Stochastic modeling of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the region of Valencia,Spain

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the population using stochastic models. The stochastic models are developed introducing stochastic perturbations on the demographic parameter as well as on the transmission rate of the RSV. Numerical simulations of the deterministic and stochastic models are performed in order to understand the effect of fluctuating birth rate and transmission rate of the RSV on the population dynamics. The numerical solutions of stochastic models are calculated using Euler-Maruyama and Milstein schemes, and confidence intervals for stochastic solutions are given using Monte-Carlo method. Analysis of the numerical results reveals that perturbations on the transmission rate are more decisive in the dynamics of RSV than perturbations on demographic parameters. In addition, the stochastic models show the advantage of reproducing more effectively the noisy RSV hospitalization data. It is concluded that these stochastic models are a viable option to provide a realistic modeling of the RSV dynamics on the population.     

Energetics and dynamics of global integrals modeling interaction between stiff filaments

The attractive and spacing interaction between pairs of filaments via cross-linkers, e.g. myosin oligomers connecting actin filaments, is modeled by global integral kernels for negative binding energies between two intersecting stiff and long rods in a (projected) two-dimensional situation, for simplicity. Whereas maxima of the global energy functional represent intersection angles of ‘minimal contact’ between the filaments, minima are approached for energy values tending to −∞, representing the two degenerate states of parallel and anti-parallel filament alignment. Standard differential equations of negative gradient flow for such energy functionals show convergence of solutions to one of these degenerate equilibria in finite time, thus called ‘super-stable’ states. By considering energy variations under virtual rotation or translation of one filament with respect to the other, integral kernels for the resulting local forces parallel and orthogonal to the filament are obtained. For the special modeling situation that these variations only activate ‘spring forces’ in direction of the cross-links, explicit formulas for total torque and translational forces are given and calculated for typical examples. Again, the two degenerate alignment states are locally ‘super-stable’ equilibria of the assumed over-damped dynamics, but also other stable states of orthogonal arrangement and different asymptotic behavior can occur. These phenomena become apparent if stochastic perturbations of the local force kernels are implemented as additive Gaussian noise induced by the cross-link binding process with appropriate scaling. Then global filament dynamics is described by a certain type of degenerate stochastic differential equations yielding asymptotic stationary processes around the alignment states, which have generalized, namely bimodal Gaussian distributions. Moreover, stochastic simulations reveal characteristic sliding behavior as it is observed for myosin-mediated interaction between actin filaments. Finally, the forgoing explicit and asymptotic analysis as well as numerical simulations are extended to the more realistic modeling situation with filaments of finite length.

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Identification and comparison of stochastic metabolic/hemodynamic models (sMHM) for the generation of the BOLD signal

This paper extends a previously formulated deterministic metabolic/hemodynamic model for the generation of blood oxygenated level dependent (BOLD) responses to include both physiological and observation stochastic components (sMHM). This adds a degree of flexibility when fitting the model to actual data by accounting for un-modelled activity. We then show how the innovation method can be used to estimate unobserved metabolic/hemodynamic as well as vascular variables of the sMHM, from simulated and actual BOLD data. The proposed estimation method allowed for doing model comparison by calculating the model’s AIC and BIC. This methodology was then used to select between different neurovascular coupling assumptions underlying sMHM. The proposed framework was first validated on simulations and then applied to BOLD data from a motor task experiment. The models under comparison in the analysis of the actual data considered that vascular response was coupled to: (I) inhibition, (II) excitation, (III) both excitation and inhibition. Data was best described by model II, although model III was also supported.     

A finite volume method for stochastic integrate-and-fire models

The stochastic integrate and fire neuron is one of the most commonly used stochastic models in neuroscience. Although some cases are analytically tractable, a full analysis typically calls for numerical simulations. We present a fast and accurate finite volume method to approximate the solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. The discretization of the boundary conditions offers a particular challenge, as standard operator splitting approaches cannot be applied without modification. We demonstrate the method using stationary and time dependent inputs, and compare them with Monte Carlo simulations. Such simulations are relatively easy to implement, but can suffer from convergence difficulties and long run times. In comparison, our method offers improved accuracy, and decreases computation times by several orders of magnitude. The method can easily be extended to two and three dimensional Fokker-Planck equations.

A Stochastic Model of Gene Evolution with Time Dependent Pseudochaotic Mutations

We develop here a new class of stochastic models of gene evolution in which a random subset of the 64 possible trinucleotides mutates at each evolutionary time t according to some time dependent substitution probabilities. Therefore, at each time t, the numbers and the types of mutable trinucleotides are unknown. Thus, the mutation matrix changes at each time t. This pseudochaotic model developed generalizes the standard model in which all the trinucleotides mutate at each time t. It determines the occurrence probabilities at time t of trinucleotides which pseudochaotically mutate according to 3 time dependent substitution parameters associated with the 3 trinucleotide sites. The main result proves that under suitable assumptions, this pseudochaotic model converges to a uniform probability vector identical to that of the standard model. Furthermore, an application of this pseudochaotic model allows an evolutionary study of the 3 circular codes identified in both eukaryotic and prokaryotic genes. A circular code is a particular set of trinucleotides whose main property is the retrieval of the frames in genes locally, i.e., anywhere in genes and particularly without start codons, and automatically with a window of a few nucleotides. After a certain evolutionary time and with particular time dependent functions for the 3 substitution parameters, precisely an exponential decrease in the 1st and 2nd trinucleotide sites and an exponential increase in the 3rd one, this pseudochaotic model retrieves the main statistical properties of the 3 circular codes observed in genes. Furthermore, it leads to a circular code asymmetry stronger than the standard model (nonpseudochaotic) and, therefore, to a better correlation with the genes.     

