Modelling heterogeneity in detection probabilities in land and aerial abundance surveys in humpback whales (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Megaptera novaeangliae</Emphasis>)

The effective management and conservation of animal populations relies on statistically-sound and replicable surveys to obtain estimates of abundance and assess trends. Surveys of cetaceans, such as humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae, are difficult to conduct and are particularly affected by bias in detection probability. For example, the probability of detection of whales from land decreases substantially with increased distance from the platform. This distance effect is also true for aerial surveys, combined with the problem that animals are unavailable for detection (underwater) whilst in the field of view. We present a novel approach that combines corrected double-platform land surveys with corrected aerial surveys to obtain a robust estimate of g(0), the probability of detection on the survey line, for aerial surveys of migrating humpback whales. Several sources of heterogeneity in detection probabilities were identified within the land and aerial surveys (including group composition, bearing of first sighting, number of groups being tracked simultaneously and cloud cover). After including these into our estimate of ĝ(0), we found that only 29% of available whales are being detected on the survey line (ĝ(0) = 0.288), which is a considerably smaller estimate than many available for humpback whales using other methods. Incorporating heterogeneity into the population surveys shows that we are likely to be underestimating the population size of whales on the east coast of Australia. The implications of this result for their conservation and management in light of increased whale-human conflict is discussed.     

The potential beginning of a postwhaling recovery in New Zealand humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Between the 1940s and 1970s Southern Hemisphere populations of humpback whales (including eastern Australia and Oceania populations) were hunted to near extinction by extensive commercial whaling activities in Antarctica, with fewer whales taken in shore whaling operations in New Zealand, Australia (including Norfolk Island) and Tonga. Variable rates of recovery of these populations have been documented, ranging from recovery to prewhaling numbers in eastern Australian humpbacks to very little sign of recovery in many Oceania populations. Here we analyze recent sighting data collected over 12 yr, from annual surveys in Cook Strait, New Zealand. The data show an increase in sightings, at an estimated rate of 13% (95% CI of 4.9% and 21.7%) in 2015, of humpback whales migrating through Cook Strait. The wide confidence intervals preclude substantive conclusions about the rate of increase but suggest humpback whales are returning to this region in increasing numbers, indicating an influx of immigrants from neighboring areas, namely eastern Australia.     

中国基层医疗机构手癣和足癣诊治现状调查

目的了解基层医生有关手癣、足癣的诊治现状,分析影响因素,制定有针对性的措施。方法通过网络平台对全国19个省市的基层医生进行问卷调查。结果共回收完整问卷729份。结果显示:①约20%的基层医生对手、足癣的发病因素方面存在认识不足,约50%的基层医生对受侵犯皮肤的组织定位存在误区。②基层医生对手、足癣鉴别诊断的重要性重视不够,真菌镜检设备使用率不足一半。③基层医生能正确选用外用抗真菌药,硝酸咪康唑乳膏使用率超过80%。④仍有10.70%的基层医生推荐使用外用糖皮质激素治疗手、足癣。结论基层医生在手、足癣的规范诊疗方面仍有待提高。     

Social encounter networks: characterizing Great Britain

A major goal of infectious disease epidemiology is to understand and predict the spread of infections within human populations, with the intention of better informing decisions regarding control and intervention. However, the development of fully mechanistic models of transmission requires a quantitative understanding of social interactions and collective properties of social networks. We performed a cross-sectional study of the social contacts on given days for more than 5000 respondents in England, Scotland and Wales, through postal and online survey methods. The survey was designed to elicit detailed and previously unreported measures of the immediate social network of participants relevant to infection spread. Here, we describe individual-level contact patterns, focusing on the range of heterogeneity observed and discuss the correlations between contact patterns and other socio-demographic factors. We find that the distribution of the number of contacts approximates a power-law distribution, but postulate that total contact time (which has a shorter-tailed distribution) is more epidemiologically relevant. We observe that children, public-sector and healthcare workers have the highest number of total contact hours and are therefore most likely to catch and transmit infectious disease. Our study also quantifies the transitive connections made between an individual''s contacts (or clustering); this is a key structural characteristic of social networks with important implications for disease transmission and control efficacy. Respondents'' networks exhibit high levels of clustering, which varies across social settings and increases with duration, frequency of contact and distance from home. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for the transmission and control of pathogens spread through close contact.     

