Forecasting spatially structured populations: the role of dispersal and scale

We forecasted spatially structured population models with complex dynamics, focusing on the effect of dispersal and spatial scale on the predictive capability of nonlinear forecasting (NLF). Dispersal influences NLF ability by its influence on population dynamics. For simple 2-cell models, when dispersal is small, our ability to predict abundance in subpopulations decreased and then increased with increasing dispersal. Spatial heterogeneity, dispersal manner, and environmental noise did not qualitatively change this result. But results are not clear for complex spatial configurations because of complicated dispersal interactions across subpopulations. Populations undergoing periodic fluctuations could be forecasted perfectly for all deterministic cases that we studied, but less reliably when environmental noise was incorporated. More importantly, for all models that we have examined, NLF was much worse at larger spatial scales as a consequence of the asynchronous dynamics of subpopulations when the dispersal rate was below some critical value. The only difference among models was the critical value of dispersal rate, which varied with growth rate, carrying capacity, mode of dispersal, and spatial configuration. These results were robust even when environmental noise was incorporated. Intermittency, common in the dynamics of spatially structured populations, lowered the predictive capability of NLF. Forecasting population behaviour is of obvious value in resource exploitation and conservation. We suggest that forecasting at local scales holds promise, whereas forecasting abundance at regional scales may yield poor results. Improved understanding of dispersal can enhance the management and conservation of natural resources, and may help us to understand resource-exploitation strategies employed by local indigenous humans.     

BEHAVIOR OF RED-TAILED HAWKS IN A WIND TURBINE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract: Birds flying within windfarms can be killed when they collide with wind turbines. Raptors, especially red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis), are more susceptible to collisions than other birds, which may be attributable to their specific foraging and flight behavior. To more fully understand the problem, and to reduce raptor mortality, it is necessary to acquire more information on habitat use and flight behavior by raptors inhabiting windfarms. Between June 1999 and June 2000, we watched raptors for 346 hours in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, the largest windfarm in North America. We recorded flight behavior in relation to characteristics of the topography such as slope aspect, elevation, and inclination and in relation to various weather variables including wind speed and wind direction. We found that red-tailed hawk behavior and their use of slope aspect differed according to wind speed. Hawks perched more often in weak winds than in strong. Red-tailed hawks were more likely to soar during low wind conditions and kite during strong wind, particularly on hillsides that faced into the wind as opposed to hillsides shielded from the wind. This is likely a result of their use of deflection updrafts for lift during flight. During our study, when winds were strong and from the south-southwest, kiting behavior occurred on south-southwestern facing slopes with inclines of greater than 20% and peak elevations greater than adjacent slopes. Accordingly, mitigation measures to decrease red-tailed hawk fatalities should be directed specifically to these areas and others fitting this general model. Wind farm managers can power down turbines at the top of these hazardous slopes when they pose the greatest danger—when winds are strong and facing perpendicularly to the slope.     

Corticosterone suppresses immune activity in territorial Galápagos marine iguanas during reproduction

Individuals that display elaborate sexually selected characters often show reduced immune function. According to the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis, testosterone (T) is responsible for this result as it drives the development and maintenance of sexual characters and causes immunosuppression. But glucocorticoids also have strong influences on immune function and may also be elevated in reproductively active males. Here, we compared immune activity using the phytohemagglutinin (PHA) skin test in three discrete groups of male marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus): territorials, satellites, and bachelors. Males of these three reproductive phenotypes had indistinguishable T concentrations during the height of the breeding season, but their corticosterone (cort) concentrations, body condition and hematocrit were significantly different. Territorial males, the animals with the most elaborate sexual ornaments and behaviors, had lower immune responses and body condition but higher cort concentrations and hematocrit than satellites or bachelors. To test directly cort's immunosuppressive role, we elevated cort by either restraining animals or additionally injecting cort and compared their PHA swelling response with the response of free-roaming animals. Such experimental elevation of cort significantly decreased immune activity in both restrained and cort-injected animals. Our data show that cort can induce immunosuppression, but they do not support the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis in its narrow sense because T concentrations were not related to immunosuppression.     

