The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak

An outbreak of anthrax occurred in the city of Sverdlovsk in Russia in the spring of 1979. The outbreak was due to the inhalation of spores that were accidentally released from a military microbiology facility. In response to the outbreak a public health intervention was mounted that included distribution of antibiotics and vaccine. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply statistical methodology to analyse the Sverdlovsk outbreak, and in particular to estimate the incubation period of inhalational anthrax and the number of deaths that may have been prevented by the public health intervention. The data available for analysis from this common source epidemic are the incubation periods of reported deaths. The statistical problem is that incubation periods are truncated because some individuals may have had their deaths prevented by the public health interventions and thus are not included in the data. However, it is not known how many persons received the intervention or how efficacious was the intervention. A likelihood function is formulated that accounts for the effects of truncation. The likelihood is decomposed into a binomial likelihood with unknown sample size and a conditional likelihood for the incubation periods. The methods are extended to allow for a phase-in of the intervention over time. Assuming a lognormal model for the incubation period distribution, the median and mean incubation periods were estimated to be 11.0 and 14.2 days respectively. These estimates are longer than have been previously reported in the literature. The death toll from the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak could have been about 14% larger had there not been a public health intervention; however, the confidence intervals are wide (95% CI 0-61%). The sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and the parametric model for the incubation period distribution are investigated. The results are useful for determining how long antibiotic therapy should be continued in suspected anthrax cases and also for estimating the ultimate number of deaths in a new outbreak in the absence of any public health interventions.     

Period doubling of calcium spike firing in a model of a Purkinje cell dendrite

Recordings from cerebellar Purkinje cell dendrites have revealed that in response to sustained current injection, the cell firing pattern can move from tonic firing of Ca²⁺ spikes to doublet firing and even to quadruplet firing or more complex firing. These firing patterns are not modified substantially if Na⁺ currents are blocked. We show that the experimental results can be viewed as a slow transition of the neuronal dynamics through a period-doubling bifurcation. To further support this conclusion and to understand the underlying mechanism that leads to doublet firing, we develop and study a simple, one-compartment model of Purkinje cell dendrite. The neuron can also exhibit quadruplet and chaotic firing patterns that are similar to the firing patterns that some of the Purkinje cells exhibit experimentally. The effects of parameters such as temperature, applied current, and potassium reversal potential in the model resemble their effects in experiments. The model dynamics involve three time scales. Ca²⁺- dependent K⁺ currents, with intermediate time scales, are responsible for the appearance of doublet firing, whereas a very slow hyperpolarizing current transfers the neuron from tonic to doublet firing. We use the fast-slow analysis to separate the effects of the three time scales. Fast-slow analysis of the neuronal dynamics, with the activation variable of the very slow, hyperpolarizing current considered as a parameter, reveals that the transitions occurs via a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations of the fast and intermediate subsystem as this slow variable increases. We carry out another analysis, with the Ca²⁺ concentration considered as a parameter, to investigate the conditions for the generation of doublet firing in systems with one effective variable with intermediate time scale, in which the rest state of the fast subsystem is terminated by a saddle-node bifurcation. We find that the scenario of period doubling in these systems can occur only if (1) the time scale of the intermediate variable (here, the decay rate of the calcium concentration) is slow enough in comparison with the interspike interval of the tonic firing at the transition but is not too slow and (2) there is a bistability of the fast subsystem of the spike-generating variables.     

Circadian period lengths of lipid synthesis mutants (cel,chol-1) of Neurospora show defective temperature,but intact pH-compensation

The influence of extracellular pH on the circadian sporulation rhythm of Neurospora crassa has been investigated for the mutants chol-1 and cel. Both mutants have a defect in the lipid synthesis pathway and require either choline or palmitate, respectively, as supplements for normal growth. The chol-1 and cel mutants also show an impaired temperature-compensation when growing on minimal medium. We investigated the possible correlation between loss of temperature- and pH-compensation in cel and chol-1 similar to the correlation found earlier for the frq⁷ mutant. Our results show that the cel and the chol-1 mutants, although defective in temperature-compensation have an intact pH-compensation of their circadian rhythms. At present, the products of the frq-locus are the only components of the clock that affect the sporulation rhythm of Neurospora both through pH- and temperature-compensation.     

