Shrinkage Pre-Test Estimator of the Intercept Parameter for a Regression Model with Multivariate Student-t Errors

In the presence of an uncertain prior information about the value of the slope parameter, the estimation of the intercept parameter of a simple regression model with a multivariate Student-t error distribution is investigated. The unrestricted, restricted and shrinkage preliminary test maximum likelihood estimators are defined. The expressions for the bias and the mean square error of the three estimators are provided and the relative efficiences are analyzed. A maximin criterion is established, and graphs are constructed for an arbitrary number of degrees of freedom (D.F.) as well as sample sizes. A criterion to select optimal significance level is also discussed.     

Effect of temperature on the acidolysis of N-acyl-N,alpha,alpha-trialkyl glycine amides as related to the nature of substituents.

The C-terminal amide bond of N-acyl-N,alpha,alpha-trialkyl glycine amides is labile to acid and this has been currently assigned to steric crowding within the amino acid residue. However, our previous work has shown that in the acidolysis of some of these compounds steric hindrance seems to play a less important role than what one would expect. Thus, the cleavage of two sets of such compounds bearing different degrees of crowding was investigated at five different temperatures in order to clarify the effect of structure on reactivity in terms of enthalpy and entropy of activation. The compounds exhibited an Arrhenius-type behaviour, and both enthalpies and entropies of activation were calculated by taking advantage of the transition state theory. In addition, the kinetic data were analysed in terms of isokinetic relationships in order to find evidence to support that the compounds react under the same mechanism. The changes in the reaction rate are governed by the changes in both the enthalpy and the entropy of activation, which are related to bond energy and steric hindrance, respectively. In general, the entropies of activation are very negative for all compounds investigated, which reflects large steric constrictions associated with the formation of the transition state. In addition, they are very sensitive to the structure of the substrates.     

Light as an environmental filter in fen vegetation

Questions: 1. To what extent does light availability differ among fen plant communities? 2. To what extent does light coincide with productivity and moisture gradients? 3. Does light act as an important environmental filter in natural and transformed riparian landscapes? Location: Current data from the Biebrza Valley, NE Poland; literature data from the T?eboň area, Czech Republic and four sites in the western and southern Netherlands. Methods: Relative light intensity (RLI) was measured in vertical profiles, next to vegetation relevés accompanied by measurements of above‐ground biomass, summer groundwater level, N and P content in vegetation, pH and soil redox potential. Data derived from literature included profiles of RLI, biomass and vegetation records. Relationships between RLI and biomass and between species distribution, RLI and other variables were examined by regression analysis and CCA. Four traits were analysed: ability to spread clonally, seed weight, maximum height of adults and time of commencement of flowering. Results: RLI at ground level varied from < 1% in reed beds and tall herb meadows to > 60% in sedge‐moss communities and litter meadows. RLI was largely determined by the standing crop and explained a large part of variation in species occurrence. The combinations of analysed functional traits were constrained by the communities’ light profiles. Conclusion: Light availability is related more closely to site fertility than to hydrological regime. This confirms that hydrological regime and productivity should be analysed separately with regard to their effect on species distribution in wetlands. Limited light availability seems the major environmental control of the distribution of low growing and late flowering species.     

Half-of-the-sites reactivity of inorganic pyrophosphatase from yeast is the result of induced asymmetry

A covalent adduct of norchlorpromazine (CAPP) and calmodulin is a very potent antagonist of calmodulin activation of several enzymes. The phenothiazine-calmodulin complex (CAPP-calmodulin) acts as a pure antagonist with phosphodiesterase and myosin kinase or a partial agonist with the phosphoprotein phosphatase, calcineurin. Because of its potency and the selectivity inherent to its calmodulin moiety, CAPP-calmodulin should be a uniquely useful probe of calmodulin actions.     

Influence of temperature and water vapour pressure on the flight activity ofSimulium arcticum Malloch (Diptera: Simuliidae)

The effects of temperature and vapour pressure deficit on the flight activity ofSimulium arcticum were defined under controlled laboratory conditions. Optimum conditions of temperature and vapour pressure deficit for flight activity varied with time of exposure to the environmental conditions. By applying polynomial equations for the various response surfaces it was possible to predict the time-dependent, optimal hygrothermal environment for black-fly flight activity. Greatest variability in flight activity occurred just prior to death of the insects. Mortality of flies after 1 h exposures to the experimental conditions occurred only at high temperatures and vapour pressure deficits. With increased time of exposure, mortality increased at lower temperatures and vapour pressure deficits.     

An Exact Confidence Interval for the Ratio of Two Related Proportions

I propose an exact confidence interval for the ratio of two proportions when the proportions are not independent. One application is to estimate the population prevalence using a screening test with perfect specificity but imperfect sensitivity. The population prevalence is the ratio of the observed prevalence divided by the test's sensitivity. I describe a method to calculate exact confidence intervals for this problem and compare these results with approximate confidence intervals given previously.     

