Using population viability analysis to examine the potential long-term impact of fisheries bycatch on protected species

Fisheries bycatch is recognised as the dominant anthropogenic threat facing many protected species globally. Estimates of total bycatch are often associated with wide confidence intervals as a result of limited coverage by on-board observers. This makes it difficult for managers to assess risk and design effective management plans. Here, we present a case study of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) bycatch in static net fisheries across Irish waters, where potentially unsustainable bycatch levels have been reported with typically wide confidence intervals. We used Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to explore potential bycatch scenarios at a national level in order to inform future monitoring and management efforts; including (i) a baseline scenario where the probability of seals becoming bycaught was independent of age and sex; (ii) probability was biased towards juvenile, male, or female seals; (iii) there was net immigration of seals from outside of the national population; and (iv) colony-specific bycatch rates were applied to assess the relative vulnerability of the major grey seal breeding colonies to bycatch mortality. Results demonstrated that (i) higher levels of bycatch reduced population growth, with bycatch of 800 seals per year reducing the national population by 99% over 100 years; (ii) population viability was most sensitive to bycatch mortality of female seals, and more robust to juvenile or male mortality; (iii) recruitment of 500 seals per year prevented population decline despite a worst-case bycatch scenario of 800 seals bycaught per year; (iv) colonies in the south and southwest were the first to show signs of decline under increasing bycatch pressure. PVA provides a clear justification for improved monitoring of seal bycatch to obtain more precise bycatch estimates, and highlights the need for future studies to identify appropriate grey seal management units.     

Parasites in harbour seals (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phoca vitulina</Emphasis>) from the German Wadden Sea between two Phocine Distemper Virus epidemics

Parasites were collected from 107 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) found on the coasts of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, between 1997 and 2000. The prevalence of the parasites and their associated pathology were investigated. Eight species of parasites, primarily nematodes, were identified from the examined organs: two anisakid nematodes (Pseudoterranova decipiens (sensu lato), Contracaecum osculatum (sensu lato)) from the stomach, Otostrongylus circumlitus (Crenosomatidae) and Parafilaroides gymnurus (Filaroididae) from the respiratory tract, one filarioid nematode (Acanthocheilonema spirocauda) from the heart, two acanthocephalans, Corynosoma strumosum and C. semerme (Polymorphidae), from the intestine and an ectoparasite, Echinophthirius horridus (Anoplura, Insecta). Lungworm infection was the most prominent parasitological finding and secondary bacterial bronchopneumonia the most pathogenic lesion correlated with the parasites. Heavy nematode burdens in the respiratory tract were highly age-related and more frequent in young seals. A positive correlation was observed between high levels of pulmonary infection and severity of bronchopneumonia. The prevalence of lungworms in this study was higher than in seals that died during the 1988/1989 Phocine Distemper Virus epidemic, and the prevalence of acanthocephalans and heartworms had decreased compared to findings from the first die-off.     

Rare piebald and partially leucistic Antarctic fur seals, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctocephalus gazella</Emphasis>, at Cape Shirreff,Livingston Island,Antarctica

We document five cases of unusual colouration in Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island, from 1991–1992 to 2005–2006 austral summer seasons. This is the first time that these colour patterns have been reported for this species. These included four rare light coloured animals and one piebald individual. The incidence of this atypical colouring was low and the lack of resightings in previous and subsequent seasons suggests that these morphs are not common in Antarctic fur seals. Although the causes of these atypical light colour patterns are uncertain the subject is interesting for study and more observations on these atypical colourations are required for a proper assessment of the ecological and physiological implications of this condition in otariids can be conducted in the future.     

