Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

Kronecker积在分析多因子非平衡实验中的应用

以Kroneckert积和效应矩阵为工具,阐明了一种分析多因子缺值实验的严格、有效、方便的新方法。     

Bear deterrence with scare devices,a non-lethal tool in the use-of-force continuum

Wild animals eating agricultural products and coming close to people's residences are primary causes of human–wildlife conflict worldwide. When carnivores eat anthropogenic foods and cause human safety concerns, it often results in the removal of the animals and public demand for reduced wildlife populations. The use of remote methods, such as scare devices, to deter carnivores has been touted in the literature; however, efficacy evidence remains thin. I test the efficacy of a widely available motion-activated solar alarm lamp to deter grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) from farms in Montana, USA. When scare devices were activated, there was a 46% reduction in the odds bears would access an attractant. For every additional scare device, there was an additional 44% reduction in the odds of a bear getting the food. Additionally, scare devices caused bears to be more vigilant and increase movement behavior. More bears in a group led to loss of deterrence efficacy, and there was no evidence for habituation to the aversive stimuli. This deterrence method was most effective in August and for fungicide-treated wheat. Out of 21 farms, scare devices stopped bears from returning to 11 sites. Overall, scare devices can be a cheap and easy first step to preventing, or resolving, some grizzly bear issues in the use-of-force continuum, which hierarchically organizes conflict responses from non-lethal to more severe.     

The Relation Between Growth of Gastrodia elata Protocorms and Fungi

Armillaria mellea penetrated protocorms from seed germination and vegetative multiplication corms of Gastrodia elata with rhizomorph. At beginning, they formed a hypha passing road and a hypha flow in the inner cells of cortex, and then, they both penetrated inside of large cells and penetrated outside of cortical cells. Gastrodia elata seeds depended on digesting Mycenct osmundicola etc gain nutrition to germinate at the stage of sexual reproduction, but its corms of vegetative multiplication must be penetrated by Armillaria mellea obtaining nutrition for normal growth at the stage of vegetative propagation.     

Evaluating effects of weed cutting on water level and ecological status in Danish lowland streams

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Can indicator species predict restoration outcomes early in the monitoring process? a case study with peatlands

Success in ecological restoration is rarely assessed rigorously due to insufficient planning for post-restoration monitoring programs, limited funding and, especially, lack of scientifically validated evaluation criteria and protocols. In this article, we propose the use of the Indicator Value Index technique (IndVal), which statistically determines the association of species to one or several particular site types, to obtain indicators of success at the early stages of the recovery process in restoration projects. Peat bogs extracted by the vacuum method, subsequently restored by a moss-transfer technique and regularly monitored for ~10 years were used as a model system to test this approach. We first identified 34 restored sectors of ~10 ha from 4 to 11 years old in twelve eastern-Canadian bogs. These sectors were then classified according to their degree of success in recovering a typical sphagnum moss carpet (restoration goal). Then, we retrospectively reviewed vegetation communities recorded at the third year after restoration to identify indicator species of different categories of restoration success, using the IndVal methodology. By identifying early indicator species, our method provides a tool that guides intervention soon after restoration if a site is not on a desired successional trajectory. Typical bog species, namely the bryophytes S. rubellum and Mylia anomala and the tree Picea mariana, were indicative of successful restoration; while bare peat, lichens and one species of ericaceous shrubs (Empetrum nigrum), which cope better under drier conditions, indicated sites where restoration failed. A surprising finding was that the moss Polytrichum strictum, which is known to facilitate the colonization of sphagnum in disturbed peatlands, is an early indicator of unsuccessful restoration. This finding made us question the nursing role of P. strictum at a cover threshold above ca. 30%, when P. strictum could be outcompeting sphagnum and become dominant. We conclude that the IndVal method is an effective tool to identify early indicators of restoration success when combined with a thoughtful examination of species frequency and cover within each site type.     

Grazing effects on plant diversity in the endemic Erica mackayana heathland community of north-west Spain

Background: Large areas of heathland landscapes in Galicia, north-west Spain, have traditionally been extensively grazed by free-ranging cattle and wild ponies. Recently, a large reduction in the number of these larger herbivores has been observed, with unknown consequences for the habitat.

Aims: To evaluate the effects of grazing and herbivore density on plant diversity, community composition and vegetation structure of the endemic wet heathlands dominated by Erica mackayana in Galicia.

Methods: Field sampling of vascular plants, generalised linear models (GLMs), non-metric multidimensional distance scaling (NMDS).

