Parameter estimation techniques for interaction and redistribution models: a predator-prey example

Summary The use of parameter estimation techniques for partial differential equations is illustrated using a predatorprey model. Whereas ecologists have often estimated parameters in models, they have not previously been able to do so for models that describe interactions in heterogeneous environments. The techniques we describe for partial differential equations will be generally useful for models of interacting species in spatially complex environments and for models that include the movement of organisms. We demonstrate our methods using field data from a ladybird beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and aphid (Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum) interaction. Our parameter estimation algorithms can be employed to identify models that explain better than 80% of the observed variance in aphid and ladybird densities. Such parameter estimation techniques can bridge the gap between detail-rich experimental studies and abstract mathematical models. By relating the particular bestfit models identified from our experimental data to other information on Coccinella behavior, we conclude that a term describing local taxis of ladybirds towards prey (aphids in this case) is needed in the model.     

Are galling insects better protected against parasitoids than exposed feeders?: a test using tenthredinid sawflies

ABSTRACT.

• 1 Data mostly from the published literature were used to assess the effect of galling on the number of parasitoid species per host species in the phylogeny of nematine sawflies from free external feeders (colonial and solitary) to leaf gallers and shoot gallers.
• 2 The strongest effects of galling were the total elimination of the species-rich cocoon-attacking guild of parasitoids, and eonymphal parasitoids, from the parasitoid community on shoot gallers, all of which are in the genus Euura.
• 3 All tachinid larval parasitoids were also eliminated by the galling habit.
• 4 The cumulative effects of these exclusions resulted in a decline in mean number of parasitoid species per host species from almost sixteen species on external colonial feeders to 4.0 species on shoot gallers.
• 5 General patterns in per cent parasitism by non-tachinid and tachinid larval parasitoids, eonymphal and cocoon parasitoids, on exposed feeders to shoot gallers, showed declines in non-tachinid attack and elimination of tachinid, eonymphal and cocoon parasitoids. But leaf gallers tended to be attacked more than exposed feeders by non-tachinid larval parasitoids.
• 6 The galling habit had a long-term impact by reducing the number of parasitoid species attacking nematine sawfly gallers and per cent mortality inflicted, so that natural enemies may have been important as a selective factor in the evolution of galling nematine sawflies.

     

Estimating the rate of photorespiration in leaves

The influence of Li⁺ on the circumnutations of hypocotyls of Helianthus annuus L . cv. Californicus was investigated. LiCl at concentration levels from 0 to 40 m M (lethal) was added to intact hypocotyls grown in liquid nutrient medium. The Li⁺ concentration in the hypocotyls was measured by flame photometry. The growth of the hypocotyls was not affected by the LiCl.
Amplitude and frequency of the circumnutations were determined by correlation analysis. The oscillatory pattern of the movements became less regular at concentrations above 10 m M LiCl. The amplitude of the movements was reduced for concentrations above 7 m M LiCl. The frequency of the movements was reduced when LiCl was increased from 0 to 10 m M . Above 10 m M LiCl the frequency of the circumnutations was higher than for control plants. The results showed that circumnutations of sunflower hypocotyls can be added to the group of oscillators in biological organisms that are affected by Li⁺.     

Stature variation in the British American Colonies: French and Indian War records, 1755-1763

Personnel records kept by military units of American colonials during the French and Indian War (1755-1763) are analyzed for relationships between environmental factors and stature. A robust American economy and direct access to high-quality food were apparently critical to tallness of this white American male sample. American-born men were taller at all ages than those who had migrated from Europe. January temperatures, rural versus urban birth, and ethnicity also showed stature relationships within the American-born group; thermal effects were by far the strongest of the non-nutritional factors.     

Coming to America: Acclimation in macaque body structures and Bergmann’s rule

I analyzed somatometric measurements from subsets of the Texas and Oregon transplanted troops of Japanese macaques(Macaca fuscata) to reveal secular changes in body size and shape. Body weights of the Texas population (N = 59) are lower than those of the Oregon population(N = 49) and the founding population from Arashiyama. The adult weights of the Oregon population are significantly higher than the founding population from Mihara. There are significant differences in adult circumferential measures and in skinfolds, which are correlated with the increased weight of the Oregon macaques. The adult Texas macaques have longer limb segments in comparison with the adult Oregon troop members, while the latter have significantly longer heads and trunks. Examination of the developing morphological trends through regression analyses on the complete sample suggests distinctive growth patterns for each population. Members of the Texas population start with smaller initial measurements but hold a steeper growth pattern for limb segments, while the Oregon macaques start larger in most measures and show lower growth rates. I argue that these differences in both somatometry and growth patterns are related to the differing climatic conditions under which the translocated macaques have lived. This set of analyses supports the basic arguments for Bergmann’s rule and Allen’s rule.     