Simulations inform design of regional occupancy‐based monitoring for a sparsely distributed,territorial species

Sparsely distributed species attract conservation concern, but insufficient information on population trends challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancy‐based monitoring is attractive for these species, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to identify minimum levels of sampling effort for a regional occupancy monitoring study design, using white‐headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolvartus), a sparsely distributed, territorial species threatened by habitat decline and degradation, as a case study. We compared the original design with commonly proposed alternatives with varying targets of inference (i.e., species range, space use, or abundance) and spatial extent of sampling. Sampling effort needed to achieve adequate power to observe a long‐term population trend (≥80% chance to observe a 2% yearly decline over 20 years) with the previously used study design consisted of annually monitoring ≥120 transects using a single‐survey approach or ≥90 transects surveyed twice per year using a repeat‐survey approach. Designs that shifted inference toward finer‐resolution trends in abundance and extended the spatial extent of sampling by shortening transects, employing a single‐survey approach to monitoring, and incorporating a panel design (33% of units surveyed per year) improved power and reduced error in estimating abundance trends. In contrast, efforts to monitor coarse‐scale trends in species range or space use with repeat surveys provided extremely limited statistical power. Synthesis and applications. Sampling resolutions that approximate home range size, spatially extensive sampling, and designs that target inference of abundance trends rather than range dynamics are probably best suited and most feasible for broad‐scale occupancy‐based monitoring of sparsely distributed territorial animal species.     

Secular Trends in Measures of Cephalo-Facial Traits among Bengalee Boys Aged 7.0–16.0 Years from Kolkata between 1982–1983 and 1999–2001

While a large number of studies on secular trends have been performed on measures of stature, weight, trunk and limb dimensions, subcutaneous fatness and body composition, etc., less attention has been paid to cephalo-facial traits. This study reports on secular trends in five cephalo-facial traits (head length, head breadth, head circumference, bizygomatic breadth and morphological facial height) and two indices (cephalic index and facial index) in Bengalee Hindu boys between ages 7.0 and 16.0 years. The data set comes from two cross-sectional growth surveys carried out among the students of one particular Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) boys school with an interval of about 20 years (1982–1983 and 1999–2001). Identical protocol with respect to sampling, data collection, measuring technique and data analysis has been followed in both surveys. Except for morphological facial height (which showed negative secular trends), the other four cephalo-facial traits showed positive secular trends with varying magnitudes over the two decades. Cephalic index did not reveal any consistent pattern of change, while facial index showed a declining trend in the later survey.     

Private Lands Programs and Lessons Learned in Illinois

ABSTRACT State wildlife agencies commonly offer private landowners cost-share and technical assistance to improve habitat, but the cost-effectiveness and long-term outcomes of these efforts are rarely evaluated. In 1998, we began a 3-part, statewide evaluation of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources’ (IDNR; USA) Private Land Wildlife Habitat Management Program (hereafter the program) as it functioned from 1986 to 1996. We sent a mail-back questionnaire to IDNR biologists to collect information on their perceptions of the program. We sent a separate mail-back questionnaire to private landholders who participated in the program to ascertain their demographic profile, motivations for participation, and attitudes regarding the program. We also conducted on-site evaluations of private properties that were managed under the guidance of the program. We conducted our study to 1) assess if the program effectively assisted participants in establishing and maintaining wildlife habitat, and 2) determine factors associated with optimal management of wildlife habitat on private lands to refine the program and improve effectiveness. We found significant differences between participants in their land use priorities and motivations for managing wildlife and in the resources available to participants to establish and maintain habitat. Our results indicate that although financial incentives may increase participation in private lands initiatives, improving technical and material assistance to landholders is essential for maintaining quality wildlife habitat over the long-term.     

自动感应照相系统在大熊猫以及同域分布的野生动物研究中的应用

鉴于野生大熊猫种群的濒危现状,已经不允许对其生境进行破坏性或干扰其行为活动较多的调查活动。例如,野生大熊猫个体数量稀少、其栖息地地形复杂或植被茂密,野外直接观察和调查野生大熊猫极为困难。自动感应照相系统是一种非损伤性野生动物调查工具,在很大程度上弥补了传统调查方法的不足,为野生动物的调查和研究提供了新的有效途径。本研究利用自行研究和开发的自动感应照相系统,获得了野生大熊猫及与其同域分布的其它物种的重要生态信息,显示了自动感应照相系统在物种鉴定、区系调查、个体识别、种群监测、性别确定和行为生态学研究等多方面的应用价值[动物学报51(3)：495—500,2005]。