Variability of the distribution of differentiation pathway choices regulated by a multipotent delayed stochastic switch

We study the plasticity of a delayed stochastic model of a genetic toggle switch as a multipotent differentiation pathway switch, at the single cell and cell population levels, by observing distributions of differentiation pathways choices of genetically homogeneous cell populations. Assuming a model of stochastic pathway determination of cell differentiation that is regulated by the proteins of the switch, we vary the proteins’ expression level and degradation rates, which cells are known to be able to regulate, to vary mean level, noise, and bias of the proteins’ expression levels. It is shown that small changes in each of these dynamical features significantly and distinctively affects the dynamics of the switch at the single cell level and thus, the cell differentiation patterns. The regulation of these features allows cells to regulate their pluripotency and cell populations’ distribution of lineage choice, suggesting that the stochastic switch has high plasticity regarding differentiation pathway choice regulation, thus providing adaptability to environmental stresses and changes.     

Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza: the roles of stochasticity, evolution and model details

Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided important insights, the inherently stochastic nature of resistance generation and spread, as well as the potential for ongoing evolution of the resistant strain have not been fully addressed. Here, we study a stochastic model of drug resistance emergence and consecutive evolution of the resistant strain in response to antiviral control during an influenza pandemic. We find that taking into consideration the ongoing evolution of the resistant strain does not increase the probability of resistance emergence; however, it increases the total number of infecteds if a resistant outbreak occurs. Our study further shows that taking stochasticity into account leads to results that can differ from deterministic models. Specifically, we find that rapid and strong control cannot only contain a drug sensitive outbreak, it can also prevent a resistant outbreak from occurring. We find that the best control strategy is early intervention heavily based on prophylaxis at a level that leads to outbreak containment. If containment is not possible, mitigation works best at intermediate levels of antiviral control. Finally, we show that the results are not very sensitive to the way resistance generation is modeled.     

Stochastic modelling of prey depletion processes

The modelling of prey-predator interactions is of major importance for the understanding of population dynamics. Classically, these interactions are modelled using ordinary differential equations, but this approach has the drawbacks of assuming continuous population variables and of being deterministic. We propose a general approach to stochastic modelling based on the concept of functional response for a prey depletion process with a constant number of predators. Our model could involve any kind of functional response, and permits a likelihood-based approach to statistical modelling and stable computation using matrix exponentials. To illustrate the method we use the Holling-Juliano functional response and compare the outcomes of our model with a deterministic counterpart considered by Schenk and Bacher [2002. Functional response of a generalist insect predator to one of its prey species in the field. Journal of Animal Ecology 71 (3), 524-531], who observed the depletion of Cassida rubiginosa due to its exclusive predator, Polistes dominulus. The predation was found to be Holling type III, reflecting the ability of the predator to regulate its prey. Our approach corroborates this result, but suggests that the prey depletion census should have been performed more often, and that predation features were significantly different between the two years for which data are available.     

Mutation-selection equilibrium in games with multiple strategies

In evolutionary games the fitness of individuals is not constant but depends on the relative abundance of the various strategies in the population. Here we study general games among n strategies in populations of large but finite size. We explore stochastic evolutionary dynamics under weak selection, but for any mutation rate. We analyze the frequency dependent Moran process in well-mixed populations, but almost identical results are found for the Wright-Fisher and Pairwise Comparison processes. Surprisingly simple conditions specify whether a strategy is more abundant on average than 1/n, or than another strategy, in the mutation-selection equilibrium. We find one condition that holds for low mutation rate and another condition that holds for high mutation rate. A linear combination of these two conditions holds for any mutation rate. Our results allow a complete characterization of n×n games in the limit of weak selection.     

Genetic model for longitudinal studies of aging, health, and longevity and its potential application to incomplete data

Many longitudinal studies of aging collect genetic information only for a sub-sample of participants of the study. These data also do not include recent findings, new ideas and methodological concepts developed by distinct groups of researchers. The formal statistical analyses of genetic data ignore this additional information and therefore cannot utilize the entire research potential of the data. In this paper, we present a stochastic model for studying such longitudinal data in joint analyses of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. The model incorporates several major concepts of aging known to date and usually studied independently. These include age-specific physiological norms, allostasis and allostatic load, stochasticity, and decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity with age. The approach allows for studying all these concepts in their mutual connection, even if respective mechanisms are not directly measured in data (which is typical for longitudinal data available to date). The model takes into account dependence of longitudinal indices and hazard rates on genetic markers and permits evaluation of all these characteristics for carriers of different alleles (genotypes) to address questions concerning genetic influence on aging-related characteristics. The method is based on extracting genetic information from the entire sample of longitudinal data consisting of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. Thus it results in a substantial increase in the accuracy of statistical estimates of genetic parameters compared to methods that use only information from a genetic sub-sample. Such an increase is achieved without collecting additional genetic data. Simulation studies illustrate the increase in the accuracy in different scenarios for datasets structurally similar to the Framingham Heart Study. Possible applications of the model and its further generalizations are discussed.