气候变化对东北沼泽湿地潜在分布的影响

东北地区是我国沼泽湿地分布最广泛的地区。为研究沼泽湿地对气候变化的响应,选取了对沼泽湿地分布可能存在影响的26个环境因子,利用最大熵(Maximum Entropy, MaxEnt)模型模拟了沼泽湿地基准气候条件下的潜在分布,并预测了气候变化情景下2011-2040 年、2041-2070 年和2071-2100 年3个研究阶段东北沼泽湿地潜在分布。研究结果表明:最大熵模型预测精度较高(平均AUC(Aera Under Curve)为(0.826±0.005))。基准气候条件下东北沼泽潜在分布区主要为大小兴安岭和三江平原地区。随着时间的推进,东北地区沼泽湿地原有潜在分布面积明显减少,而新增潜在分布面积较少,总面积呈现急剧减少趋势。至2071-2100年,原有沼泽湿地潜在分布面积将减少99.80%,新增潜在分布面积仅2.48%,总潜在分布面积减少97.32%。空间分布上,东北沼泽湿地潜在分布呈现由东向西迁移,南北向中心收缩的趋势。研究结果可为东北地区沼泽湿地保护政策的制定提供参考。     

基于多判据决策的水体营养状态评价

为了准确地评价水生态系统营养状态和综合决策,通过最大熵原理耦合模糊性与随机性,建立了最大熵模糊评价模型(FAME);利用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS),以待决策水体样本的实测值为理想解,以评价结果中与实测值相差最大的为负理想解,建立了多判据决策模型(MCDM).经12个湖泊实测数据验证,最大熵模糊评价与随机评价、模糊评价和灰色评价的结果较为一致,但提高了评价水体营养状态问题各层次的分辨力.多判据决策模型可解决多种方法评价结果不相容问题,使评价结果更接近水体实际情况.FAME和MCDM适用于各种水质的综合评价及决策.     

中国三种常见蒿属植物潜在地理分布及其主导气候因子

裂叶蒿(Artemisia tanacetifolia)、大籽蒿(Artemisia sieversiana)和艾(Artemisia argyi)是我国常见的蒿属(Artemisia)植物,其分布区域遍布全国.本文利用MaxEnt模型预测3种蒿属植物在当前气候条件以及未来两种气候情景下的潜在分布区.采用受试者工作特征...     

单一景观空间分布指数及其适用性评价

为描述单一景观的空间分布离散性和广度特征,引入基于香农熵的空间分布指数(MSHDI,Modified Shannon's Distribution Index),利用河南省中南部地区1990、2001和2007年3期TM/ETM+遥感影像,进行了MSHDI与经典景观指数的比较,并分析了MSHDI与面积指数(PLAND,Percentage of Landscape)在多网格尺度下的相关关系。结果表明:(1)MSHDI在描述单一景观的空间分布广度和离散程度特征方面具有较好的适用性。MSHDI能适应不同制图综合程度的影响,并能反映出景观斑块边缘的细微差别。(2)通过分析MSHDI与PLAND之间相关系数的大小和变化程度可以分别验证MSHDI的表征性和稳定性。(3)MSHDI适用于基底和散布状景观,两种指数之间有显著的正相关性(农用地=0.939,=0.000;城市建设=0.877,=0.004;工矿仓储=0.870,=0.002;自然绿地=0.966,=0.001),且随网格粒度变化不大(农用地r=0.921±0.054;城市建设r=0.867±0.107;工矿仓储r=0.883±0.052;自然绿地r=0.964±0.024);而对网状景观则缺乏稳定性。     

Ontogenetic trait variation and metacommunity effects influence species relative abundances during tree community assembly

Predicting species abundance is one of the most fundamental pursuits of ecology. Combining the information encoded in functional traits and metacommunities provides a new perspective to predict the abundance of species in communities. We applied a community assembly via trait selection model to predict quadrat-scale species abundances using functional trait variation on ontogenetic stages and metacommunity information for over 490 plant species in a subtropical forest and a lowland tropical forest in Yunnan, China. The relative importance of trait-based selection, mass effects, and stochasticity in shaping local species abundances is evaluated using different null models. We found both mass effects and trait selection contribute to local abundance patterns. Trait selection was detectable at all studied spatial scales (0.04–1 ha), with its strength stronger at larger scales and in the subtropical forest. In contrast, the importance of stochasticity decreased with spatial scale. A significant mass effect of the metacommunity was observed at small spatial scales. Our results indicate that tree community assembly is primarily driven by ontogenetic traits and metacommunity effects. Our findings also demonstrate that including ontogenetic trait variation into predictive frameworks allows ecologists to infer ecological mechanisms operating in community assembly at the individual level.     