Interannual variation in pup production and the timing of breeding in benthic foraging Australian fur seals

Large interannual variations in reproductive success caused by fluctuations in oceanography and prey availability are common to many species of air breathing epipelagic predators. In contrast, little is known about variation in benthic foragers such as Australian fur seals ( Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus ). Between 1997 and 2007, pup production was assessed in 9 yr, while the timing of breeding and adult female condition was assessed in 5 yr at Kanowna Island in Bass Strait, southeastern Australia. Pup production was variable (     = 1,726 ± 42, range = 1,386–2,301), but without temporal trend, as was median birth date (     = 23 November ± 1, range = 21–25 November) and pupping synchrony (period of 90% births:     = 28 ± 2 d, range = 23–31 d). Pup production was negatively correlated with median birth date and positively correlated with female condition, winter sea-surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind strength within Bass Strait. Pup production was also negatively correlated with SST in the previous summer within Bass Strait and in the eastern Great Australian Bight upwelling region. The results suggest that the reproductive success of Australian fur seals is influenced by oceanography but less so than in otariids foraging epipelagically in major upwellings. Despite spanning several El Niño events, no correlation between pup production and the Southern Oscillation Index was observed.     

Contrasting trends in gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup production throughout the increasing northwest Atlantic metapopulation

The northwest Atlantic subspecies of gray seal (Halicheorus grypus grypus) has been increasing for more than a half century and has reestablished breeding colonies in Canadian and US waters. In 2016, visual, oblique, and vertical large-format digital photographic surveys were conducted at all known breeding colonies in the northwest Atlantic. Total pup production in the northwest Atlantic was estimated to be 109,000 (SE = 17,500) pups. At 87,500 (SE = 15,100) pups, Sable Island accounts for 80% of total pup production. Regional differences in pup production trends are evident. Pup production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and along the eastern shore of Nova Scotia has been relatively stable. Since 2004, the rate of increase in pup production at Sable Island has slowed to about 5%–7% per year, while the newer colonies in southwest Nova Scotia and the northeastern United States are increasing rapidly. In 2016, the Muskeget Island (MA) breeding colony produced 3,900 (SE = 200) pups, making it the third largest breeding colony in the northwest Atlantic. This southward shift in production may reflect climate-mediated changes in population growth as well as reestablishment of colonies throughout the former range associated with increased protection.     

PUP PRODUCTION AND POPULATION TRENDS OF THE AUSTRALIAN FUR SEAL (ARCTOCEPHALUS PUSILLUS DORIFERUS)

We estimated the number of live Australian fur seal pups using capture-markresights, direct ground counts, or aerial photography at all breeding sites following the pupping season of November-December 2002. Pups were recorded at 17 locations; nine previously known colony sites, one newly recognized colony and seven haul-out sites where pups are occasionally born. In order of size, the colonies were Lady Julia Percy Island (5,899 pups), Seal Rocks (4,882), The Skerries (2,486), Judgment Rocks (2,427), Kanowna Island (2,301), Moriarty Rocks (1,007), Reid Rocks (384), West Moncoeur Island (257), and Tenth Island (124). The newly recognized site was Rag Island, in the Cliffy Group, where we recorded 30 pups. We also recorded pups at the following haul-out sites: Cape Bridge-water (7 pups), Bull Rock (7), Wright Rock (5), Twin Islet (1), The Friars (1), He des Phoques (1), and Montague Island (1). In total, we estimate there were 19,819 (SE = 163) live pups at the time of the counts. We discuss trends in pup numbers and derive current population estimates for the Australian fur seal.     

WEDDELL SEAL UNDERWATER CALLING RATES DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING NEAR MAWSON STATION, ANTARCTICA

Underwater vocalization monitoring and surveys, both on ice and underwater, were used to determine if Weddell seals ( Leptonychotes weddellii ) near Mawson Station, Antarctica, remain under the fast ice during winter within close range of breeding sites. Daytime and nighttime underwater calling rates were examined at seven breeding sites during austral winter and spring to identify seasonal and diel patterns. Seals rarely hauled out at any of the sites during winter, although all cohorts (adult males, females, and juveniles) were observed underwater and surfacing at breathing holes throughout winter (June–September) and spring (October–December). Seal vocalizations were recorded during each sampling session throughout the study ( n = 102 daytime at seven sites collectively, and n = 5 24-h samples at each of two sites). Mean daytime calling rate was low in mid-winter (July) (mean = 18.9 ± 7.1 calls/min) but increased monthly, reaching a peak during the breeding season (November) (mean = 62.6 ± 15.7 calls/min). Mean nighttime calling rate was high throughout the winter and early spring (July–October) with mean nocturnal calling rate in July (mean = 61.8 ± 35.1 calls/min) nearly equal to mean daytime calling rate in November (during 24-h daylight). Reduced vocal behavior during winter daylight periods may result from animals utilizing the limited daylight hours for nonvocal activities, possibly feeding.     

