The expected effects of climate change on wheat development

Air temperature and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to rise. These two factor have a great potential to affect development, growth and yield of crops, including wheat. Rising air temperature may affect wheat development more than rising atmospheric CO₂ as there is not yet evidence that elevated CO₂ concentrations can directly induce changes in wheat development. In winter wheat, temperature has a complex effect on development due to its strong interaction with vernalization and photoperiod. In this paper, potential effects of rising temperature on the development of winter wheat from sowing to heading are considered in the light of this complex controlling mechanism. Data from a large series of field trials made in Romania is analysed at first and, subsequently, the IATA-Wheat Phenology model is used to calculate the impact of air warming on wheat development under different climate change scenarios. Data from the field trials showed very clearly the occurrence of a complex temperature/photoperiod/vernalization interaction for field sown crops and demostrated that the photoperiodic and vernalization responses have a key role in controlling the duration of the emergence-heading period. Temperature plays, instead, a central role in controlling seed germination and crop emergence as well as leaf inititiation and leaf appearance rate. The results of model analysis showed very well that the impact of an even or uneven distribution of warning effects may be very different. In the first case, the model predicted that the duration of the vegetative period was at least partly reduced in some years. In the second case, the model suggested that if warming will be more pronounced in winter than in spring, as predicted for some areas of the world by General Circulation Models, we may expect an increase in the duration of the vegetative phase of growth. On the contrary, in case of a spring warming but unchanged winter temperatures, we may expect a substantial decrease in the duration of the vegetative period.     

Molecular genetic characterization of plant somatic hybrids

An efficient and easy method for genetic characterization of plant somatic hybrids is proposed. In a first qualitative approach, four somatic hybrids and their parental species (Nicotiana tabacum andN. plumbaginifolia) were characterized by DNA fingerprinting and Random Amplification of Polymorphic DNA (RAPD). After this, a quantitative estimation of the degree of parental contribution to the hybrids was carried out by means of a slot-blot analysis. Both qualitative methods, showed one hybrid identical toN. tabacum, two almost identical toN. plumbaginifolia, and a fourth similar to this parental species, but with someN. tabacum admixture. The quantitative method, for the same hybrids, gave 83%, 7%, 7%, and 37%N. tabacum DNA contribution, respectively.     

基于4种生态位模型的金钱松潜在适生区预测

金钱松（Pseudolarix amabilis）是我国特有孑遗植物,为国家II级保护植物。基于4种生态位模型（GARP、Bioclim、Domain和Maxent）预测金钱松潜在适生区,采用受试者工作特征曲线（Receiver Operating Characteristic,ROC）和Kappa统计量检验模型的预测效果。预测结果表明金钱松在浙江西北部、安徽南部、湖北南部、湖南北部以及江西北部表现为高度适生,并以这些地带为中心向外延伸至北纬24.43°-33.35°和东经106.41°-123.42°之间,4种模型预测结果的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（Area under recriver operating characteristic curve,AUC）平均值均大于0.9,Kappa平均值亦大于0.75,精度较高。通过"刀切法"分析得出年均温是预测金钱松潜在适生区的关键影响因子,可能为当前金钱松分布格局形成的决定因素。模拟金钱松在末次盛冰期和2070年气候条件下的分布,结果表明其分布格局随气候变化由"南扩北缩"变为"南缩北扩",未来分布面积将大幅减小,气候变化是导致其"南缩北扩"的主要驱动因子。建议在当前金钱松高适分布区域内（江西铜鼓县、湖南张家界和衡阳）建立自然保护区或种子园,并在未来气候条件下高适分布区域内（如安徽北部、河南南部、湖北东南部等地）通过人工引种辅助金钱松的北向迁移。     

Multi‐model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi‐arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.     