Evaluation of raw-data-based and calculated electron density for contrast media with a dual-energy CT technique

ObjectivesThe aim of the current study is to evaluate the accuracy and the precision of raw-data-based relative electron density (RED_raw) and the calibration-based RED (RED_cal) at a range of low-RED to high-RED for tissue-equivalent phantom materials by comparing them with reference RED (RED_ref) and to present the difference of RED_raw and RED_cal for the contrast medium using dual-energy CT (DECT).MethodsThe RED_raw images were reconstructed by raw-data-based decomposition using DECT. For evaluation of the accuracy of the RED_raw, RED_ref was calculated for the tissue-equivalent phantom materials based on their specified density and elemental composition. The RED_cal images were calculated using three models: Lung-Bone model, Lung-Ti model and Lung-Ti (SEMAR) model which used single-energy metal artifact reduction (SEMAR). The difference between RED_raw and RED_cal was calculated.ResultsIn the titanium rod core, the deviations of RED_raw and RED_cal (Lung-Bone model, Lung-Ti model and Lung-Ti model with SEMAR) from RED_ref were 0.45%, 50.8%, 15.4% and 15.0%, respectively. The largest differences between RED_raw and RED_cal (Lung-Bone model, Lung-Ti model and Lung-Ti model with SEMAR) in the contrast medium phantom were 8.2%, ?23.7%, and 28.7%, respectively. However, the differences between RED_raw and RED_cal values were within 10% at 20 mg/ml. The standard deviation of the RED_raw was significantly smaller than the RED_cal with three models in the titanium and the materials that had low CT numbers.ConclusionThe RED_cal values could be affected by beam hardening artifacts and the RED_cal was less accurate than RED_raw for high-Z materials as titanium.Advances in knowledgeThe raw-data-based reconstruction method could reduce the beam hardening artifact compared with image-based reconstruction and increase the accuracy for the RED estimation in high-Z materials, such as titanium and iodinated contrast medium.     

Some Mathematical Properties of Cumulative Damage Models Regarding Their Application in Cancer Epidemiology

In an earlier paper, cumulative damage models (CD models) were proposed for modelling the epidemiological aspects of carcinogenesis. In the present paper, further, mainly mathematical support is given for the adequacy of this approach. In the first place, this concerns the aspect that the cumulative damage process is a compound Poisson process. Secondly, it will be demonstrated that the CD models can be considered as a formal generalization of certain well-known special carcinogenesis models. A more intensive investigation of these models themselves makes it evident that, on account of their mathematical qualities, they will possibly place very efficient new measures at the disposal of epidemiology. A diffusion approximation, however, does, after first experiments, not appear to make the handling of the models any easier but, on the contrary, to lead to a loss of certain pleasant qualities.     

Twenty years of melanoma in Victoria,Queensland, and South Australia (1997 – 2016)

BackgroundGiven the high incidence of melanoma in Australia alongside high mortality with later stage disease, we investigated the populations and locations most at risk, to optimise public health activities in areas where intervention is most needed. This study examines trends and identifies significant prognostic factors and potential disparities in incidence, mortality and survival between population groups in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.MethodsThe analysis includes data from the population-based cancer registries of the three states over a twenty-year period (1997–2016). Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and long-term trends analysed using Joinpoint Regression. Five-year relative survival estimates for the study population were calculated using the cohort method and multivariable flexible parametric survival models were applied for each jurisdiction to calculate adjusted excess mortality hazard ratios for the key characteristics.ResultsThere were more males with melanoma than females in all the three states. Over 60% of the cases occurred in the 40–74 years age group. Most melanomas had a Breslow thickness less than or equal to 1.0 mm. For males, Victoria and Queensland had a statistically significant increasing trend whereas in South Australia there was a decreasing trend. For females, the incidence rate trend was stable in Victoria but significantly decreasing in South Australia. In Queensland there was an increasing and statistically significant trend from 2006 to 2016. Across all three states there was a reducing incidence rate in the youngest cohort, stabilizing incidence in the 40–59-year-old age group, and increasing in the oldest cohorts. Five-year relative survival decreased with increasing age and with Breslow thickness across all three jurisdictions. Males had between 43%− 46% excess mortality compared to females in all the three states. There was higher risk with increasing age and Breslow thickness, with the largest risk among the 75 + age group and those with a Breslow thickness of > 4 mm.ConclusionIt is the first time that data from these three registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population. This study compares the epidemiology of melanoma across three states and provides a better understanding of trends and factors affecting outcome for Australians with melanoma. While there has been some improvement in aspects of incidence and mortality, this has not been evenly achieved across Australia.     

How do trees die? Mode of death in northern Amazonia

Question: How do trees die in high‐mortality and low‐mortality Amazonian forest regions? Why do trees die in different ways? Location: Humid, lowland forests in Amazonian Peru and Venezuela. Methods: Patterns of multiple treefall and mode of death (standing, broken or uprooted) were recorded for trees ≥10 cm in diameter in permanent plots. Logistic regression was used to relate mode of death to tree diameter, relative growth rate and wood density. Results: Frequency of multiple death events was higher in high‐mortality northwestern (NW) than in low‐mortality northeastern (NE) Amazonia, but these events were small, averaging two trees killed per multiple death event. Breakage was the dominant known mode of death (51±8%) in the NW, with half of fatal breakages caused by other treefalls or breakages. Small and slow‐growing trees were more prone to breaking than uprooting. In NE Amazonia, the dominant known mode of death was standing (48±10%); these trees tended to be relatively large and slow growing. Broken trees in NE forests have a lower wood density than uprooted trees. Conclusions: The major mortality mechanisms differ in the two regions. In the NW it involves an interaction between physiological failure and mechanical failure (small size, slow growth and broken mode). In the NE it is mainly driven by physiological failure (large size, slow growth and standing mode). We propose that by creating different‐sized gaps the different dominant modes of death would favour species from different functional groups and so help to maintain the contrasting functional composition and mortality rates of the two regions.