Ferns and Melastomataceae as indicators of vascular plant composition in rain forests of Colombian Amazonia

In a case-study from Colombian Amazonia, species information from ferns and Melastomataceae was used to explain the compositional patterns of other vascular plant species in 40 widely distributed 0.1-ha plots. Canonical correspondence analysis was applied to regress vascular plant species composition in the forests against information from these two indicator groups (summarized as axes of principal coordinate analyses), together with that from soils, landscape, and the spatial sampling design. In total, 53,941 individuals of 2480 vascular plant species were recorded. Of these, 17,473 individuals and 132 species were from ferns and Melastomataceae. In 19 well-drained upland (tierra firme) plots 19,622 vascular plant individuals and 1716 species were found, with 3793 plants and 91 species from ferns and Melastomataceae. In both the set of all landscapes and the subset of tierra firme forests the principal PCoA axes of the two indicator groups were highly related to the main patterns of forest species composition. In principle, therefore, ferns and Melastomataceae can be used to detect and forecast changes in the forest composition of the study area. However, evidence was not obtained that ferns and Melastomataceae show more potential to predict the main patterns in species composition of forests than soil, landscape, and spatial variables. The partioning of the total variation in forest composition showed that the correlation of ferns and Melastomataceae with other forest plants was quite independent from that of soil, landscape, and space. Direct effects of ferns and Melastomataceae on other plants might be obtained from experimental studies of between-plant interactions, concentrating on the seedling or juvenile stages of trees and lianas, both above-ground as well as in the rooting environment.     

Masting by Betula-species; applying the resource budget model to north European data sets

Masting, the intermittent production of large crops of flowers by a plant population, is a common feature among trees in boreal and temperate forests. The pollen of many broadleaved trees causes allergic diseases, which are major causes of increasing health-care costs in industrialised countries. As the prevalence and severity of allergic diseases are connected with the concentrations of airborne pollen, an universal model predicting the intensity of the coming flowering would be a valuable tool for pollen information services, and ultimately for allergic people and allergologists. We investigated whether a resource budget model created in Japan explains the fluctuations in the annual pollen sums of Betula-species in north European data sets (10–12 years at 4 sites, 20 years at 10 sites). Using the shorter data sets, the model explained 76–92% of the annual fluctuations at five study sites. Using the 20-year data set, the percentage for southern Finland was much lower, only 48%, compared with the 85% of the 12-year data set. The annual pollen sums have been higher during the 1990s than in the 1980s, which may explain the ineffectiveness of the model, while applied to the 20-year data set. Our results support the resource budget model: the masting of birch species is regulated by weather factors together with the system of resource allocation among years. The model can serve pollen information service. However, only the 10 most recent years should be used to avoid interference from trends in changing vegetation and/or climate.     

Space-irrelevant scaling law for fish school sizes

Universal scaling in the power-law size distribution of pelagic fish schools is established. The power-law exponent of size distributions is extracted through the data collapse. The distribution depends on the school size only through the ratio of the size to the expected size of the schools an arbitrary individual engages in. This expected size is linear in the ratio of the spatial population density of fish to the breakup rate of school. By means of extensive numerical simulations, it is verified that the law is completely independent of the dimension of the space in which the fish move. Besides the scaling analysis on school size distributions, the integrity of schools over extended periods of time is discussed.     

The contribution of small individuals to density-body size relationships: examination of energetic equivalence in reef fishes

A key relationship in ecology is that between density and body size, with the emphasis placed on energetic rules constraining the abundance of larger organisms below that of smaller organisms. Most studies have focused upon the density-body size relationship at the species level. However, energy is gathered at an individual level. We therefore examined this relationship in a coral reef fish assemblage, focusing on individuals. Using a comprehensive data set, with over 14,000 observations we found that the relationship between local density and adult body size differs from the linear relationship predicted by the energetic equivalence rule. However, excluding the smallest size classes, the relationship between body size and individual abundance for intermediate to larger fish did not depart from the predicted –0.75. Unlike plants and intermediate to large reef fishes, the smallest fishes appear to have constraints that may reflect different patterns of resource acquisition.     

