Demography, range use, and behavior in black lemurs (Eulemur macaco macaco) at Ampasikely, northwest Madagascar

We studied a black lemur population over a 2-year period (1992-1993) and 8 years later (2000) in a 50-ha secondary forest in northwest Madagascar. All of the animals were marked to investigate population dynamics and seasonal variation in ranging and behavior, and new data on black lemurs were obtained. Our data on demographic characteristics were expanded to include other forest sites and contrasted with those collected in other Eulemur macaco macaco field studies, in relation to human activity and the presence of introduced and cultivated plant species. Density is affected by deforestation and hunting. Group size and home range depend on the composition of the forest and probably food patches. Sex ratio at birth varies according to the number of females per group, a result that fits the local resource competition model. Groups are multimale-multifemale, and adult females form the core of the groups. Reproductive parameters indicate sharply defined seasonal breeding, a high female reproductive rate, and birth synchrony. Changes in group composition reveal male and female juvenile dispersal, male transfer between groups at the time of mating, and adult female transfer and group fission when groups exceed a critical size. At mating and birth, intergroup agonistic encounters occurred at home-range boundaries, and larger groups were dominant over smaller groups. Patterns of intragroup interactions suggest that males compete for access to groups of females during the mating season, and that females may compete for food resources during the birth season. Our study also reports female social dominance and lack of sexual weight dimorphism in this species.     

Inferring the effects of demography and selection on Drosophila melanogaster populations from a chromosome-wide scan of DNA variation

Identifying regions of the Drosophila melanogaster genome that have been recent targets of positive Darwinian selection will provide evidence for adaptations that have helped this species to colonize temperate habitats. We have begun a search for such genomic regions by analyzing multiple loci (about 250) dispersed across the X chromosome in a putatively ancestral population from East Africa and a derived European population. For both populations we found evidence for past changes in population size. We estimated that a major bottleneck associated with the colonization of Europe occurred about 3,500-16,000 years ago. We also found that while this bottleneck can account for most of the reduction in variation observed in the European sample, there is a deficit of polymorphism in some genomic regions that cannot be explained by demography alone.     

To what extent does living in a group mean living with kin?

Chimpanzees live in large groups featuring remarkable levels of gregariousness and cooperation among the males. Because males stay in their natal communities their entire lives and are hence expected to be living with male relatives, cooperation is therefore assumed to occur within one large 'family' group. However, we found that the average relatedness among males within several chimpanzee groups as determined by microsatellite analysis is in fact rather low, and only rarely significantly higher than average relatedness of females in the groups or of males compared across groups. To explain these findings, mathematical predictions for average relatedness according to group size, reproductive skew and sex bias in dispersal were derived. The results show that high average relatedness among the philopatric sex is only expected in very small groups, which is confirmed by a comparison with published data. Our study therefore suggests that interactions among larger number of individuals may not be primarily driven by kin relationships.     

Realistic population dynamics in epidemiological models: the impact of population decline on the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases. Measles in Italy as an example

Most contributions in the field of mathematical modelling of childhood infectious diseases transmission dynamics have focused on stationary or exponentially growing populations. In this paper an epidemiological model with realistic demography is used to investigate the impact of the non-equilibrium conditions typical of the transition to sustained below replacement fertility (BRF) recently observed in a number of western countries, upon the transmission dynamics of measles. The results depend on the manner we model the relation between the (changing) age distribution of the population and contacts. Under some circumstances the transitional ageing phase typical of BRF populations might complexly interact with epidemiological variables leading to (i) a substantial reduction in the amount of vaccination effort required for eliminating the disease; (ii) a significant magnification of the perverse impact of vaccination in terms of the burden of severe age related morbidity.     

Can life-history traits predict the response of forb populations to changes in climate variability?

1.  Climate change will cause changes in average temperature and precipitation as well as increased fluctuations around the mean, yet few studies have considered the impacts of altered climate variability on plant populations. We tested whether life-history traits (expected life span, generation time and seed size) can predict plant responses to increased environmental variability across similar plant species sharing the same habitat.
2.  We combined long-term demographic data on 10 prairie forb species with stochastic demography techniques to estimate the effects of potential changes in matrix element means and variances on the long-term stochastic population growth rate.
3.  For all 10 species, recruitment had higher contribution and elasticity values than survival, meaning that climate change is more likely to influence population growth through effects on recruitment than on survival for these relatively short-lived forbs. Species with longer generation times had lower elasticities to increases in matrix element variability.
4.   Synthesis. Our analysis of a unique, long-term data set suggests that longer-lived plant species will be less vulnerable to the effects of future increases in climate variability. While this relationship was previously reported for diverse taxa from many locations, our results show that it also applies within a guild of short-lived species from a single community. The generality of the pattern demonstrates the potential for using life-history traits to make predictions about which species may be the most vulnerable to climate change.     

