A latent class model to multiply impute missing treatment indicators in observational studies when inferences of the treatment effect are made using propensity score matching

Analysts often estimate treatment effects in observational studies using propensity score matching techniques. When there are missing covariate values, analysts can multiply impute the missing data to create m completed data sets. Analysts can then estimate propensity scores on each of the completed data sets, and use these to estimate treatment effects. However, there has been relatively little attention on developing imputation models to deal with the additional problem of missing treatment indicators, perhaps due to the consequences of generating implausible imputations. However, simply ignoring the missing treatment values, akin to a complete case analysis, could also lead to problems when estimating treatment effects. We propose a latent class model to multiply impute missing treatment indicators. We illustrate its performance through simulations and with data taken from a study on determinants of children's cognitive development. This approach is seen to obtain treatment effect estimates closer to the true treatment effect than when employing conventional imputation procedures as well as compared to a complete case analysis.     

定量分析调控人类免疫缺陷病毒潜伏与激活的动力学机制

目的 治疗艾滋病最大的障碍在于无法根除人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）潜伏于人体细胞所形成的病毒存储库。构建描述病毒存储库建立分子机制的动力学模型需考虑生物体内的噪声环境和多重影响因素,本文通过一种全新的动力学结构分解方法将随机微分方程的确定性部分与随机性噪声分开,从而在仅需分析常微分方程不动点的情况下即可判断不同药物靶点的作用效果。方法 使用连续的随机微分方程构建了HIV转录过程的动力学模型,简化了描述系统所需方程的维度,增大了模型的可探索空间,在此基础上,通过计算得到的势能函数和概率分布函数直观表示病毒潜伏与激活的不同表达状态以及它们之间的关系。结果 定量分析了不同动力学参数对系统稳态和势函数的影响程度,分别得到了系统处于双稳态和单稳态时的参数范围,并将不同因素对动力系统分岔的影响程度与生物学实验结果对比,验证了本工作的理论基础。结论 本文突破了以往离散、随机的方法,可以通过常微分方程定量分析HIV转录调控的动力学机制,有利于推广到处理高维情况,进一步研究艾滋病在生物体内的发生发展,从而指导设计实验寻找临床上的治疗方案。     

茜草属药用植物的研究——Ⅲ.11种茜草属药材的组织形成学研究

本文除对主流商品茜草的生药性状和组织构造作了较全面的描述,还利用图、表及照片列出狭叶茜草P.truppeliana Loes、Loeb、小红参(滇茜草)R.yunnomensis Dtels、中华茜草R.chinensis Regel et maack、大叶茜草R.schumanniana Pritz、按针叶茜草R.lanceolata Hayata、大茜草R.magna Hisao、钩毛茜草R.oncotrucha Hand-Mazz、红花茜草R.podantha Diels、金剑草R.alata Wall、新疆茜草(洋茜草)R.tinctorum L等10种与茜草Rubia cordifolia L的主要区别点,并作药材检索表,以利鉴别。     

中药羌活的研究

本文对中药羌活进行了本草考证,概括了羌活的化学成分、药理等方面的研究成果,并对羌活原植物的根进行了显微观察、薄层层析分析等,为正确鉴定药用羌活提供了资料。     

The effect of the Flemish breast cancer screening program on breast cancer-specific mortality: A case-referent study

