Survival analysis using auxiliary variables via multiple imputation, with application to AIDS clinical trial data

We develop an approach, based on multiple imputation, to using auxiliary variables to recover information from censored observations in survival analysis. We apply the approach to data from an AIDS clinical trial comparing ZDV and placebo, in which CD4 count is the time-dependent auxiliary variable. To facilitate imputation, a joint model is developed for the data, which includes a hierarchical change-point model for CD4 counts and a time-dependent proportional hazards model for the time to AIDS. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to multiply impute event times for censored cases. The augmented data are then analyzed and the results combined using standard multiple-imputation techniques. A comparison of our multiple-imputation approach to simply analyzing the observed data indicates that multiple imputation leads to a small change in the estimated effect of ZDV and smaller estimated standard errors. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the qualitative findings are reproducible under a variety of imputation models. A simulation study indicates that improved efficiency over standard analyses and partial corrections for dependent censoring can result. An issue that arises with our approach, however, is whether the analysis of primary interest and the imputation model are compatible.     

Semiparametric regression modeling with mixtures of Berkson and classical error, with application to fallout from the Nevada test site

We construct Bayesian methods for semiparametric modeling of a monotonic regression function when the predictors are measured with classical error. Berkson error, or a mixture of the two. Such methods require a distribution for the unobserved (latent) predictor, a distribution we also model semiparametrically. Such combinations of semiparametric methods for the dose response as well as the latent variable distribution have not been considered in the measurement error literature for any form of measurement error. In addition, our methods represent a new approach to those problems where the measurement error combines Berkson and classical components. While the methods are general, we develop them around a specific application, namely, the study of thyroid disease in relation to radiation fallout from the Nevada test site. We use this data to illustrate our methods, which suggest a point estimate (posterior mean) of relative risk at high doses nearly double that of previous analyses but that also suggest much greater uncertainty in the relative risk.     

Statistical inference for familial disease clusters

In many epidemiologic studies, the first indication of an environmental or genetic contribution to the disease is the way in which the diseased cases cluster within the same family units. The concept of clustering is contrasted with incidence. We assume that all individuals are exchangeable except for their disease status. This assumption is used to provide an exact test of the initial hypothesis of no familial link with the disease, conditional on the number of diseased cases and the distribution of the sizes of the various family units. New parametric generalizations of binomial sampling models are described to provide measures of the effect size of the disease clustering. We consider models and an example that takes covariates into account. Ascertainment bias is described and the appropriate sampling distribution is demonstrated. Four numerical examples with real data illustrate these methods.     

A generalized discriminant rule when training population and test population differ on their descriptive parameters

Standard discriminant analysis methods make the assumption that both the labeled sample used to estimate the discriminant rule and the nonlabeled sample on which this rule is applied arise from the same population. In this work, we consider the case where the two populations are slightly different. In the multinormal context, we establish that both populations are linked through linear mapping. Estimation of the nonlabeled sample discriminant rule is then obtained by estimating parameters of this linear relationship. Several models describing this relationship are proposed and associated estimated parameters are given. An experimental illustration is also provided in which sex of birds that differ morphometrically over their geographical range is to be deterrmined and a comparison with the standard allocation rule is performed. Extension to a partially labeled sample is also discussed.     

Characteristics of trajectory in the migration of Amoeba proteus

Summary. We investigated the behavior of migration of Amoeba proteus in an isotropic environment. We found that the trajectory in the migration of A. proteus is smooth in the observation time of 500-1000 s, but its migration every second (the cell velocity) on the trajectory randomly changes. Stochastic analysis of the cell velocity and the turn angle of the trajectory has shown that the histograms of the both variables well fit to Gaussian curves. Supposing a simple model equation for the cell motion, we have estimated the motive force of the migrating cell, which is of the order of piconewton. Furthermore, we have found that the cell velocity and the turn angle have a negative cross-correlation coefficient, which suggests that the amoeba explores better environment by changing frequently its migrating direction at a low speed and it moves rectilinearly to the best environment at a high speed. On the other hand, the model equation has simulated the negative correlation between the cell velocity and the turn angle. This indicates that the apparently rational behavior comes from intrinsic characteristics in the dynamical system where the motive force is not torquelike.     