From clinical specimens to human cancer preclinical models—a journey the NCI-cell line database—25 years later

The intramural the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and more recently the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center with many different collaborators comprised a complex, multi-disciplinary team that collaborated to generated large, comprehensively annotated, cell-line related research resources which includes associated clinical, and molecular characterization data. This material has been shared in an anonymized fashion to accelerate progress in overcoming lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death across the world. However, this cell line collection also includes a range of other cancers derived from patient-donated specimens that have been remarkably valuable for other types of cancer and disease research. A comprehensive analysis conducted by the NCI Center for Research Strategy of the 278 cell lines reported in the original Journal of Cellular Biochemistry Supplement, documents that these cell lines and related products have since been used in more than 14 000 grants, and 33 207 published scientific reports. This has resulted in over 1.2 million citations using at least one cell line. Many publications involve the use of more than one cell line, to understand the value of the resource collectively rather than individually; this method has resulted in 2.9 million citations. In addition, these cell lines have been linked to 422 clinical trials and cited by 4700 patents through publications. For lung cancer alone, the cell lines have been used in the research cited in the development of over 70 National Comprehensive Cancer Network clinical guidelines. Finally, it must be underscored again, that patient altruism enabled the availability of this invaluable research resource.     

Electrogenic Properties of the Sodium Pump in a Dynamic Model of Membrane Transport

The general purpose of this theoretical work is to contribute to understand the physiological role of the electrogenic properties of the sodium pump, by studying a dynamic model that integrates diverse processes of ionic and water transport across the plasma membrane. For this purpose, we employ a mathematical model that describes the rate of change of the intracellular concentrations of Na⁺, K⁺ and Cl⁻, of the cell volume, and of the plasma membrane potential (V _m ). We consider the case of a nonexcitable, nonpolarized cell expressing the sodium pump; Na⁺, K⁺, Cl⁻ and water channels, and cotransporters of KCl and NaCl in its plasma membrane. We particularly analyze here the conditions under which the physiological V _m can be generated in a predominantly electrogenic fashion, as a result of the activity of the sodium pump. A major conclusion of this study is that, for the cell model considered, a low potassium permeability is not a sufficient condition for a predominantly electrogenic generation of the V _m by the sodium pump. The presence of an electroneutral exchange of Na⁺ and K⁺ represents a necessary additional requirement. Received: 8 September 1999/Revised: 21 March 2000     

Predicting walnut (Juglans spp.) crop yield using meteorological and airborne pollen data

Crop yield determines economy by influencing prices on the trade market, and so accurate forecasts of the yield are important for planning various aspects of agricultural production. The main aim of this study is to construct a model for predicting walnut yield in an important walnut production area (the region of Novi Sad in Northern Serbia). Relationships between the amount of walnuts produced annually (2000–2011) and abiotic (e.g. meteorological) and biotic (e.g. airborne pollen data) factors were examined using Pearson correlation analysis. Walnut yield data were then entered into linear regression models with variables that had the highest correlations. The models were constructed using 10 years of data, and tested using 2 years of data not included in constructing the model. This paper has shown that walnut yield is greatly dependent on weather conditions, particularly during fertilisation and seed growth, but the amount of available airborne pollen also plays an important role. The introduction of the seasonal pollen index, as a proxy for the amount of pollen available for fertilisation, improved the performance of models predicting walnut yield.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

Simulation of nitrogen assimilation by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass

Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and ¹⁵N and on organic ¹⁵N dynamics in soils incubated with ¹⁵N added as NH⁺₄ or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of ¹⁵N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil.     

Applicability of phosphorus budget models to southern African man-made lakes

An investigation of the phosphorus loading characteristics of 31 southern African man-made was lakes made. The lakes were characterized by low water retention times, with most of the lakes having retention times of less than one year. Catchment phosphorus export rates showed wide variation (1–162 mg P m^-2 y^-1) with those lakes experiencing excessive municipal wastewater inputs having export rates in excess of 53 mg m^-2 y^-1. The phosphorus data were tested against the Vollenweider (1976) and Dillon & Rigler (1974) phosphorus budget models which predict in-lake steady state concentrations of phosphorus. It was found that both models displayed good potential for the prediction of steady state concentrations of phosphorus, with better results being obtained from the Dillon & Rigler (1974) model. However, because phosphorus concentrations within these lakes may not necessarily be related to trophic status the use of these models as a predictive tool for eutrophication control still requires further development.