未来气候变化对四种木姜子地理分布的影响

该文利用最大墒模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS 10.3)软件对中国木姜子属(Litsea)四种资源植物在我国当代、未来(2061年—2080年)气候条件下的潜在分布区进行预测,并对其适宜区进行分析和划分。结果表明:山鸡椒(Litsea cubeba)适宜区广泛分布在长江以南区域,在未来时段2061年—2080年两种(RCP2.6、RCP8.5)二氧化碳浓度情景下适宜区面积分别减少4.9%和0.5%;毛豹皮樟(L. coreana)适宜区主要分布在中亚热带及北亚热带区域,分布相对偏北,其在未来2061年—2080年两种二氧化碳浓度情景下适宜区面积分别增加5.6%和4.5%;华南木姜子(L. greenmaniana)适宜区主要分布在我国南亚热带区域;毛叶木姜子(L. mollis)适宜区广泛分布在亚热带区域。这两种树种在未来气候RCP2.6情景下适生面积减少1.0%和3.3%,在RCP8.5情景下减少5.6%和8.3%。上述结果说明木姜子属不同种由于生态习性差异对未来的气候变化的响应不尽相同,对这些植物引种栽培须考虑气候变化的影响。     

基于最大熵原理的浙江毛竹胸径分布及测量不确定度评定

应用最大熵原理构造了测树因子概率分布的统一模型,这样构造的模型具有明确的解析表达式,并能克服常用方法无法解释测树因子服从某种概率分布的真正原因,从而为测树因子统计分布建模提供了一种有效方法.使用1-3阶样本矩、1-4阶样本矩与1-5阶样本矩,用所构建的概率分布统一模型分别对浙江省域毛竹胸径分布分别作了仿真试验,结果表明当采用1-4阶样本矩时,仿真效果最好,而且比通过假设检验的Weibull分布仿真结果理想:(1)图形非常相似,对实测数据都能很好的模拟;(2)最大熵法的离差平方和为0.00018,Weibull分布的为0.00045[1].由于各种系统与非系统的原因,都会影响测量结果的准确性,对所构建的模型作了不确定度评定,表明结果具有很大的可靠性,测量结果的估计:7.85100,测量结果的标准不确定度:1.82710,置信概率:0.96020.     

Human recombinant [C22A] FK506-binding protein amide hydrogen exchange rates from mass spectrometry match and extend those from NMR.

Hydrogen/deuterium exchange behavior of human recombinant [C22A] FK506 binding protein (C22A FKBP) has been determined by protein fragmentation, combined with electrospray Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (MS). After a specified period of H/D exchange in solution, C22A FKBP was digested by pepsin under slow exchange conditions (pH 2.4, 0 degree C), and then subjected to on-line HPLC/MS for deuterium analysis of each proteolytic peptide. The hydrogen exchange rate of each individual amide hydrogen was then determined independently by heteronuclear two-dimensional NMR on 15N-enriched C22A FKBP. A maximum entropy method (MEM) algorithm makes it possible to derive the distributions of hydrogen exchange rate constants from the MS-determined deuterium exchange-in curves in either the holoprotein or its proteolytic segments. The MEM-derived rate constant distributions of C22A FKBP and different segments of C22A FKBP are compared to the rate constants determined by NMR for individual amide protons. The rate constant distributions determined by both methods are consistent and complementary, thereby validating protein fragmentation/mass spectrometry as a reliable measure of hydrogen exchange in proteins.     

Effects of ligand binding on the stability of aldo–keto reductases: Implications for stabilizer or destabilizer chaperones

Ligands such as enzyme inhibitors stabilize the native conformation of a protein upon binding to the native state, but some compounds destabilize the native conformation upon binding to the non‐native state. The former ligands are termed “stabilizer chaperones” and the latter ones “destabilizer chaperones.” Because the stabilization effects are essential for the medical chaperone (MC) hypothesis, here we have formulated a thermodynamic system consisting of a ligand and a protein in its native‐ and non‐native state. Using the differential scanning fluorimetry and the circular dichroism varying the urea concentration and temperature, we found that when the coenzyme NADP⁺ was absent, inhibitors such as isolithocholic acid stabilized the aldo–keto reductase AKR1A1 upon binding, which showed actually the three‐state folding, but destabilized AKR1B10. In contrast, in the presence of NADP⁺, they destabilized AKR1A1 and stabilized AKR1B10. To explain these phenomena, we decomposed the free energy of stabilization (ΔΔG) into its enthalpy (ΔΔH) and entropy (ΔΔS) components. Then we found that in a relatively unstable protein showing the three‐state folding, native conformation was stabilized by the negative ΔΔH in association with the negative ΔΔS, suggesting that the stabilizer chaperon decreases the conformational fluctuation of the target protein or increase its hydration. However, in other cases, ΔΔG was essentially determined by the delicate balance between ΔΔH and ΔΔS. The proposed thermodynamic formalism is applicable to the system including multiple ligands with allosteric interactions. These findings would promote the development of screening strategies for MCs to regulate the target conformations.     

基于生态足迹修正模型的江苏省海洋经济可持续发展分析

基于生态足迹的理论和方法,提出海洋生态足迹的概念,并根据江苏省海洋环境的特殊性,构建了渔业用海、交通运输用海、工程建筑用海、能源用海、滩涂5个海洋生态足迹子模型,采用改进熵值法确定5类用海的均衡因子,分析了2000-2008年江苏省海洋生态足迹和生态承载力.结果表明:2000-2008年间,江苏省人均海洋生态足迹增幅近7倍,从36.90 hm2上升到252.94 hm2;人均生态承载力从105.01 hm2增至185.49 hm2,呈平稳增长态势;2000年,江苏省海洋环境处于生态盈余状态,海洋经济呈弱可持续发展状态,2004年,海洋生态环境急剧恶化,生态赤字高达109660.5 hm2,海洋经济可持续能力下降.渔业用海的高生态足迹是造成江苏省海洋生态赤字的主要原因,滩涂是维持江苏省海洋经济可持续发展的重要后备资源.