我国林火发生预测模型研究进展

通过文献回顾,总结了国内林火发生预测模型的研究现状,并从林火发生驱动因子、林火发生概率预测模型、林火发生频次预测模型和模型检验方法等方面进行归纳分析。得出以下结论: 1)气象、地形、植被、可燃物、人类活动等因素是影响林火发生及模型预测精度的主要驱动因子;2)林火发生概率模型中,地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归模型考虑了变量之间的空间相关性,Gompit回归模型适宜非对称结构的林火数据,随机森林模型不需要多重共线性检验,在避免过度拟合的同时提高了预测精度,是林火发生概率预测模型的优选方法之一;3)林火发生频次模型中,负二项回归模型更适合对过度离散数据进行模拟,零膨胀模型和栅栏模型可以处理林火数据中包含大量零值的问题;4)ROC检验、AIC检验、似然比检验和Wald检验方法是林火概率和频次模型的常用检验方法。林火发生预测模型研究仍是我国当前林火管理工作的重点,预测模型的选择需要依据不同地区林火数据特点。此外,构建林火预测模型时需要考虑更多的影响因素,以提高模型预测精度;未来,需要进一步探索其他数学模型在林火发生预测中的应用,不断提高林火发生预测模型的准确度。     

New Caledonian crows plan for specific future tool use

The ability to plan for future events is one of the defining features of human intelligence. Whether non-human animals can plan for specific future situations remains contentious: despite a sustained research effort over the last two decades, there is still no consensus on this question. Here, we show that New Caledonian crows can use tools to plan for specific future events. Crows learned a temporal sequence where they were (a) shown a baited apparatus, (b) 5 min later given a choice of five objects and (c) 10 min later given access to the apparatus. At test, these crows were presented with one of two tool–apparatus combinations. For each combination, the crows chose the right tool for the right future task, while ignoring previously useful tools and a low-value food item. This study establishes that planning for specific future tool use can evolve via convergent evolution, given that corvids and humans shared a common ancestor over 300 million years ago, and offers a route to mapping the planning capacities of animals.     

妇科门诊患者阴道分泌物检测及支原体感染情况和耐药性

目的分析妇科门诊患者阴道分泌物及支原体感染和耐药性情况。方法选取我院2017年7月至2018年7月于妇科门诊就诊的1 200例患者为研究对象,收集患者阴道分泌物并检测支原体感染情况及其耐药性。结果 1 200例患者中患滴虫性阴道炎者13例(1.08%),霉菌性阴道炎139例(11.58%),细菌性阴道病97例(8.08%)。阴道清洁度Ⅲ～Ⅳ度的患者滴虫性阴道炎、霉菌性阴道炎、细菌性阴道病的发生率显著高于清洁度Ⅰ～Ⅱ度的患者(均P0.05)。不同年龄段患者滴虫性阴道炎、霉菌性阴道炎和细菌性阴道病的发生率差异无统计学意义(均P0.05)。25岁的患者解脲支原体(Un)感染率最高(58.10%),35～44岁患者人型支原体(Mh)感染率最高(5.09%),25岁患者Un合并Mh感染率最高(21.91%)。支原体总敏感率较高的抗生素为美满霉素(95.86%)、强力霉素(95.15%)和交沙霉素(97.05%),敏感率较低的为甲砜霉素(19.15%),克林霉素(14.66%)和司帕沙星(27.77%)。结论阴道清洁度与阴道炎的发生具有相关性。患者阴道分泌物中支原体的检测及药敏试验可为临床治疗提供参考依据。     

休斯敦共识会议:关于美国幽门螺杆菌感染的检测

虽然,美国已有关于幽门螺杆菌(Helicobacter pylori,H.pylori)检测和治疗的指南,但对患者进行治疗前后H.pylori检测的建议通常没有得到遵循。来自美国不同地区研究成人和儿童H.pylori感染处理的11名专家参加了"休斯敦共识会议",并在会议中讨论诊断H.pylori感染的关键因素:确定目标人群进行H.pylori检测;抗生素药物敏感性对检测和治疗的影响;确认H.pylori感染和确认根除治疗结果的合适方法。专家被分为多组,采用改良的Delphi小组讨论法来评定需行H.pylori检测的目标人群,抗生素药物敏感性检测方法和治疗方法、根除治疗后的结果确认及相关检测方法。证据质量和建议强度均采用GRADE系统进行评估。各工作小组的结果将提交给所有小组成员进行最后的共识表决。在专家共识会议之后,这些结论将提交给一个独立的胃肠病学专家小组进行验证,并对会议中提出的29项声明进行认同程度评估。最后的建议是基于现有最佳证据提出,并提供带参考文献的共识声明,以便在全美各地的医疗保健体系中实施。     