Role of aromatase and androgen receptor expression in gonadal sex differentiation of ZW/ZZ-type frogs,Rana rugosa

To elucidate the mechanisms of amphibian gonadal sex differentiation, we examined the expression of aromatase and androgen receptor (AR) mRNAs for days 17-31 after fertilization. The effects of inhibitors and sex steroid hormones were also examined. In ZZ males, expression of AR decreased after day 19, while aromatase expression was low throughout the sampling period. Males treated with 17beta-estradiol (E2) showed increasing aromatase expression after day 21, and formed ovaries. AR antagonist treatment also induced high-level aromatase expression and ovarian differentiation. In males co-treated with an aromatase inhibitor and E2, the undifferentiated gonads developed into testes despite high-level aromatase expression. Males treated with androgen and E2 before and during an estrogen sensitive period, respectively, also formed testes. In ZW females, AR expression persisted at a low-level, while aromatase expression increased after day 18. Short-term treatment with an aromatase inhibitor was ineffective in preventing ovarian differentiation, whereas long-term treatment resulted in testes developing from ovarian structure. Compared with the ZZ males and ZW females, WW females did not exhibit detectable expression of AR, suggesting that the active AR gene(s) itself, or a putative gene regulating AR gene expression, is located on Z chromosomes. From the time lag of aromatase expression between ZW females and ZZ males treated with E2 and the effect of AR antagonist, it was found that in males elevated AR expression suppresses aromatase expression directly or indirectly. Consequently, endogenous androgens, accumulated by blocking estrogen biosynthesis, induced testicular differentiation. The gonadogenesis of males is dependent on sex hormone, whereas that of females has evolved to hormone-independence.     

洪湖子莲开花结实习性及调控技术的研究

阐明了子莲开花结实习性与花期气候的关系,并以洪湖气候与子莲开花结实的关系,莲蓬大小和莲蓬心皮数目与荷花发育时所处季节地关系以及死蕾,死花,死果与开花时天气的关系等三方面,论证了在该区调控子莲开花结实的必要性。最后还提出了调控子莲开花结实的几项农业技术。     

Patterns of reproduction in Malayan silvered leaf monkeys at the Bronx Zoo

Within phylogenetic limits reproductive characteristics of a given species may vary between populations in response to ecological and social factors. For instance, in environments where high quality nutrition is readily available, the onset and speed of reproduction are often accelerated. Other influencing factors might be maternal experience or the sex of the infant. Here we present data on reproductive characteristics for the silvered leaf monkey (Trachypithecus cristatus), a medium‐sized Asian colobine housed at the Wildlife Conservation Society's Bronx Zoo as a one‐male group. To place the species into an appropriate phylogenetic context, we limited our comparison to other colobine species. Demographic data span 21.4 years (October 1985 to March 2007) and derive from 30 adult females (128.0 female years). Detailed behavioral data stem from a 2.2 years study (November 2002 to January 2005; 734 days, 4,225 hr). As in other Asian colobines, receptive periods were short (mean=4.3 days, n=68). This is expected for one‐male groups where receptivity likely indicates, rather than conceals, ovulation. Gestation length was estimated based on a change in the pattern of sexual behavior (mean=194.6 days, n=7). It fell within the range reported for the taxon. Births occurred year round, at an early age (mean=2.9 years, n=8), at short intervals (mean=14.9 months, n=59) in combination with a short lactation (mean 12.1 months, n=9) likely due to the nearly unlimited availability of nutrition in this zoo setting. Primiparous females tended to have a longer first interbirth interval but infant survival rates were similar to multipara possibly due to the absence of predators. Maternal investment was independent of the infant's sex and birth sex ratio was even. Our results emphasize that when interpreted with caution, zoo populations yield realistic reproductive characteristics that can help fill the gap in our knowledge about colobine life history. Am. J. Primatol. 71:852–859, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Life history and locomotion in Cebus capucinus and Alouatta palliata

As an individual matures from birth to adulthood, many factors may influence the positional repertoire. The biological and behavioral changes that accompany a growing individual are expected to influence foraging strategy, social status and interaction, diet, predator avoidance strategies, and ultimately positional behavior as a behavioral link between anatomy and the environment. In this work, positional behavior is considered as an important feature of life history in juvenile and adult white‐faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus) and mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) inhabiting the same tropical forest in Costa Rica. During growth and development ontogenetic changes in body size, limb proportions, and motor skills are likely to influence locomotion and posture through the arboreal canopy. I collected data on positional behavior, activity, branch size, branch angle, and crown location during a 12‐month period at Estación Biológica La Suerte in northeastern Costa Rica. Life history timing and differences in rates of growth did not predictably influence the development of adultlike positional behaviors in Cebus and Alouatta. Young Cebus resembled the adult pattern of positional behavior by 6 months of age while howlers exhibited significant differences in several positional behavior categories through 24 months of age. The positional repertoire of both species revealed similarities in the types of modes used during feed/forage and travel in juveniles and adults. Data presented here suggest that the environment exerts different pressures on growing Cebus and Alouatta that may relate to diet, energy expenditure, foraging skill, and/or social learning. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009 © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Effects of a plant product consisting of green tea and curcuma extract on milk production and the expression of hepatic genes involved in endoplasmic stress response and inflammation in dairy cows