The compliance score as a regressor in randomized trials

The compliance score in randomized trials is a measure of the effect of randomization on treatment received. It is in principle a group-level pretreatment variable and so can be used where individual-level measures of treatment received can produce misleading inferences. The interpretation of models with the compliance score as a regressor of interest depends on the link function. Using the identity link can lead to valid inference about the effects of treatment received even in the presence of nonrandom noncompliance; such inference is more problematic for nonlinear links. We illustrate these points with data from two randomized trials.     

Frailty modeling for spatially correlated survival data,with application to infant mortality in Minnesota

The use of survival models involving a random effect or 'frailty' term is becoming more common. Usually the random effects are assumed to represent different clusters, and clusters are assumed to be independent. In this paper, we consider random effects corresponding to clusters that are spatially arranged, such as clinical sites or geographical regions. That is, we might suspect that random effects corresponding to strata in closer proximity to each other might also be similar in magnitude. Such spatial arrangement of the strata can be modeled in several ways, but we group these ways into two general settings: geostatistical approaches, where we use the exact geographic locations (e.g. latitude and longitude) of the strata, and lattice approaches, where we use only the positions of the strata relative to each other (e.g. which counties neighbor which others). We compare our approaches in the context of a dataset on infant mortality in Minnesota counties between 1992 and 1996. Our main substantive goal here is to explain the pattern of infant mortality using important covariates (sex, race, birth weight, age of mother, etc.) while accounting for possible (spatially correlated) differences in hazard among the counties. We use the GIS ArcView to map resulting fitted hazard rates, to help search for possible lingering spatial correlation. The DIC criterion (Spiegelhalter et al., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 2002, to appear) is used to choose among various competing models. We investigate the quality of fit of our chosen model, and compare its results when used to investigate neonatal versus post-neonatal mortality. We also compare use of our time-to-event outcome survival model with the simpler dichotomous outcome logistic model. Finally, we summarize our findings and suggest directions for future research.     

Multivariate exploratory tools for microarray data analysis

The ultimate success of microarray technology in basic and applied biological sciences depends critically on the development of statistical methods for gene expression data analysis. The most widely used tests for differential expression of genes are essentially univariate. Such tests disregard the multidimensional structure of microarray data. Multivariate methods are needed to utilize the information hidden in gene interactions and hence to provide more powerful and biologically meaningful methods for finding subsets of differentially expressed genes. The objective of this paper is to develop methods of multidimensional search for biologically significant genes, considering expression signals as mutually dependent random variables. To attain these ends, we consider the utility of a pertinent distance between random vectors and its empirical counterpart constructed from gene expression data. The distance furnishes exploratory procedures aimed at finding a target subset of differentially expressed genes. To determine the size of the target subset, we resort to successive elimination of smaller subsets resulting from each step of a random search algorithm based on maximization of the proposed distance. Different stopping rules associated with this procedure are evaluated. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated with an application to the analysis of two sets of gene expression data.     

Evaluation and comparison of random amplification of polymorphic DNA, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and ADSRRS-fingerprinting for typing Serratia marcescens outbreaks

Amplification of DNA fragments surrounding rare restriction sites (ADSRRS-fingerprinting) is a novel assay based on suppression of polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This phenomenon allows the amplification of only a limited subset of DNA fragments, since only those with two different oligonucleotides ligated at the ends of complementary DNA strands are amplified in the PCR. The DNA fragments can be easily analyzed on polyacrylamide gels, stained with ethidium bromide. We have implemented this method using a set of clinical Serratia marcescens isolates from three outbreaks ongoing in the Public Hospital in Gdańsk (Poland). Clustering of ADSRRS-fingerprinting data matched epidemiological, microbiological, random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) data. Based on this study, we found that there is at least a similar power of discrimination between the present 'gold-standard' PFGE and the novel method, ADSRRS-fingerprinting. Although the ADSRRS-fingerprinting method may appear to be more complex than the RAPD technique, we found it fast and reproducible.