Modeling seasonality in space‐time infectious disease surveillance data

Infectious disease data from surveillance systems are typically available as multivariate times series of disease counts in specific administrative geographical regions. Such databases are useful resources to infer temporal and spatiotemporal transmission parameters to better understand and predict disease spread. However, seasonal variation in disease notification is a common feature of surveillance data and needs to be taken into account appropriately. In this paper, we extend a time series model for spatiotemporal surveillance counts to incorporate seasonal variation in three distinct components. A simulation study confirms that the different types of seasonality are identifiable and that a predictive approach suggested for model selection performs well. Application to surveillance data on influenza in Southern Germany reveals a better model fit and improved one‐step‐ahead predictions if all three components allow for seasonal variation.     

Cryopreserved human haematopoietic stem cells retain engraftment potential after extended (5-14 years) cryostorage

Harvesting of stem cells during the early phases of treatment with no immediate intention to perform a stem cell transplant is becoming an increasingly common practice. Such "insurance" harvests are often stored for many years before being needed for transplant in a subsequent relapse. The effect of long-term cryostorage (5-14 years) on the viability and functional capacity of haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) was investigated in 40 bone marrow and peripheral blood harvests using standard in vitro methods, the colony forming unit-granulocyte/macrophage (CFU-GM) assay and a single platform viable CD34(+) cell absolute count by flow cytometry. Forty percent of harvests had CD34(+) HSC counts of at least 0.7 x 10(6)/kg bodyweight and 85% had CFU-GM counts of at least 1.0 x 10(5)/kg bodyweight, these values representing our institutional minimum requirements for safe transplantation. Based on these results, it appears that HSC collections can remain adequate for safe transplantation after up to 14 years of cryostorage. However, as deterioration of HSC quality and viability may occur, some precautions may be warranted, namely harvesting higher than normal numbers of HSCs in collections intended for long-term storage and repeating in vitro assays on harvests after long-term storage prior to transplantation.     

阴山山脉天然侧柏林的基本特征

阴山山脉是中国天然侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)林分布的西北界, 侧柏林也是阴山山脉最主要的森林群落之一。它具有较好的固坡、保土、涵养水源及改善生境的作用。为了解阴山山脉天然侧柏林种群、群落特征和空间分布规律以更好地为侧柏林的经营提供理论依据, 我们以阴山山脉大青山及乌拉山段天然侧柏林为研究对象, 通过样方调查, 分析了侧柏林的植物区系特征, 并根据群落各层片物种优势度将该区侧柏林划分为6个群丛类型, 分析了各群丛特征及其空间分布的生态序列。结果表明: (1)阴山山脉天然侧柏林群落共出现维管植物96种, 隶属于30科70属, 种的地理成分包括8个类型18个亚型, 其中东古北极分布最多, 其次为东亚分布; (2)从群落结构分析, 发育良好的侧柏群落表现为完整的乔木层和草本层, 灌木盖度普遍偏低, 基本不能成层, 在干扰较为严重的地段甚至消失; (3)各群丛侧柏的径级结构基本呈正态分布, 属于稳定的群落类型, 侧柏的平均株高随胸径的增大整体呈增长型; (4)该区侧柏林受干扰较严重, 加之严酷的生境条件, 建群种侧柏的平均胸径较小且植株分叉较多, 不适合作为用材林, 建议将其作为生态公益林及种源林加以保护利用。     

时间序列修订对森林二氧化碳通量的影响

对长白山阔叶红松林2003年生长季的涡动相关实测时间序列进行了去倾修订与超声风速仪倾斜修订,并分析了不同修订方法对森林CO2通量计算值的影响．结果表明,基于未修订时间序列计算得到的森林CO2通量(Fcraw)被高估．线性与非线性去倾对Fcraw的修订量分别为1．6％、1．8％,两者差异很小．平面拟合坐标变换与流线坐标变换对Fcraw的修订量分别为3．7％、4．7％,两者差异较大．对线性去倾后的时间序列分别进行流线坐标变换与平面拟合坐标变换,二者对Fcraw的修订量分别为5．5％与4．6％．建议对时间序列进行线性去倾与平面拟合坐标变换综合修订．     

Influence of synchronization between adult emergence and host plant phenology on the population density of Pseudasphondylia neolitseae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) inducing leaf galls on Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae)

Synchronization between the appearance of herbivorous insects and their host-plant phenology is a critical event, especially for short-lived insects such as gall midges. We studied a natural population of Pseudasphondylia neolitseae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) that induces leaf galls on Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae) to evaluate the effect of synchronization on gall density in the subsequent generation. To do so, we combined quantitative data on host resources with time lag between emergence and host-available seasons. The gamma distribution model was applied to the emergence curve of P. neolitseae and the normal distribution model to the daily changes in the number of host buds suitable for oviposition; the latter model was transformed into an available-resource curve based on the mean number of host buds required for a single female to realize her eggs. By superimposing the emergence curve on the available-resource curve and calculating overlapped area, the degree of synchronization was evaluated more accurately than previous studies, which had treated only the time lag. The number of females that synchronized with host buds affected gall density in the next generation.     