Results: Grazed sites had significantly higher total and rare species richness and diversity than ungrazed sites. Higher densities of cattle resulted in lower numbers of rare species, while wild pony density had no effect on rare species richness. In grazed sites, vegetation was lower with greater variation in height, resulting in greater heterogeneity of the habitat. Precipitation and summer temperatures were related to plant diversity, mainly beta diversity. Soil organic matter negatively correlated with rare species.

Discussion: Grazing, mostly by wild ponies, was demonstrated to be positively related to plant diversity and vegetation structure. Lack of grazing or high cattle densities resulted in a negative effect on total and rare species richness and diversity. Future climate change may negatively affect heathland plant diversity. Galician wild ponies represent a unique case of sustainable management of a wild species and an invaluable cultural heritage. Moreover, they have a significant role in maintaining the endemic E. mackayana heathlands, what would justify specific conservation actions for these large herbivores.     

A structured decision making analysis to increase a Red-cockaded Woodpecker population and balance stakeholder objectives for a National Forest

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) savanna is a biodiverse ecosystem native to the southeastern United States. Due to fire suppression and timber harvest, longleaf pine has declined to 3% of its original range. The extant forest provides habitat for many threatened and endangered species, including the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis; RCW), a cavity-nesting bird that co-evolved with fire-maintained forest, resulting in savanna-like old-growth forest as the bird’s preferred habitat. Our study site, the Oakmulgee Ranger District of the Talladega National Forest, harbors the largest RCW population in Alabama and is managed with an emphasis on RCW conservation. The United States Forest Service (USFS) also manages the Oakmulgee for uses such as wildlife conservation, recreation, and timber harvest. Despite efforts to restore RCW habitat and install artificial cavities in the Oakmulgee, the number of RCW groups has not exceeded 123, although the Recovery Plan objective is 394 groups. Our project was motivated by the USFS expressing interest in determining why the RCW population has not exceeded 123 groups. We proposed using structured decision making (SDM) with the USFS and other stakeholders to address this problem. Our goals were to explicitly define management objectives, build a Bayesian belief network with a model of how decision alternatives are believed to affect management objectives, and use a sensitivity analysis to determine the part of the model to which RCW population growth was most sensitive. Therefore, results from the analysis were expected to give insights into 1) ecological factors limiting RCW population growth, 2) how management can overcome these limits, plus 3) the relative expected ability of different decision alternatives to satisfy multiple objectives in addition to increasing RCW group number. We held four SDM workshops with representatives from the USFS, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the Longleaf Alliance, the Birmingham Audubon Society, and local residents. Stakeholder objectives consisted of maximizing the following: RCW group number, forest health, recreational enjoyment, community economic health, and aesthetics. Cavity insert installation had the greatest probability of increasing the number of RCW groups. The number of RCW groups was most affected by cavity availability, adult survival, reproductive output, food availability, and herbaceous understory. Prescribed burning was most likely to meet the combination of stakeholder objectives, followed by midstory removal. Our findings suggest that cavity installation efforts may need to be increased in the Oakmulgee to increase RCW group number. Also it could be beneficial to investigate how RCWs select cavity tree locations with the goal of increasing the chance that RCWs use artificial cavities to form new groups. The Bayesian belief network provided insights into factors limiting RCW population growth and how management can overcome these limits. The Bayesian belief network also can be used to prioritize management methods in the Oakmulgee given stakeholder objectives and time constraints.     

北方草原牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理途径

探讨牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理的途径对于草原有效减畜、遏止草原退化、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。从生态学和社会科学相结合的角度,采用问卷调查、情景实验及综合分析等多种方法,探讨了北方草原牧户心理载畜率的存在、计算和影响因素,以及牧户生产决策行为特征和可能的生态管理途径。研究发现,在草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原,牧户行为属"有限理性",是有限理性的"生态经济人",风险规避是其基本特征,牧户生产决策表现出禀赋效应、损失厌恶、框架效应等;牧户草场所属草原类型和牲畜存栏数显著影响牧户对草场超载的认知和判断,在不同草原类型区,户主文化水平、性别、民族和是否嘎查干部等亦显著影响牧户对超载的认知和判断;需采取基于进化博弈的分步式、合作式及示范引导式的适应性减畜的生态管理途径,以实现牧户心理载畜率向生态优化载畜率的转移,实现优化牧户生产方式、减少牲畜数量、治理草原退化、北方牧区生态和牧民经济双赢的目标。     

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.