火后泥石流研究进展

林火次生灾害的发生对环境质量和人类的健康与安全具有重要影响.火后泥石流是最危险的林火次生灾害之一,了解其发生条件、掌握其发生状况,是火后灾害风险评估的重要基础.本文从植被、降雨阈值、物源3方面阐述了火对泥石流的影响,分析了火后泥石流起动的地形地质、降雨、坡面条件以及浅层滑坡与地表径流引发火后泥石流的起动机制,并综述了火后泥石流预测预报与治理措施的研究进展.最后提出了在未来的研究中应该着重关注4个方面:量化火行为及环境因子与火后泥石流的关系;火后泥石流起动、运动过程的定量分析;火后泥石流机理模型研究;火后泥石流快速高效治理措施研究.     

Subsistence ecology and play among the okavango delta peoples of botswana

Children’s play is widely believed by educators and social scientists to have a training function that contributes to psychosocial development as well as the acquisition of skills related to adult competency in task performance. In this paper we examine these assumptions from the perspective of life-history theory using behavioral observation and household economic data collected among children in a community in the Okavango Delta of Botswana where people engage in mixed subsistence regimes of dry farming, foraging, and herding. We hypothesize that if play contributes to adult competency then time allocation to play will decrease as children approach adult levels of competence. This hypothesis generates the following predictions: (1) time allocated to play activities that develop specific productive skills should decline in relation to the proportion of adult competency achieved; (2) children will spend more time in forms of play that are related to skill development in tasks specific to the subsistence ecology in which that child participates or expects to participate; and (3) children will spend more time in forms of play that are related to skill development in tasks clearly related to the gender-specific productive role in the subsistence ecology in which that child participates or expects to participate. We contrast these expectations with the alternative hypothesis that if play is not preparatory for adult competence then time allocated to each play activity should diminish at the same rate. This latter hypothesis generates the following two predictions: (1) time allocation to play should be unaffected by subsistence regime and (2) patterns of time allocation to play should track patterns of growth and energy balance. Results from multiple regression analysis support earlier research in this community showing that trade-offs between immediate productivity and future returns were a primary determinant of children’s activity patterns. Children whose labor was in greater demand spent significantly less time playing. In addition, controlling for age and gender, children spent significantly more time in play activities related to tasks specific to their household subsistence economy. These results are consistent with the assertion that play is an important factor in the development of adult competency and highlight the important contributions of an evolutionary ecological perspective in understanding children’s developmental trajectories. John Bock is an associate professor of anthropology at Cal State Fullerton and Associate Editor of Human Nature. He received a Ph.D. in Anthropology (Human Evolutionary Ecology) from the University of New Mexico in 1995, and from 1995 to 1998 was an Andrew W. Mellon Foundation postdoctoral fellow in demography and epidemiology at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at Australian National University. His recent research has focused on the application of life-history theory to understanding the evolution of the primate and human juvenile period. Bock has been conducting research among the Okavango Delta peoples of Botswana since 1992, and his current research there is an examination of child development and family demography in relation to socioecology and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Other research is focused on health disparities among minorities and indigenous peoples in Botswana and the United States related to differential access to health care. Sara E. Johnson is an assistant professor of anthropology at California State University, Fullerton. She received her Ph.D. in Anthropology (Human Evolutionary Ecology) from the University of New Mexico in 2001. She uses behavioral ecology and life-history theory to address her research interests in the evolution of primate and human growth; ecological variation and phenotypic plasticity in growth and development; ecological variation in life course trajectories, including fertility, health, morbidity, and mortality differentials; food acquisition and production related to nutrition; societal transformation and roles of the elderly among indigenous peoples; and women’s reproductive and productive roles in both traditional and nontraditional societies. Over the past 10 years she has conducted research on these issues in several different populations, including chacma baboons in the Okavango Delta of Botswana, two multiethnic communities of forager/agropastoralists in the Okavango Delta of Botswana, and among New Mexican men.     

Wildfires in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania: Burned areas,underlying causes and management challenges

The Eastern Arc Mountains are one of the most important ecosystems that conserve biodiversity in the world. These ecosystems are threatened by the increasing occurrence of wildfires. Nevertheless, there is inadequate information useful for the development of effective strategies to prevent or respond to future fires. This paper analyses the current extent of dry season fires, underlying causes and the effectiveness of the fire management strategy being implemented in and around the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNFR) between 2016 and 2021. Differenced Normalised Burn Ratio derived from Landsat satellite images was applied to determine the extent of burned areas, and focus group discussions were held to determine the underlying causes of fires and the extent of implementation of fire management strategies. About 2% (472 ha) of reserved UNFR and 5% (2,854 ha) of unreserved forests were burned in 2017. Some of the fires impacted on 60% (370 ha) of the grassy Lukwangule plateau, which is home to a fire‐sensitive endemic species. The underlying causes of fires varied spatially across the mountains but generally, fire escaping from farm preparation and hunting activities were found to be the most prevalent. On average, survey participants perceived that fire management strategy objectives were achieved by only 29% mainly constrained by a shortage of financial and human resources. Our findings suggest that ignitions and fire spread in UNFR could be prevented or controlled through sustainable funding of fire management activities and the effective engagement of local communities in the management of the reserve.     