Remarkably low mtDNA control-region diversity and shallow population structure in Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus

To investigate the genetic diversity and describe the population structure in Gadus macrocephalus, a 452 base pair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region was analysed in 259 individuals. The results showed remarkably low nucleotide diversity and a lack of genealogical structure. Small but significant genetic differentiations, however, were detected among north-western Pacific populations, but no large-scale regional differences were detected. These results indicate that populations of G. macrocephalus in the north-western Pacific are genetically subdivided and represent evolutionary lineages that should be managed individually.     

Comparison of the physiology, morphology, and leaf demography of tropical saplings with different crown shapes

Branch architecture, leaf photosynthetic traits, and leaf demography were investigated in saplings of two woody species, Homolanthus caloneurus and Macaranga rostulata, co-occurring in the understory of a tropical mountain forest. M. rostulata saplings have cylindrical crowns, whereas H. caloneurus saplings have flat crowns. Saplings of the two species were found not to differ in area-based photosynthetic traits and in average light conditions in the understory of the studied site, but they do differ in internode length, leaf emergence rate, leaf lifespan, and total leaf area. Displayed leaf area of H. caloneurus saplings, which have the more rapid leaf emergence, was smaller than that of M. rostulata saplings, which have a longer leaf lifespan and larger total leaf area, although M. rostulata saplings showed a higher degree of leaf overlap. Short leaf lifespan and consequent small total leaf area would be linked to leaf overlap avoidance in the densely packed flat H. caloneurus crown. In contrast, M. rostulata saplings maintained a large total leaf area by producing leaves with a long leaf lifespan. In these understory saplings with a different crown architecture, we observed two contrasting adaptation strategies to shade which are achieved by adjusting a suite of morphological and leaf demographic characters. Each understory species has a suite of morphological traits and leaf demography specific to its architecture, thus attaining leaf overlap avoidance or large total leaf area.     

Population Dynamics and Potential for Biological Control of an Exotic Invasive Shrub in Hawaiian Rainforests

Introduction of biological control agents to reduce the abundance of exotic invasive plant species is often considered necessary but risky. I used matrix projection models to investigate the current population dynamics of Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae), an invasive shrub, in two rainforest stands on the island of Hawaii and to predict the efficacy of hypothetical biological control agents in reducing population growth rates. Stage-structured matrix models were parameterized with field data collected over 3 years from 2906 C. hirta plants in a recently invaded forest with an open overstory (Laupahoehoe) and 600 plants in a less recently invaded forest with a closed canopy (Waiakea). Asymptotic population growth rates (λ) for both populations in all years were greater than one, demonstrating that both populations were growing. Composite elasticities were high for the seedling life-history stage and fecundity, and near-term demographic elasticities suggested that changes in seedling survival would have the largest effect on population size in the short term. However, simulations showed that almost 100% of seedlings or new recruits produced per reproductive adult would have to be destroyed to cause populations to go locally extinct under current environmental conditions. Herbivores or pathogens that decrease survival across all vegetative stages by 12% at Waiakea and 64% at Laupahoehoe were projected to cause the populations to decline. Thus, biocontrol agents that reduce survival of multiple life-history stages rather than seed production should be pursued to control C. hirta in Hawaiian rainforests.     

Comparative Population Dynamics of an Invading Species in its Native and Novel Ranges

Although the ecology of many exotic invaders has been intensively examined in the novel range, few studies have comparatively explored how population dynamics differ in native and novel parts of an invading plants’ range. The population dynamics of mile-a-minute weed, Polygonum perfoliatum L., was explored in both the native (Japan) and novel (northeastern USA) portions of its range and evaluated using periodic matrix models. Projected per capita population growth rate (λ) varied within and between native and novel range populations. Surprisingly, five of the six populations in the novel range were projected to fail to replace themselves (λ<1) while only two of the four native range populations were projected to decline, although these projections had wider confidence intervals than in the novel habitat. While changes in germination, survivorship, fecundity and seed banking would have equivalent effects on population growth in the invasive habitat, small increases in plant survivorship would greatly increase λ in native populations. The differences between native and novel population growth rates were driven by lower adult survival in the native range caused by annual flooding and higher fecundity. Simulation analyses indicated that a 50% reduction in plant survival would be required to control growing populations in the novel range. Further comparative studies of other invading species in both their native and novel ranges are needed to examine whether the high per capita population growth and strong regulatory effects of adult survival in the native habitat are generally predictive of invasive behavior in novel habitats. Sachiko Araki: (Deceased)