A PREHISTORIC BREEDING POPULATION OF HARP SEALS (PHOCA GROENLANDICA) IN THE BALTIC SEA

The pelagic and gregarious, low Arctic harp seal ( Phoca groenlandica ) is the most common seal species in most refuse faunas from coastal hunter-gatherer sites dating from the late Atlantic to the early Subboreal period ( ca. 4000-2000 cal B. C.) in the Baltic Sea. Our main objective was to examine the migration contra breeding population hypotheses regarding the Baltic harp seals. Analyses of epiphyseal fusion data and osteometry of archeological harp seal remains from 25 dwelling-sites suggest that a local breeding population established itself in the early Subboreal period. In the Middle Neolithic the rookery possibly was situated in the Baltic proper, south of Aland and west of Gotland. The mean adult size of the Baltic harp seals decreased, suggesting minimal genetic exchange with the north Atlantic Ocean population. Genetic drift, interspecific competition, and over-hunting by humans are all factors likely to have contributed to the eventual extinction of harp seals in the Baltic Sea.     

Locomotion in diving elephant seals: physical and physiological constraints

To better understand how elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) use negative buoyancy to reduce energy metabolism and prolong dive duration, we modelled the energetic cost of transit and deep foraging dives in an elephant seal. A numerical integration technique was used to model the effects of swim speed, descent and ascent angles, and modes of locomotion (i.e. stroking and gliding) on diving metabolic rate, aerobic dive limit, vertical displacement (maximum dive depth) and horizontal displacement (maximum horizontal distance along a straight line between the beginning and end locations of the dive) for aerobic transit and foraging dives. Realistic values of the various parameters were taken from previous experimental data. Our results indicate that there is little energetic advantage to transit dives with gliding descent compared with horizontal swimming beneath the surface. Other factors such as feeding and predator avoidance may favour diving to depth during migration. Gliding descent showed variable energy savings for foraging dives. Deep mid-water foraging dives showed the greatest energy savings (approx. 18%) as a result of gliding during descent. In contrast, flat-bottom foraging dives with horizontal swimming at a depth of 400m showed less of an energetic advantage with gliding descent, primarily because more of the dive involved stroking. Additional data are needed before the advantages of gliding descent can be fully understood for male and female elephant seals of different age and body composition. This type of data will require animal-borne instruments that can record the behaviour, three-dimensional movements and locomotory performance of free-ranging animals at depth.     

Foraging habitats based on the diet of female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska

Scats (fecal samples) collected between 1987 and 2000 on northern fur seal Callorhinus ursinus rookeries of St Paul ( n =2968) and St George Islands ( n =1203), Alaska, were used to examine the relationship between breeding sites and food habits of adult female seals. On the basis of the frequency of occurrence (FO) and per cent minimum number of individual prey (%MNI) in scats, juvenile walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma and gonatid squid Gonatopsis borealis/Berryteuthis magister and Gonatus madokai/Gonatus middendorffi were the dominant prey species consumed overall. Other primary prey (FO>5%) included Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapteus , Pacific herring Clupea pallasi , northern smoothtongue Leuroglossus schmidti , Atka mackerel Pleurogrammus monopterygius , Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and other squid of the Gonatus genus. We identified five rookery complexes from a cluster analysis of the FO of primary prey in scats. Rookery complexes were separated geographically and each was further defined by characteristic patterns in the representation of prey types typically associated with specific hydrographic domains. Diet differences were observed among rookeries on the north and south side of St George Island and on the east, south and south-west side of St Paul Island. The rookery clusters observed in this study provide evidence of resource partitioning among adult female northern fur seals and have important implications for fur seal conservation and management.