Incentivising fire management in Pindan (Acacia shrubland): A proposed fuel type for Australia's Savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement methodology

The Australian Government has sanctioned development of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) abatement methodologies to meet international emissions reduction obligations. Savanna burning emissions abatement methodologies have been available since 2012, and there are currently 72 registered projects covering approximately 32 million ha. Abatement to date has exceeded 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2‐e) principally through the application of low intensity early dry season fire management to reduce the amount of biomass combusted in higher intensity late dry season (LDS) fires. Savanna burning projects can only be conducted on areas with eligible fire‐prone vegetation fuel types where implementing the improved fire management regime is considered ecologically appropriate. This study assesses the suitability of including tall Acacia shrublands (‘Pindan’) as a new eligible fuel type. These shrublands make up 12% (~2 million ha) of the Kimberley region, Western Australia, where, on average, 32% is fire affected annually, mostly in the LDS. A standard assessment protocol was applied to describe vegetation fuel type structural and pyrolysis characteristics. We show that Pindan (i) can be identified and mapped as a unique tall Acacia shrubland vegetation fuel type, (ii) characterised by a significantly greater shrubby fuel load biomass, and (iii) the conservation status of which would benefit from imposition of strategic prescribed burning programme. Savanna burning projects in the Pindan fuel type could potentially abate up to 24.43 t.CO₂‐e/km² per year, generating significant income and employment opportunities for predominantly Indigenous land managers in the region.     

Characteristics of inorganic nitrogen assimilation of plants in fire-prone Mediterranean-type vegetation

A range of approaches was used to investigate how species within a fire-prone Banksia woodland in South West Australia exploited inorganic soil nitrogen sources and how this changes through the development of the fire chronosequence. Nitrate and ammonium were present in soil solution throughout the chronosequence but nitrate predominated in recently burnt sites. Mean shoot nitrate reductase activities were high for all species in recently burnt sites and showed little increase when nitrate was supplied via the transpiration stream. Nitrate reductase of shoots of most species was low at sites not burnt for several years, but following transpirational induction with nitrate, developed activities similar to those at recently burnt sites. The principal amino compounds transported in the xylem were species specific, including asparagine, glutamine and citrulline-dominated species, and changed little in relative composition across the chronosequence. Species most active in leaf nitrate reduction transported the largest amounts of nitrate in their xylem sap and proportional amounts of nitrate in xylem tended to be greatest in recently burnt sites. Most of the species examined appeared to be shoot rather than root nitrate assimilators, but marked differences were recorded in potential of leafy shoots of different species to reduce nitrate. As a general rule, shallow-rooted herbaceous, non-mycorrhizal or VAM-positive species had the highest capacity to reduce nitrate, whereas woody species with ericoid mycorrhizae or combined vesicular arbuscular/ectomycorrhizal associations exhibited little capacity to reduce nitrate in roots or shoots. It seems likely that this latter group utilize ammonium or even organic forms of nitrogen rather than nitrate. Some putative nitrogen-fixing species were active in reducing and transporting nitrate, others were virtually inactive in these respects.     

Relationships between ericaceous vegetation and soil nutrient status in a post-fire Kalmia angustifolia-black spruce chronosequence

Post-fire nutrient flushes are an important precursor to secondary succession in fire-driven boreal forest. We studied the magnitude of changes in post-fire soil nutrient status across a chronosequence of ericaceous shrub-dominated boreal forest stands in eastern Newfoundland, Canada. The chronosequence comprised nine stands burned between 1 and 38 years prior to the study. These sites have resisted tree reestablishment following forest fire-induced mortality of black spruce and a concomitant increase in dominance of the ericaceous dwarf shrub Kalmia angustifolia L. Our objectives were: (1) to identify the factors driving soil nutrient status in these post-fire stands dominated by ericaceous plants, and (2) to test hypotheses that specific relationships exist among environmental factors, dominant vegetation and indicators of soil nutrient status. Macronutrients such as NH₄⁺, total organic N and mineral soil P concentrations showed non-linear declines with time since fire. These parameters were also negatively associated with cover of ericaceous plants. Potential phytotoxins such as total phenolics and aluminium concentrations increased with increasing cover of K. angustifolia. Variability in net ammonification, total P and total phenolic acids in organic soils were strongly related to ericaceous dominance even when the effect of time since fire was partialled out using regression analysis. These findings suggest a strong capacity for ericaceous vegetation to have top-down effects on soil chemical property particularly in the organic horizon with the increase in its post-fire dominance.     

Spatially-correlated extinction in a metapopulation model of Leadbeater's Possum

The importance of considering spatially-correlated extinction in metapopulation viability analyses was investigated using a model of the population dynamics of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy (Leadbeater's Possum). Fire caused local extinction of G. leadbeateri and induced changes in the suitability of the habitat over a period of decades and centuries. Spatially-correlated fires, in which the correlation between the incidence of fire declines with distance, and uniformly-correlated fires were simulated. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction increased: (i) as the variance in the number of fires each year increased, (ii) as the mean fire interval decreased, and (iii) as the mean dispersal distance decreased. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fires between patches had little effect on the results, provided the variance in the number of fires per year remained the same and fires modified habitat quality. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction was greater for spatially-correlated fires than for uniformly-correlated fires when fires only caused local extinction but did not change habitat suitability. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fire within patches, which allowed partial burning of patches, reduced the predicted risk of extinction. This effect was only slight when patches were smaller than about 50 ha. The results of our simulations demonstrate the importance of considering correlations in disturbance regimes in metapopulation models, especially if these models are used to assist the design of nature reserves.     

关于一类时滞人口模型的全局吸引性

给出了保证时滞人口模型N'(t)=r(t)N(t) t≤0的每一正解N(t)趋于正平衡点 N*=1(t→∞)的一族充分条件．改进了Joseph和Yu的相关结果．