2011-2017年大连市输入性卵形疟原虫感染病例的实验室诊断

目的分析大连市2011-2017年7例输入性卵形疟原虫感染病例的病原、抗原及核酸检测结果,以提高卵形疟原虫诊断的准确率和效率。方法收集7例疑似疟疾患者的血样,对血样进行血涂片镜检、快速疟疾诊断试纸条检测(RDT)及荧光定量PCR检测。结果血涂片镜检结果显示7例患者均感染卵形疟原虫。RDT检测结果显示2例阴性,另外5例为泛疟原虫抗原阳性。荧光定量PCR结果显示7例患者均检出疟原虫属和卵形疟原虫核酸。结论综合镜检、RDT及荧光定量PCR检测结果确定该7例患者均为卵形疟原虫感染。     

正交设计优化微波辅助测定延胡索叶总生物碱含量

通过微波辅助提取的方式,以延胡索叶总生物碱含量为考察指标,通过单因素试验和正交试验对总生物碱提取方法进行优化。重点考察了微波提取温度、时间、料液比、提取缓冲液pH值等因素对延胡索叶总生物碱得率的影响。各因素对延胡索叶总生物碱提取量的影响大小依次为:提取缓冲液pH值料液比提取温度。其最佳的提取方法为:提取缓冲液pH值为1. 0,料液比1∶100,提取温度60℃,提取时间20 min。在此条件下,叶总生物碱含量为25. 910 mg/g。利用微波辅助提取延胡索叶中总生物碱,不仅耗时短,效率高,而且操作简单、稳定,为延胡索叶总生物碱含量测定提供一定的技术支持。     

Chlorophyll a fluorescence kinetics of mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) grown under artificial continuous light

Continuous light can be used as a tool to understand the diurnal rhythm of plants and it can also be used to increase the plant production. In the present research, we aimed to investigate the photosynthetic performance of V. radiata under continuous light as compared with the plants grown under normal light duration. Chlorophyll a fluorescence transient (OJIP test) technique was used to understand the effect on various stages of photosynthesis and their consequences under continuous light condition. Various Chl a Fluorescence kinetic parameters such as Specific energy fluxes (per Q_A-reducing PSII reaction center (RC)) (ABS /RC; TR₀/RC; ET₀/RC; DI₀/RC), phenomenological fluxes, leaf model, (ABS/CSm; TR/CSm; ETo/CSm), Quantum yields and efficiencies (φPo; φEo; Ψo) and Performance index (PI_abs) was extracted and analysed in our investigation. Conclusively, our study has revealed that continuous light alters the photosynthetic performance of V. radiata at a different point but also improve plant productivity.     

Stool DNA test targeting methylated syndecan-2 (SDC2) as a noninvasive screening method for colorectal cancer

Despite the steadily increasing worldwide incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC), an effective noninvasive approach for early detection of CRC is still under investigation. The guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) have gained popularity as noninvasive CRC screening tests owing to their convenience and relatively low costs. However, the FOBT and FIT have limited sensitivity and specificity. To develop a noninvasive tool for the detection of CRC, we investigated the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of a stool DNA test targeting methylated syndecan-2 (SDC2), which is frequently methylated in patients with CRC. The present study enrolled 62 patients diagnosed as having stage 0-IV CRC and 76 healthy participants between July 2018 and June 2019 from two institutions. Approximately 4.5 g of stool sample was collected from each participant for detection of human methylated SDC2 gene. In total, 48 of 62 (77.4%) patients with CRC showed positive results, whereas 67 out of 76 (88.2%) healthy participants showed negative results. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve constructed was 0.872 for discrimination between patients with CRC and healthy individuals. The present study highlights the potential of the fecal methylated SDC2 test as a noninvasive detection method for CRC screening with a relatively favorable sensitivity of 77.4%, a specificity of 88.2% and a positive predictive value of 84.2% compared with other available fecal tests. Further multicenter clinical trials comprising subjects of varied ethnicities are required to validate this test for the mass screening of patients with CRC.     

Assessment of risk factors for postoperative cognitive dysfunction after coronary artery bypass surgery: a single-center retrospective cohort study

Aim: To find out risk factors for postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and to provide basis for clinical prevention of POCD. A total of 88 patients who underwent CABG were surveyed with Telephone Questionnaire (TICS-M) for their cognitive impairment after 3, 7, 21, 90, 180 days post-surgery. The occurrence of POCD was diagnosed by Neuropsychological Battery which included Vocabular Learning Test (VLT), Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), Trail Making Test (TMT) and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). The preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative risk factors were assessed by the χ² or t test. Multivariate analysis was used to study the correlation between the risk factors and the occurrence of POCD. Age, aortic plaque, carotid artery stenosis, cerebrovascular disease, anesthesia time, the rate of decline in intraoperative hemoglobin concentration (ΔHb) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score on postoperative day 2 had statistically significant (P<0.05) influence on the occurrence of POCD. Aortic plaque, carotid artery stenosis, anesthesia time and SIRS score (odds ratio (OR) value > 1, P<0.05) are the risk factors for POCD. The incidence of day-21 and -180 POCD was approximately 26.1 and 22.7%, respectively.