Design considerations for two-stage enrichment clinical trials

When there is a predictive biomarker, enrichment can focus the clinical trial on a benefiting subpopulation. We describe a two-stage enrichment design, in which the first stage is designed to efficiently estimate a threshold and the second stage is a “phase III-like” trial on the enriched population. The goal of this paper is to explore design issues: sample size in Stages 1 and 2, and re-estimation of the Stage 2 sample size following Stage 1. By treating these as separate trials, we can gain insight into how the predictive nature of the biomarker specifically impacts the sample size. We also show that failure to adequately estimate the threshold can have disastrous consequences in the second stage. While any bivariate model could be used, we assume a continuous outcome and continuous biomarker, described by a bivariate normal model. The correlation coefficient between the outcome and biomarker is the key to understanding the behavior of the design, both for predictive and prognostic biomarkers. Through a series of simulations we illustrate the impact of model misspecification, consequences of poor threshold estimation, and requisite sample sizes that depend on the predictive nature of the biomarker. Such insight should be helpful in understanding and designing enrichment trials.     

矩阵的加号逆理论在参数估计中的应用

本文从矩阵的加号逆理论出发,根据求矛盾线性方程组最佳逼近解的方法,建立起一种新的参数估计方法,同时给出了显著性检验方法,这种方法更简单更精确．     

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING MASS OF LARGE PINNIPEDS

Fifty-two male elephant seals were weighed and photographed at Año Nuevo State Reserve, California, to establish a predictive relationship between photographically measured morphological variables (length, side area, and girth area) and body mass. Regression of mass on these variables revealed that side area, roughly equivalent to a longitudinal cross-section, was the most useful single variable for predicting mass, and that adding the other two variables to side area slightly improved the accuracy of the photogrammetric technique. Curvilinear regressions based on a power model provided the best predictive relationships. This technique may prove useful for estimating body mass of other pinnipeds.     

中国野生动物调查存在的问题与改进建议

一百余年前,人类就开始了相对系统的野生动物调查。目前已经建立了成熟的方法体系,并制定了相应的调查规范。最近几十年来,我国科研人员进行了大量的野生动物调查。但是,当前我国的野外调查规范还不够细致,调查者在调查时缺乏必要的约束,导致调查数据不规范、不可靠,很多重要信息缺失。突出问题有：样线信息不全,只有起点和终点的经纬度,没有自动记录的详细样线信息（如每秒记录一次的连续点位信息,含经纬度和时间）;动物位点信息缺乏可信度指标（如距观测者的距离）;调查时间不合理;调查地点的空间取样不均衡;记录的标准化不够（如每个观测点的观测时长不确定）等等。对此,我们参考国际通用的调查规范,提出了一些简单易行的调查要点,以便提高野外调查数据的质量。另外,我们提倡野外记录的无纸化,充分利用现有的手机应用软件（APP）和模型工具提高野外记录以及后期数据处理的效率。最后,我们提议建立固定的中国生物多样性监测样线体系,以便消除每年调查时空间取样的不确定性,更好地量化野生动物的时间动态,为野生动物的保护和管理提供依据。     

升流厌氧污泥层反应器动力学模型

用碘离子作示踪剂,采用矩形脉冲示踪法测定升流厌氧污泥层(UASB)反应器的流动分布。建立了申级返混加沟流模型。模型简单,能够反映反应器流动分布,具有较强的拟合能力和良好的适用性。运用流动模型和Monod方程,建立了UASB反应器稳态模型,并对模型参数进行了估计。通过灵敏度分析,进水基质浓度S。,废水流量Q,最大比基质降解速率,μmax 对出水基质浓度有较大影响。在稳态模型的基础上又建立了UASB反应器动态模态,利用此模型,对出水基质浓度序列Se,和产气量序列Qg进行计算预测,平均偏差分别5．40％和7．46％,标准偏差分别为7．02％和9．66％。     

Advancing the use of morphometric data for estimating and managing common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) mass

Knowledge of a dolphin's body mass is central to establishing body condition, comparing across individuals, and designing successful management programs. In the present study, sex‐specific prediction equations for estimating body mass were generated from morphometrics (i.e., length and girth) and ages of bottlenose dolphins residing under professionally managed care. Measurements of wild dolphins in Sarasota Bay, Florida, were used to generate sex‐specific body mass reference ranges. Gompertz growth models were fitted to length measurements and age to compare growth across populations. From the regression analyses, the body mass of managed females (R² = 0.937), managed males (R² = 0.953), wild females (R² = 0.979), and wild males (R² = 0.972) were predicted with high levels of accuracy. Managed adults had similar or longer asymptotic lengths compared to their wild conspecifics. To apply this information, ZooMorphTrak, a mobile software application, was developed to provide a new resource for management. The “Approximate” feature was designed to approximate body mass based on user inputs of individual morphometrics. The “Management” feature compared a managed dolphin's known body mass with respect to body mass reference ranges generated from wild dolphins. ZooMorphTrak, developed by the Chicago Zoological Society, is available for download at http://itunes.apple.com .