Diurnal variations in ventilatory and cardiorespiratory responses to submaximal treadmill exercise in females

Diurnal variations in ventilatory and cardiorespiratory responses to submaximal treadmill exercise were analysed in 11 eumenorrhoeic women and in 10 women using monophasic oral contraceptives. Subjects performed submaximal treadmill exercise at three intensities averaging 7, 8, and 9 km x h(-1), each for 4 min at 0800, 1300 and 1700 hours, assigned randomly on 3 separate days. Rectal temperature was measured before (T(rec(b))) and after (T(rec(a))) exercise. Cardiac frequency (f(c)), ventilation (V(E)), oxygen uptake (VO(2)), carbon dioxide output (VCO(2)), and respiratory exchange ratio (R) were assessed in the last minute of each stage of the exercise. Both T(rec(b)) and T(rec(a)) increased from 0800 to 1700 hours (P < 0.001). For a given submaximal work rate, VO(2) and VCO(2) were higher in the afternoon compared to the morning. Similarly, R was increased at 1700 hours compared to 0800 hours during the recovery period following exercise (P < 0.05). However, V(E) did not vary significantly during the day at any of the running intensities. No significant interactions (group x time of day) were observed in any of the studied parameters. In contrast to ventilation, the VO(2) and VCO(2) of the females during submaximal exercise were both affected by the time of day, without any differences between eumenorrhoeic women and users of oral contraceptives.     

Biochemical acclimation of metabolic enzymes in response to lowered temperature in tadpoles of Limnodynastes peronii

We measured the rate at which the metabolic enzymes lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), citrate synthase (CS), and cytochrome c oxidase (CCO) acclimate in the response to lowered temperature in the axial muscle of tadpoles of Limnodynastes peronii (Anura: Myobatrachidae) over 6 weeks. In addition, we measured growth rates of the tadpoles kept at both temperatures and examined the activities of these enzymes in the liver tissue of the control group and cold-acclimated group at the end of the experiment. We found that LDH acclimates in axial muscle; the differences between the control and cold-acclimated group became apparent after 21 days. After 42 days, the activity of LDH in axial muscle in the cold-acclimated group was 30% greater than the control group. Growth rates were maintained at 0.7 mm/week within both treatments despite the 10 degrees C difference in temperature between experimental groups. Both LDH and CS were increased in activity in the liver (5 and 1.3 times greater, respectively, in the cold-acclimated group). The thermal sensitivity (Q(10)) of LDH was between 20 and 30 degrees C in the cold-acclimated group (1.2+/-0.01) when compared to the control group (1.6+/-0.15). The rate at which acclimation in this species occurs is appropriate for seasonal changes in temperature, and these animals may not be able to respond to a rapid drop in temperature.     

Thirty-five years of synchrony in the organic matter concentrations of Swedish rivers explained by variation in flow and sulphate

Increasing concentrations of organic matter (OM) in surface waters have been noted over large parts of the boreal/nemoral zone in Europe and North America. This has raised questions about the causes and the likelihood of further increases. A number of drivers have been proposed, including temperature, hydrology, as well as ‐ and Cl^? deposition. The data reported so far, however, have been insufficient to define the relative importance of different drivers in landscapes where they interact. Thirty‐five years of monthly measurements of absorbance and chemical oxygen demand (COD), two common proxies for OM, from 28 large Scandinavian catchments provide an unprecedented opportunity to resolve the importance of hypothesized drivers. For 21 of the catchments, there are 18 years of total organic carbon (TOC) measurements as well. Despite the heterogeneity of the catchments with regards to climate, size and land use, there is a high degree of synchronicity in OM across the entire region. Rivers go from widespread trends of decreasing OM to increasing trends and back again three times in the 35‐year record. This synchronicity in decadal scale oscillations and long‐term trends suggest a common set of dominant OM drivers in these landscapes. Here, we use regression models to test the importance of different potential drivers. We show that flow and together can predict most of the interannual variability in OM proxies, up to 88% for absorbance, up to 78% for COD. Two other candidate drivers, air temperature and Cl^?, add little explanatory value. Declines in anthropogenic since the mid‐1970s are thus related to the observed OM increases in Scandinavia, but, in contrast to many recent studies, flow emerges as an even more important driver of OM variability. Stabilizing levels also mean that hydrology is likely to be the major driver of future variability and trends in OM.