During the periparturient phase, cows are typically in an inflammation-like condition, and it has been proposed that inflammation associated with the induction of stress of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in the liver contributes to the development of fatty liver syndrome and ketosis. In the present study, the hypothesis that supplementation of dairy cows with a plant product consisting of green tea (95%) and curcuma extract (5%) rich in polyphenols attenuates inflammation and ER stress in the liver during early lactation was investigated. Twenty-seven cows were assigned to two groups, either a control group (n = 14) or a treatment group (n = 13). Both groups of cows received a total mixed ration, and the ration of the treatment group was supplemented with 0.175 g of the plant product per kg dry matter from week 3 prepartum to week 9 postpartum. Dry matter intake and energy balance during week 2 to week 9 postpartum were not different between the two groups. However, cows supplemented with the plant product had a greater amount of energy-corrected milk during week 2 to week 9 postpartum and lower concentrations of triacylglycerols and cholesterol in the liver in week 1 and week 3 postpartum than cows of the control group (p < 0.05). Cows supplemented with the plant product showed a trend towards a reduced mRNA concentration of haptoglobin (p < 0.10), while relative mRNA concentrations of eight genes of the unfolded protein response considered in the liver were not different between the two groups of cows. Relative hepatic mRNA concentration of fibroblast growth factor, a stress hormone induced by various stress conditions, was reduced at week 1 and week 3 postpartum in cows supplemented with the plant product (p < 0.05). Overall, the data of this study suggest that – although there were only minor effects on the occurrence of ER stress and inflammation – a supplementation of polyphenols might be useful to improve milk yield and prevent fatty liver syndrome in dairy cows.     

Detection and decay rates of prey and prey symbionts in the gut of a predator through metagenomics

DNA methods are useful to identify ingested prey items from the gut of predators, but reliable detection is hampered by low amounts of degraded DNA. PCR‐based methods can retrieve minute amounts of starting material but suffer from amplification biases and cross‐reactions with the predator and related species genomes. Here, we use PCR‐free direct shotgun sequencing of total DNA isolated from the gut of the harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis at five time points after feeding on a single pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum. Sequence reads were matched to three reference databases: Insecta mitogenomes of 587 species, including H. axyridis sequenced here; A. pisum nuclear genome scaffolds; and scaffolds and complete genomes of 13 potential bacterial symbionts. Immediately after feeding, multicopy mtDNA of A. pisum was detected in tens of reads, while hundreds of matches to nuclear scaffolds were detected. Aphid nuclear DNA and mtDNA decayed at similar rates (0.281 and 0.11 h^?1 respectively), and the detectability periods were 32.7 and 23.1 h. Metagenomic sequencing also revealed thousands of reads of the obligate Buchnera aphidicola and facultative Regiella insecticola aphid symbionts, which showed exponential decay rates significantly faster than aphid DNA (0.694 and 0.80 h^?1, respectively). However, the facultative aphid symbionts Hamiltonella defensa, Arsenophonus spp. and Serratia symbiotica showed an unexpected temporary increase in population size by 1–2 orders of magnitude in the predator guts before declining. Metagenomics is a powerful tool that can reveal complex relationships and the dynamics of interactions among predators, prey and their symbionts.     

Lipoic acid entrains the hepatic circadian clock and lipid metabolic proteins that have been desynchronized with advanced age

It is well established that lipid metabolism is controlled, in part, by circadian clocks. However, circadian clocks lose temporal precision with age and correlates with elevated incidence in dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome in older adults. Because our lab has shown that lipoic acid (LA) improves lipid homeostasis in aged animals, we hypothesized that LA affects the circadian clock to achieve these results. We fed 24 month old male F344 rats a diet supplemented with 0.2% (w/w) LA for 2 weeks prior to sacrifice and quantified hepatic circadian clock protein levels and clock-controlled lipid metabolic enzymes. LA treatment caused a significant phase-shift in the expression patterns of the circadian clock proteins Period (Per) 2, Brain and Muscle Arnt-Like1 (BMAL1), and Reverse Erythroblastosis virus (Rev-erb) β without altering the amplitude of protein levels during the light phase of the day. LA also significantly altered the oscillatory patterns of clock-controlled proteins associated with lipid metabolism. The level of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) α was significantly increased and acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACC) and fatty acid synthase (FAS) were both significantly reduced, suggesting that the LA-supplemented aged animals are in a catabolic state. We conclude that LA remediates some of the dyslipidemic processes associated with advanced age, and this mechanism may be at least partially through entrainment of circadian clocks.