BackgroundBreast cancer screening programs were introduced in many countries worldwide following randomized controlled trials in the 1980s showing a reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality. However, their effectiveness remains debated and estimates vary. A breast cancer screening program was introduced in 2001 in Flanders, Belgium where high levels of opportunistic screening practices are observed. The effectiveness of this program was estimated by measuring its effect on breast cancer-specific mortality.MethodsWe performed a case-referent study to investigate the effect of participation in the Flemish population-based mammography screening program (PMSP) on breast cancer-specific mortality from 2005 to 2017. A multiple logistic regression model assessed the association between breast cancer-specific death and screening program participation status in the four years prior to (pseudo)diagnosis (yes/no), with adjustment for potential confounders (individual socio-economic position and calendar year of diagnosis) and stratified for age. In addition, we performed different sensitivity analyses.ResultsWe identified 1571 cases and randomly selected 6284 referents. After adjustment, women who participated in PMSP had a 51 % lower risk of breast cancer-specific mortality compared to those who did not (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] =0.49, 95 % CI: 0.44–0.55). Sensitivity analyses did not markedly change the estimated associations. Correction for self-selection bias reduced the effect size, but the estimate remained significant.ConclusionOur results indicate that in a context of high opportunistic screening rates, participation in breast cancer screening program substantially reduces breast cancer-specific mortality. For policy, these results should be balanced against the potential harms of screening, including overdiagnosis and overtreatment.     

Development and validation of robust metabolism-related gene signature in the prognostic prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumours worldwide. Given metabolic reprogramming in tumours was a crucial hallmark, several studies have demonstrated its value in the diagnostics and surveillance of malignant tumours. The present study aimed to identify a cluster of metabolism-related genes to construct a prediction model for the prognosis of HCC. Multiple cohorts of HCC cases (466 cases) from public datasets were included in the present analysis. (GEO cohort) After identifying a list of metabolism-related genes associated with prognosis, a risk score based on metabolism-related genes was formulated via the LASSO-Cox and LASSO-pcvl algorithms. According to the risk score, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups, and further analysis and validation were accordingly conducted. The results revealed that high-risk patients had a significantly worse 5-year overall survival (OS) than low-risk patients in the GEO cohort. (30.0% vs. 57.8%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.411; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.302–0.651; p < 0.001) This observation was confirmed in the external TCGA-LIHC cohort. (34.5% vs. 54.4%; HR 0.452; 95% CI, 0.299–0.681; p < 0.001) To promote the predictive ability of the model, risk score, age, gender and tumour stage were integrated into a nomogram. According to the results of receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curves analysis, the nomogram score possessed a superior predictive ability than conventional factors, which indicate that the risk score combined with clinicopathological features was able to achieve a robust prediction for OS and improve the individualized clinical decision making of HCC patients. In conclusion, the metabolic genes related to OS were identified and developed a metabolism-based predictive model for HCC. Through a series of bioinformatics and statistical analyses, the predictive ability of the model was approved.     

Prevalence and trends of common mental disorders from 2007-2009 to 2019-2022: results from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Studies (NEMESIS), including comparison of prevalence rates before vs. during the COVID-19 pandemic

Up-to-date information on the prevalence and trends of common mental disorders is relevant to health care policy and planning, owing to the high burden associated with these disorders. In the first wave of the third Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-3), a nationally representative sample was interviewed face-to-face from November 2019 to March 2022 (6,194 subjects; 1,576 interviewed before and 4,618 during the COVID-19 pandemic; age range: 18-75 years). A slightly modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used to assess DSM-IV and DSM-5 diagnoses. Trends in 12-month prevalence rates of DSM-IV mental disorders were examined by comparing these rates between NEMESIS-3 and NEMESIS-2 (6,646 subjects; age range: 18-64 years; interviewed from November 2007 to July 2009). Lifetime DSM-5 prevalence estimates in NEMESIS-3 were 28.6% for anxiety disorders, 27.6% for mood disorders, 16.7% for substance use disorders, and 3.6% for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Over the last 12 months, prevalence rates were 15.2%, 9.8%, 7.1%, and 3.2%, respectively. No differences in 12-month prevalence rates before vs. during the COVID-19 pandemic were found (26.7% pre-pandemic vs. 25.7% during the pandemic), even after controlling for differences in socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents interviewed in these two periods. This was the case for all four disorder categories. From 2007-2009 to 2019-2022, the 12-month prevalence rate of any DSM-IV disorder significantly increased from 17.4% to 26.1%. A stronger increase in prevalence was found for students, younger adults (18-34 years) and city dwellers. These data suggest that the prevalence of mental disorders has increased in the past decade, but this is not explained by the COVID-19 pandemic. The already high mental disorder risk of young adults has particularly further increased in recent years.     

