Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996

Increases in air temperature due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be detected easily in the phenological data of Europe within the last four decades because spring phenological events are particularly sensitive to temperature. Our new analysis of observational data from the International Phenological Gardens in Europe for the 1959–1996 period revealed that spring events, such as leaf unfolding, have advanced on average by 6.3 days (–0.21 day/year), whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, have been delayed on average by 4.5 days (+0.15 day/year). Thus, the average annual growing season has lengthened on average by 10.8 days since the early 1960s. For autumn events, differences between mean trends of species could not be detected, but for spring events there were differences between species, with the higher trends for leaf unfolding and flowering of shrubs indicating that changes in events occurring in the early spring are more distinct. These observed trends in plant phenological events in the International Phenological Gardens and results of other phenological studies in Europe, summarised in this study, are consistent with AVHRR satellite measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index from 1981 to 1991 and with an analysis of long-term measurements of the annual cycle of CO₂ concentration in Hawaii and Alaska, also indicating a global lengthening of the growing season. Received: 21 October 1999 / Accepted: 2 March 2000     

Generalized additive distributed lag models: quantifying mortality displacement

There are a number of applied settings where a response is measured repeatedly over time, and the impact of a stimulus at one time is distributed over several subsequent response measures. In the motivating application the stimulus is an air pollutant such as airborne particulate matter and the response is mortality. However, several other variables (e.g. daily temperature) impact the response in a possibly non-linear fashion. To quantify the effect of the stimulus in the presence of covariate data we combine two established regression techniques: generalized additive models and distributed lag models. Generalized additive models extend multiple linear regression by allowing for continuous covariates to be modeled as smooth, but otherwise unspecified, functions. Distributed lag models aim to relate the outcome variable to lagged values of a time-dependent predictor in a parsimonious fashion. The resultant, which we call generalized additive distributed lag models, are seen to effectively quantify the so-called 'mortality displacement effect' in environmental epidemiology, as illustrated through air pollution/mortality data from Milan, Italy.     

Analysis of exposure-time-response relationships using a spline weight function

To examine the time-dependent effects of exposure histories on disease, we estimate a weight function within a generalized linear model. The shape of the weight function, which is modeled as a cubic B-spline, gives information about the impact of exposure increments at different times on disease risk. The method is evaluated in a simulation study and is applied to data on smoking histories and lung cancer from a recent case-control study in Germany.     

CYTONUCLEAR THEORY FOR HAPLODIPLOID SPECIES AND X-LINKED GENES. II. STEPPING-STONE MODELS OF GENE FLOW AND APPLICATION TO A FIRE ANT HYBRID ZONE

We develop cytonuclear, hybrid zone models for haplodiploid species or X-linked genes in diploid species using a stepping-stone framework of migration, in which migration rates vary with both direction and sex. The equilibrium clines for the allele frequencies, cytonuclear disequilibria, and frequencies of pure parental types are examined for species with diagnostic markers, under four important migration schemes: uniform migration of both sexes in both directions, greater migration of both sexes from one direction, greater migration of females, and greater migration of males. Of the three cytonuclear variables examined, the allele frequency clines are the most informative in differentiating among the various migration patterns. The cytonuclear disequilibria and the frequency of the pure parental types tend to be useful only in revealing directional asymmetries in migration. The extent of hybrid zone subdivision has quantitative but not qualitative effects on the distribution of cytonuclear variables, in that the allele frequency clines become more gradual, the cytonuclear disequilibria decrease in magnitude, and the frequencies of pure parentals decline with increasing subpopulation number. Also, the only major difference between the X-linked and haplodiploid frameworks is that a higher frequency of pure parentals is found when considering haplodiploids, in which male production does not require mating. The final important theoretical result is that censusing after migration yields greater disequilibria and parental frequencies than censusing after mating. We analyzed cytonuclear data from two transects from a naturally occurring hybrid zone between two haplodiploid fire ant species, Solenopsis invicta and S. richteri, using our stepping-stone framework. The frequency of S. invicta mtDNA exceeds the frequency of the S. invicta nuclear markers through much of this hybrid zone, indicating that sex differences in migration or selection may be occurring. Maximum-likelihood estimates for the migration rates are very high, due to an unexpectedly large number of pure parental types in the hybrid zone, and differ substantially between the two transects. Overall, our model does not provide a good fit, in part because the S. invicta–S. richteri hybrid zone has not yet reached equilibrium.     