Prairie plant guilds: a multivariate analysis of prairie species based on ecological and morphological traits

An ecomorphological analysis of the tallgrass prairie of central North America divided representative species of the native grassland flora into eight guilds or groups of species with similar life-form, phenology, and ecology. The guilds, segregated by multivariate analysis, are: (1) warm-season graminoids with Kranz anatomy and the Hatch-Slack photosynthetic pathway (C4 grasses); (2) cool-season graminoids without Kranz anatomy, but with the common Calvin or C3 photosynthetic pathway (C3 grasses and sedges); (3) annuals and biennial forbs; (4) ephemeral spring forbs; (5) spring forbs; (6) summer/fall forbs; (7) legumes; and (8) woody shrubs. The study was based on 158 plant species indigenous to three upland prairie sites in northeastern Kansas. Each species was scored for 32 traits which fall into five broad categories: plant habit, leaf characteristics, stem structures, root structures, and reproductive traits, including phenology. A multivariate, detrended correspondence analysis sorted the 158 species into the eight principal groups or guilds. These groups were further supported by a cluster analysis and discriminant function analysis of the same data set. The discriminant function analysis determined that 94.3% of the species were correctly classified in their respective guilds, and that the guilds were statistically different. Results indicate that guild analysis offers a basis for detailed classification of grassland vegetation that is more ecologically focused than species composition, as the myriad of species (about 1,000 prairie species on the central plains of North America) vary in presence, cover, and importance with their individualistic distribution.Abbreviations C3= C3 photosynthesis - C4= C4 photosynthesis - LSD= least significant difference     

A chemosystematic survey of flavonoids in the Brassicinae: Diplotaxis

As a result of the surveying of 13 taxa of the genus Diplotaxis, it was found that their leaf flavonoids are flavonol glycosides derived from either kaempferol, quercetin and isorhamnetin. Multivariate analysis of these flavonoid data of taxa suggest a close chemotaxonomic affinity. On the basis of their chemical composition the taxa relationships are discussed. The allopolyploid origin of D. muralis with D. tenuifolia and D. viminea as parentals is strongly supported by chemical evidence.     

Species composition of dabbling duck assemblages: ecomorphological patterns compared with null models

Ecomorphological patterns of breeding dabbling duck (Anas spp.) assemblages were studied in six regions in northern Europe. Observed spacings among species in terms of bill lamellar density and body length were compared with expected spacings based on null models incorporating different levels of constraints (regional species pools, species relative abundances, lake size and habitat requirements of species). Deviations of observed spacings from expected ones were compared with prey abundance and prey size diversity in the lakes. Observed spacings in terms of body length, but not in terms of bill lamellar density, were greater than expected on the basis of null models. The most abundant species were generally relatively more different than less abundant species in terms of body length but not in terms of bill lamellar density. Deviations between observed and expected spacings in terms of body length were more like those predicted by the competition hypothesis in lakes with low food abundance than in lakes with high food abundance. Patterns in bill lamellar spacings were not related to food abundance nor to food size diversity. In general, patterns in body length spacings were consistent with the competition hypothesis whether the null model used in comparisons was constrained or not.     

Global mangrove root production,its controls and roles in the blue carbon budget of mangroves

Mangroves are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems worldwide. Most of the carbon in mangroves is found belowground, and root production might be an important control of carbon accumulation, but has been rarely quantified and understood at the global scale. Here, we determined the global mangrove root production rate and its controls using a systematic review and a recently formalised, spatially explicit mangrove typology framework based on geomorphological settings. We found that global mangrove root production averaged ~770 ± 202 g of dry biomass m⁻² year⁻¹ globally, which is much higher than previously reported and close to the root production of the most productive tropical forests. Geomorphological settings exerted marked control over root production together with air temperature and precipitation (r² ≈ 30%, p < .001). Our review shows that individual global changes (e.g. warming, eutrophication, drought) have antagonist effects on root production, but they have rarely been studied in combination. Based on this newly established root production rate, root-derived carbon might account for most of the total carbon buried in mangroves, and 19 Tg C lost in mangroves each year (e.g. as CO₂). Inclusion of root production measurements in understudied geomorphological settings (i.e. deltas), regions (Indonesia, South America and Africa) and soil depth (>40 cm), as well as the creation of a mangrove root trait database will push forward our understanding of the global mangrove carbon cycle for now and the future. Overall, this review presents a comprehensive analysis of root production in mangroves, and highlights the central role of root production in the global mangrove carbon budget.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.