Demography, range use, and behavior in black lemurs (Eulemur macaco macaco) at Ampasikely, northwest Madagascar

We studied a black lemur population over a 2-year period (1992-1993) and 8 years later (2000) in a 50-ha secondary forest in northwest Madagascar. All of the animals were marked to investigate population dynamics and seasonal variation in ranging and behavior, and new data on black lemurs were obtained. Our data on demographic characteristics were expanded to include other forest sites and contrasted with those collected in other Eulemur macaco macaco field studies, in relation to human activity and the presence of introduced and cultivated plant species. Density is affected by deforestation and hunting. Group size and home range depend on the composition of the forest and probably food patches. Sex ratio at birth varies according to the number of females per group, a result that fits the local resource competition model. Groups are multimale-multifemale, and adult females form the core of the groups. Reproductive parameters indicate sharply defined seasonal breeding, a high female reproductive rate, and birth synchrony. Changes in group composition reveal male and female juvenile dispersal, male transfer between groups at the time of mating, and adult female transfer and group fission when groups exceed a critical size. At mating and birth, intergroup agonistic encounters occurred at home-range boundaries, and larger groups were dominant over smaller groups. Patterns of intragroup interactions suggest that males compete for access to groups of females during the mating season, and that females may compete for food resources during the birth season. Our study also reports female social dominance and lack of sexual weight dimorphism in this species.     

Inferring the effects of demography and selection on Drosophila melanogaster populations from a chromosome-wide scan of DNA variation

Identifying regions of the Drosophila melanogaster genome that have been recent targets of positive Darwinian selection will provide evidence for adaptations that have helped this species to colonize temperate habitats. We have begun a search for such genomic regions by analyzing multiple loci (about 250) dispersed across the X chromosome in a putatively ancestral population from East Africa and a derived European population. For both populations we found evidence for past changes in population size. We estimated that a major bottleneck associated with the colonization of Europe occurred about 3,500-16,000 years ago. We also found that while this bottleneck can account for most of the reduction in variation observed in the European sample, there is a deficit of polymorphism in some genomic regions that cannot be explained by demography alone.     

Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.     

Viability of the Endangered Little Bustard <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetrax tetrax</Emphasis> Population of Western France

Stochastic computer simulations are used to evaluate the sensitivity of Little bustard population parameters, estimating the survival probabilities of the seven endangered Little bustard populations of central-western France for which conservation actions are currentlybeing or have been implemented. Different scenarios of parameter compensation for those nuclei to establish parameter levels assuring population viability are discussed. Adult survival, productivity per female, initial population size and carrying capacity were the most sensitive parameters in a hypothetical, isolated population. Juvenile survival also affected population survival, although its sensitivity was lower. Sex ratio did not have a linear effect on population survival, but probability of extinction increased for extreme values. Productivity per female and initial population size, varied strongly among the populations studied, determining their average time of extinction and growth rate. When a metapopulation scenario was simulated, the survival probabilities of each population and the metapopulations stayed close to 1.0 if no mortality was associated to migration. When mortality during migration was included in the simulations, the metapopulation's probability of survival significantly decreased under 90%. This approach may help managers to correctly address conservation measures and design effective strategies, which should be directed mainly to improve productivity, enhance female survival, and minimise mortality during migration (e.g. promoting insect-rich nesting substrates, avoiding female killing and nest destruction at harvesting, reducing the risk of collision with powerlines, or controlling poaching).     

To what extent does living in a group mean living with kin?

Chimpanzees live in large groups featuring remarkable levels of gregariousness and cooperation among the males. Because males stay in their natal communities their entire lives and are hence expected to be living with male relatives, cooperation is therefore assumed to occur within one large 'family' group. However, we found that the average relatedness among males within several chimpanzee groups as determined by microsatellite analysis is in fact rather low, and only rarely significantly higher than average relatedness of females in the groups or of males compared across groups. To explain these findings, mathematical predictions for average relatedness according to group size, reproductive skew and sex bias in dispersal were derived. The results show that high average relatedness among the philopatric sex is only expected in very small groups, which is confirmed by a comparison with published data. Our study therefore suggests that interactions among larger number of individuals may not be primarily driven by kin relationships.     

Bayesian inference for stochastic kinetic models using a diffusion approximation

This article is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of stochastic rate constants in the context of dynamic models of intracellular processes. The underlying discrete stochastic kinetic model is replaced by a diffusion approximation (or stochastic differential equation approach) where a white noise term models stochastic behavior and the model is identified using equispaced time course data. The estimation framework involves the introduction of m- 1 latent data points between every pair of observations. MCMC methods are then used to sample the posterior distribution of the latent process and the model parameters. The methodology is applied to the estimation of parameters in a prokaryotic autoregulatory gene network.