Short-term and long-term effects of mowing on the vegetation of two calcareous fens

Abstract. Short-term field experiments are often used to predict and evaluate long-term management effects. Based on a mowing experiment in two calcareous fens near Lake Neuchâtel, Switzerland, we investigated whether short-term treatment effects (i.e. during the first four years) were confirmed by long-term results (13 - 14 yr). Plots were mown in summer or in winter or left unmown. The main long-term trends in overall species composition (based on percentage cover estimates) were already observable in the first four years: mown and unmown plots diverged, whereas summer-cut and winter-cut plots remained similar. At the individual species level, however, short-term and long-term treatment effects differed considerably: many species whose abundance seemed affected by treatments during the first four years showed no response in the long term, and vice versa. These discrepancies were similar when based on cover estimates or on counts of shoots. Species responses did actually depend on the time scale considered. Short-term and long-term treatment effects on species richness were similar (i.e. a decrease in unmown plots), although only long-term effects were significant. Treatment effects on the above-ground biomass varied considerably, and short-term trends (lower biomass in unmown plots) differed from long-term trends (higher biomass in unmown plots). Our sites showed little overall change in species composition during the period investigated, and treatment effects were low compared with other similar experiments. If study sites are less stable or treatment effects more drastic, a short-term evaluation is expected to be even less reliable. Knowledge on species dynamics at a site may help to choose the adequate spatial and temporal scale of investigation, and thus increase the efficiency of management experiments.     

Topographic controls on the distribution of tree islands in the high Andes of south‐western Ecuador

Aim To evaluate the hypothesis that geomorphometric parameters of upper montane Andean environments have an important influence on the regional fire ecology and consequently play a role in the spatial distribution of ‘remnant’ tree islands dominated by Polylepis. Location A glacial landscape located between 3600 and 4400 m elevation in Cajas National Park, south‐western Ecuador. Methods The eigenvalue ratio method was used to evaluate the regional geomorphometric parameters of a 30‐m digital elevation model for Cajas National Park. The landscape character was evaluated by quantifying the topographic roughness, organization, and gradient. This information was used to determine the spatial correlations between terrain characteristics and the distribution of tree islands in the region. Results We demonstrate a strong spatial correlation between areas of high topographic roughness and gradient, and the locations of the major tree islands. We find that there is a distinctive relationship between the topographic roughness and organization in the vicinity of the tree islands (e.g. increased upslope roughness and decreased topographic grain strength) that substantiates the notion that the tree islands are located in relatively inaccessible topography. Main conclusions In the northern and central Andes, the location of Polylepis‐dominated ‘forest islands’ has been shown to be a function of climate, terrain characteristics, and anthropogenic disturbances. Although the relative importance of various ecological factors has been debated, it remains clear that fires have exerted a strong influence on these ecosystems. Other authors have noted that tree islands are more likely to occur at the base of cliffs, above moist areas, and in other areas where fires do not burn frequently. Our results corroborate these observations, and demonstrate that the occurrence of Polylepis patches is strongly correlated with specific combinations of terrain features. Although we do not discount the importance of other factors in determining the spatial position and areal extent of these forests, we demonstrate strong support for fire‐related hypotheses.     

Influence of queen weight and colony origin on worker response in Solenopsis geminata

Abstract. The influence of weight and colony origin of the queen of Solenopsis geminata (F.) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) on worker attraction is studied under laboratory conditions. In the first experiment, worker response to individual queens of different weight from the same colony is evaluated. Heavier queens are more attractive than smaller queens to their own workers. In subsequent experiments, the colony origin effect is investigated and worker response to a pair of queens of the same weight from the same or different colonies is compared. When queens are from the same colony, workers do not show a significant preference between queens. However, when queens are from a different colony, workers are significantly more attracted to their own queen than to the foreign queen. Finally, the response of workers to queens of different weight from the same or different colonies is investigated. In both cases, workers are significantly more attracted to a heavier queen than a lighter queen, even if the lighter queen is their own queen. A putative pheromonal component (E)‐6‐(1‐pentenyl)‐2H‐2‐pyranone, is not positively correlated with queen weight.     

Rangeland degradation is poised to cause Africa's first recorded avian extinction

Rangeland degradation by livestock threatens several restricted-range species, but is largely overlooked by conservation biologists. The Sidamo lark Heteromirafra sidamoensis , confined to the Liben Plain grassland in southern Ethiopia, is critically endangered by bush encroachment, permanent settlement and agricultural conversion. Its global range was previously estimated at 760 km², but in 2007–2008 available habitat covered<35 km². Density estimates from multi-model inference analysis of distance transect data provided a global population estimate of 90–256 adults (possibly with a serious sex-ratio bias towards males). Logistic regression models of habitat selection showed that males preferentially occurred in areas of grassland with greater cover of medium-length grass (5–15 cm), less cover of bare ground and fewer bushes. Habitat transects extending outward from its core range revealed massive and rapid bush encroachment, corroborating information from semi-structured interviews. The survival of both local Borana pastoralism and this species – mainland Africa's likeliest first avian extinction – depends on restoring seasonal patterns of grazing, resisting agricultural conversion of grasslands, reversing fire suppression policies and clearing bush.