Coexistence of mixotrophs, autotrophs, and heterotrophs in planktonic microbial communities

We examine what circumstances allow the coexistence of microorganisms following different nutritional strategies, using a mathematical model. This model incorporates four nutritional types commonly found in planktonic ecosystems: (1) heterotrophic bacteria that consume dissolved organic matter and are prey to some of the other organisms; (2) heterotrophic zooflagellates that depend entirely on bacterial prey; (3) phototrophic algae that depend only on light and inorganic nutrients, and (4) mixotrophs that photosynthesize, take up inorganic nutrients, and consume bacterial prey. Mixotrophs are characterized by a parameter representing proportional mixing of phototrophic and heterotrophic nutritional strategies. Varying this parameter, a range of mixotrophic strategies was examined in hypothetical habitats differing in supplies of light, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved inorganic phosphorous. Mixotrophs expressing a wide range of mixotrophic strategies persisted in model habitats with low phosphorus supply, but only those with a strategy that is mostly autotrophic persisted with high nutrient supply, and then only when light supply was also high. Organisms representing all four nutritional strategies were predicted to coexist in habitats with high phosphorus and light supplies. Coexistence involves predation by zooflagellates and mixotrophs balancing the high competitive ability of bacteria for phosphorus, the partitioning of partially overlapping resources between all populations, and possibly nonequlibrium dynamics. In most habitats, the strategy predicted to maximize the abundance of mixotrophs is to be mostly photosynthetic and supplement nutritional needs by consuming bacteria.     

Why do sex ratio dimorphisms exist in Quercus masting? Evolution of imperfect synchronous reproduction in Monoecious trees

Masting is synchronous intermittent production of seeds in perennial plant populations. Some self-compatible monoecious Quercus species, such as oaks, exhibit sex ratio dimorphism and produce a certain proportion of male flowers, even in a year when no seed set occurs. To investigate sex ratio dimorphism in masting trees, we introduced sexual allocation as an evolutionary trait into the Resource Budget Model and examined the evolution of the sex ratio. Analytical and numerical findings show that (1) perfectly synchronous intermittent reproduction does not evolve; (2) if the fruiting cost of female flowers R_c is sufficiently large and the pollen limitation β is intermediate, annual reproduction does not evolve; (3) under conditions (2), sex ratio dimorphism can evolve across a wide region of parameter space; (4) after dimorphism is established, individuals with a female-biased sex ratio receive much more pollen supply from male-biased individuals and tend to show intermittent reproduction with or without synchrony; and (5) dimorphism is maintained with irregular and nearly discontinuous changes of sex ratio. These results suggest that sex ratio dimorphism contributes to improving pollen availability and causes resource depletion and the occurrence of intermittent reproduction in female-biased individuals.     

Seedling survival responses to irradiance are differentially influenced by low-water availability in four tree species of the Iberian cool temperate–Mediterranean ecotone

Inter-specific differences in seedling survival responses along a sun-shade gradient and the influence of low-water availability were examined for four Iberian tree species (Quercus robur L., Quercus pyrenaica Willd., Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus pinaster Ait.) typical of the cool temperate–Mediterranean transition zone. Seedlings were grown under controlled conditions in a factorial experiment with four levels of irradiance (1%, 6%, 20% and 100% of full sunlight) and two levels of water availability. Five censuses (from late spring to autumn) leading to four regular intervals (T₀ → T_I; T_I → T_II; T_II → T_III; T_III → T_IV) were established. Statistical models of seedling survival as a function of irradiance were calibrated throughout the whole experiment (T₀ → T_IV) and also for each time interval and water availability level. Seedling survival responses among different species diverged both in the type of functional response to irradiance and in their response to water stress. Ranking of species according to shade tolerance (Q. pyrenaica > Q. robur > P. sylvestris > P. pinaster) contrasted with tolerance of high irradiance and conformed to a hypothetical sun-shade trade-off for survival (i.e. species having higher survival in low irradiance—oaks—had poorer survival at high irradiance and vice-versa). Low-water availability also differentially affected each species, with pines being more drought tolerant than oaks. At an intra-specific level, low-water availability decreased survival of Q. pyrenaica under both high and low irradiance. For Q. robur, however, low-water availability exerted a relatively stronger effect under low irradiance. Consequences of the interplay between irradiance and water availability for explaining segregation and coexistence of forest tree species at the ecotone between cool temperate and Mediterranean forests are discussed.