The effects of grazing and burning on soil and plant nutrient concentrations in Colombian páramo grasslands

The impact of extensive livestock farming on the physical and chemical characteristics of the volcanic soils and on the nutrient status of green plant tissues of neotropical alpine grasslands (páramo) is studied. Soil and plant samples were taken over a one-year period at five sites with different agricultural (grazing and burning) management. In the undisturbed páramo ecosystem, soil moisture (50–250%) and organic matter content are high (7–27%) and decomposition (11–35% yr^-1) and element concentrations are low. Low temperatures (max < 10°C) and phosphorus fixation by the soil (5 mg P g^-1 soil) determine the low mineralization and turn-over rates.Multivariate analysis of laboratory results indicates that the season of sampling and the agricultural practice are the most important explanatory factors for variation of soil characteristics. After long-term heavy grazing, soils have a higher bulk density and a lower moisture content. The outcome of a litterbag experiment confirms the hypothesis of higher decomposition rates at grazed sites. In the intermediate (wet-dry) season, conditions were somewhat better for plant growth but the system remained nutrient limited.Surprisingly, no relation between soil density, moisture or carbon content and concentrations of available nutrients in the soil is found. This is supported by the rather uniform nutrient concentrations in green plant tissue among the sites. It is concluded therefore that the effect of burning and grazing on páramo soils is principally restricted to physical characteristics, and that differences in chemical characteristics of the soil do not cause differences in vegetation structure between grazed, burned and undisturbed sites.The Netherlands Centre for Geo-ecological Research, ICG.     

Towards an understanding of the relations between tree nutrition,nutrient cycling and environment

The paper contains a discussion of the interrelations between the sciences used by managers of forest land to improve their management, in particular with respect to the plant nutrient economy of the forest ecosystems. Both site studies and studies of nutrient cycling have been carried out for long periods without proper consideration of tree nutrition. Therefore these studies contributed less to the understanding of the role of nutrients as regulators of processes in ecosystems than might have been expected. This situation has improved, especially within the last decade. In addition the necessity to manage forest land for environmental values as well as for forest yield requires new interdisciplinary approaches in the study of the roles of plant nutrients in the forest. Even more branches of biological and environmental sciences than those just mentioned must be involved.     

Does nitrogen availability control rates of litter decomposition in forests?

The effects of increased exogenous N availability on rates of litter decomposition were assessed in several field fertilization trials. In a jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) forest, needle litter decomposed at the same rate in control plots and in plots fertilized with urea and ammonium nitrate (1350 kg N ha^-1) with or without P and K. Mixed needle litter of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western red cedar (Thuja plicata Donn) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) incubated in plots recently amended with sewage sludge (500 kg N ha^-1) lost less weight during 3 years than did litter in control plots. Forest floor material also decomposed more slowly in plots amended with sewage sludge. Paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) leaf litter placed on sewage sludge (1000 kg N ha^-1), pulp sludge, or sewage-pulp sludge mixtures decomposed at the same rate as leaf litter in control plots. These experiments demonstrate little effect of exogenous N availability on rates of litter decomposition.The influence of endogenous N availability on rates of litter decomposition was examined in a microcosm experiment. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) needle litter collected from N-fertilized trees (525 kg N ha^-1 in ammonium nitrate) were 5 times richer in N than needles from control trees (1.56% N versus 0.33% N in control trees), but decomposed at the same rate. Green needles from fertilized trees contained twice as much N as needles from control trees (1.91% N versus 0.88% N), but decomposed at the same rate. These experiments suggest that N availability alone, either exogenous or endogenous, does not control rates of litter decomposition. Increased N availability, through fertilization or deposition, in the absence of changes in vegetation composition, will not alter rates of litter decomposition in forests.