored in previous investigations of banker plant efficacy. Here, we tested four cereal plant species with three varieties each to investigate host plant effects on R. padi and A. colemani. Though limited differences were observed in laboratory experiments spanning one aphid or parasitoid generation, longer greenhouse experiments spanning several generations revealed significant plant effects on both insects. R. padi performed poorly on oats (Avena sativa L.), resulting in wasps with the longest female development time, lowest emergence rates, and the lowest number of wasps produced per unit. Rye (Secale cereal L.) – intermediate in terms of aphid performance – produced a significantly male-biased wasp population with the smallest males. Conversely, R. padi placed onto either wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) or barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) performed consistently well in terms of aphid and parasitoid fitness and abundance, though neither species was obviously superior over the other. Overall, cultivars within each plant species did not significantly affect outcomes. As each plant species tested had different positive effects on aphid and parasitoid phenotypes, the potential benefits of mixing of cereal species is an area for future investigation.     

On boundary solutions and identifiability in categorical regression with non‐ignorable non‐response

This paper considers the regression analysis of categorical variables when the response variable is incompletely observed and the non‐response mechanism is assumed to be non‐ignorable. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters can lead to substantively implausible boundary solutions where the estimated proportion of non‐respondents taking certain values of the response variable is zero. A geometric explanation of why boundary solutions occur was given in a previous paper for a simple model. By extending this explanation, it is possible to define the sub‐class of non‐ignorable models whose parameters are identified, and to show all models not in this sub‐class are non‐identified. The conditions under which a model is a member of this class are easily established.     

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<正>Aims and scope SCIENCE CHINA Life Sciences(Sci China Life Sci)is a journal published monthly in English by the Chinese Academy of Sciences,and co-sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.It is published in both printed and electronic forms by Science China Press and Springer.