Increase of atmospheric CO2 promotes phytoplankton productivity

It is usually thought that unlike terrestrial plants, phytoplankton will not show a significant response to an increase of atmospheric CO₂. Here we suggest that this view may be biased by a neglect of the effects of carbon (C) assimilation on the pH and the dissociation of the C species. We show that under eutrophic conditions, productivity may double as a result of doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Although in practice productivity increase will usually be less, we still predict a productivity increase of up to 40% in marine species with a low affinity for bicarbonate. In eutrophic freshwater systems doubling of atmospheric CO₂ may result in an increase of the productivity of more than 50%. Freshwaters with low alkalinity appeared to be very sensitive to atmospheric CO₂ elevation. Our results suggest that the aquatic C sink may increase more than expected, and that nuisance phytoplankton blooms may be aggravated at elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

Summer Epidemics of Apple Scab: The Relationship between Measurements and their Implications for the Development of Predictive Models and Threshold Levels under Different Disease Control Regimes

A 2‐year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well‐described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease measurements, i.e. disease incidence and severity measures of apple scab, and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels. The study characterized good relationships between the measurements on cultivar Jonagold using regression analyses in three disease control regimes (untreated, organic and integrated). For fruit quality prediction, the relationship between fruit incidence (I_f) and leaf incidence (I_l) in the organic control regime was given by I_f = 1.966 + 0.402 × (I_l) (R² = 0.92). As a result of low level of disease in the integrated control regime, shoot incidence (I_s), with higher values than leaf incidence, was better suited for prediction. The relationship was given by I_f = ?0.162 + 0.028 × (I_s) (R² = 0.91). For the integrated control regime, disease threshold levels were constructed for timing of the final fungicide application. If an apple grower wants to keep fruit infection under 1% incidence (harvest scab threshold), the timing of the final fungicide application (action threshold) should correspond to 4% shoot scab incidence at the beginning of August. The results are compared with similar studies and their biological interpretation is discussed.     

A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time‐scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics.     

STABILITY IN THE PROPORTION OF HARBOR SEALS HAULED OUT UNDER LOCALLY IDEAL CONDITIONS

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those "ideal conditions" differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.     

Mercury translocation in and evaporation from soil. III. quantification of evaporation of mercury from podzolized soil profiles treated with Hg Cl

Mercury evaporation from undisturbed iron‐humus podzol lysimeters was measured over 3 months after treatment with HgCl₂ spiked with radioactive ²⁰³Hg. The relative evaporation rate from HgCl₂ treated soils followed the sum of two exponential functions. Because evaporation asymptotically approaches zero with time, the integral of the fit curve represents the evaporative loss in percent of atmospheric deposition. For the soil investigated, about 5% of atmospheric Hg deposition was reemitted into the atmosphere. It is hypothesized that mercury evaporation can decrease the leaching of mercury in and from soil significantly; this effect is probably increasing with decreasing rain acidity or soil acidity. Mercury deposited as soluble salt remains susceptible to reemission to air for 300 d after incorporation into the soil matrix. Indications are found that Hg evaporation from soils in geological background areas predominantly derives from recent atmospheric Hg deposition and not from geological sources.     

Analyses of spatial patterns and population processes of clonal plants

The nonrandom spatial structure of terrestrial plants is formed by ecological interactions and reproduction with a limited dispersal range, and in turn this may strongly affect population dynamics and population genetics. The traditional method of modelling in population ecology is either to neglect spatial pattern (e.g. in transition matrix models) or to do straightforward computer simulation. We review here three analytical mothods to deal with plant populations in a lattice-structured habitat, which propagate both by seeds that scatter over the whole habitat and by vegetative reproduction (producing runners, rhizomes, etc.) to neighboring vacant sites. [1]Dynamics of global and local densities: Dynamical equations of population density considering nearest-neighbor correlation (spatial clumping) are developed as the joint dynamics of global average density and local density (comparable to mean crowding) based onpair approximation. If there is a linear trade-off between seed production and vegetative reproduction, the equilibrium abundance of the population may be maximized by engaging both means of reproduction. This result is accurately predicted by the pair approximation method, but not by mean-field approximation (neglect of spatial structure). [2]Cluster size distributions: Using global and local densities obtained by pair approximation, we predicted cluster size distribution, i.e. the number of clusters of occupied sites of various sizes. [3]Clonal identity probability decreasing with distance: Multi-locus measurement of allozymes or other neutral molecular markers tells us whether or not a given pair of individuals belong to the same clone. From the pattern of clonal identity probability decreasing with the distance between ramets, we can estimate the relative importance of two modes of reproduction: vegetative propagation and sexual seed production.     

Populations and infectious diseases: Dynamics and evolution

The host-parasite or host-pathogen system was analyzed from dynamical and evolutionary viewpoints using simple mathematical models incorporating vertical transmission, immunity and its loss. We first analyzed a model without density regulation of host population. In the analysis on dynamics, the condition for the pathogen to work as a density regulating factor was obtained. In the analysis on evolution, criteria for the evolution of host and pathogen were proposed. These criteria implies that the evolution of hosts should result in an increase in infected host density, whereas the evolution of pathogens a decrease in susceptible host density. The direction of evolution at some parameters of host and that of pathogen were examined when the parameters were independently and freely changeable. Among the parameters, only reduction in additional mortality due to infection was the evolutionary trend common to both host and pathogen. In all the other parameters examined, trend of evolution predicted in host is reversed in pathogen. We then analyzed whether the obtained criteria still hold in models with density regulation of hosts. Using randomly generated parameter sets, we obtained the result that the criteria should hold very likely though they do not always hold. We discussed evolution of virulence when there is a constraint between the traits.     

固定化细胞分布对动力学影响的模型化研究

通过对固定化Gluconobacter oxydans和Bacillus cereus的活细胞系统的研究,提出了固定化细胞不均匀分布模型,将此类分布与均匀分布(最劣分布模型)进行比较,分析了它们对固定化细胞内部的基质浓度分布、有效速率因子和选择率的影响,指出不均匀分布和均匀分布对于该固定化活细胞系统的动力学行为无显著影响,这一模型分析结果在实验中得以验证。通过无因次化分析,建立了适用于固定化生物催化剂动力学研究的模型方法。     

应用FIA型微生物传感器测定谷氨酸含量的研究

目前应用酶或微生物细胞作为分子识别元件构建生物传感器测定谷氨酸含量的研究引起了广泛的兴趣,并陆续有实例报道。在这些报道中人们依据不同的酶催反应选择相应的离子选择性电极,如CO₂电极、NH₄⁺电极等,而测量对象有直接的测定谷氨酸,也有测定谷氨酸单钠的间接测定法。本文选用了可固定大量细胞的固定化细胞柱与流动注入法相结合的测量方法,并根据细胞柱的动力学模型分析动态响应曲线,计算测量结果,提高了测量精度,扩大了测量范围。