Modelling and analyzing density-dependent population processes: Comparison between wild and laboratory strains of the bean weevil,Callosobruchus chinensis (L.)

Three models were constructed for analyzing the population characteristics ofC. chinensis on stored beans; model A describing the whole reproductive process with a single equation, model B describing the three age-specific processes (oviposition, egg survival and larval survival) with separate equations, and model C which describes all these processes not for the whole habitat but for the individual beans comprizing it. The logit equation was employed here as a common basis to describe the density-response relationship involved. All three models showed very good fit to the experimental data obtained for both laboratory and wild strains of the weevil. The parameter values characterizing the population dynamics were, however, widely different between the two strains; the laboratory one which had been reared for some 500 generations showed significantly higher reproductive capacity, less sensitive and gentler response to crowding in both adult and egg stages, and more uniform egg distribution among individual beans, as compared with the wild strain newly introduced. Sensitivity analyses using these models suggested that these changes in population characteristics have been attained by the process of domestication or adaptation to stable laboratory conditions through a long period of time. This process seemed in effect to have optimized the population's performances in the laboratory environment. Evolutionary significance of such optimization was discussed with reference to the selection pressure which may have acted upon individuals.     

Complex Genetic Effects on Early Vegetative Development Shape Resource Allocation Differences Between Arabidopsis lyrata Populations

Costs of reproduction due to resource allocation trade-offs have long been recognized as key forces in life history evolution, but little is known about their functional or genetic basis. Arabidopsis lyrata, a perennial relative of the annual model plant A. thaliana with a wide climatic distribution, has populations that are strongly diverged in resource allocation. In this study, we evaluated the genetic and functional basis for variation in resource allocation in a reciprocal transplant experiment, using four A. lyrata populations and F₂ progeny from a cross between North Carolina (NC) and Norway parents, which had the most divergent resource allocation patterns. Local alleles at quantitative trait loci (QTL) at a North Carolina field site increased reproductive output while reducing vegetative growth. These QTL had little overlap with flowering date QTL. Structural equation models incorporating QTL genotypes and traits indicated that resource allocation differences result primarily from QTL effects on early vegetative growth patterns, with cascading effects on later vegetative and reproductive development. At a Norway field site, North Carolina alleles at some of the same QTL regions reduced survival and reproductive output components, but these effects were not associated with resource allocation trade-offs in the Norway environment. Our results indicate that resource allocation in perennial plants may involve important adaptive mechanisms largely independent of flowering time. Moreover, the contributions of resource allocation QTL to local adaptation appear to result from their effects on developmental timing and its interaction with environmental constraints, and not from simple models of reproductive costs.     

Evidence of non‐stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non‐stationary (i.e. non‐time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above‐ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above‐ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non‐stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above‐ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.     

气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响

肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS)是一种啮齿动物传播的自然疫源性疾病, 危害严重, 已成为全球重要的公共卫生问题。本研究采用数理统计模型及小波分析方法, 对陕西省西安市鄠邑区1984-2016年HFRS的发生与鼠类、气候和经济因素的关系进行分析, 探讨气候和经济因素对HFRS发生的影响。小波分析结果表明, 该地区的HFRS暴发史可能分为两个时期, 推测每个时期具有不同的主要宿主, 在2002年褐家鼠(Rattus norvegicus)可能取代黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarius)成为HFRS疫源地的主要宿主。广义可加模型模拟结果表明, HFRS的发生与1984-2001年黑线姬鼠密度间存在极显著非线性效应(F_2.06,9.02 = 102.415, P < 0.01), 两者间显现为正相关; 与2002-2016年的褐家鼠密度间呈正相关(F_1.67,9.02 = 73.929, P < 0.01); HFRS主要宿主的这种变化可能与当地气候变化和经济发展有关: HFRS的发生与年平均温度存在极显著的非线性效应(F_2.93,9.02 = 12.164, P < 0.01), 两者间呈负相关; 同样, HFRS的发生与上一年的国内生产总值(GDP)也存在显著非线性效应(F_1.70,9.02 = 2.917, P < 0.05), 两者间也呈负相关。结构方程模型通过直接和间接的影响途径证明了这种转移机制, 发现温度对HFRS发生有显著的直接负向影响以及通过褐家鼠的间接正向影响; GDP对HFRS发生有直接的负向影响。本研究表明HFRS的发生与气候变化和经济发展相关, 两者均能影响HFRS的暴发, 该结论有助于今后更好地对HFRS疾病进行预防和控制。     

A penalized structural equation modeling method accounting for secondary phenotypes for variable selection on genetically regulated expression from PrediXcan for Alzheimer's disease

As the global burden of mental illness is estimated to become a severe issue in the near future, it demands the development of more effective treatments. Most psychiatric diseases are moderately to highly heritable and believed to involve many genes. Development of new treatment options demands more knowledge on the molecular basis of psychiatric diseases. Toward this end, we propose to develop new statistical methods with improved sensitivity and accuracy to identify disease‐related genes specialized for psychiatric diseases. The qualitative psychiatric diagnoses such as case control often suffer from high rates of misdiagnosis and oversimplify the disease phenotypes. Our proposed method utilizes endophenotypes, the quantitative traits hypothesized to underlie disease syndromes, to better characterize the heterogeneous phenotypes of psychiatric diseases. We employ the structural equation modeling using the liability‐index model to link multiple genetically regulated expressions from PrediXcan and the manifest variables including endophenotypes and case‐control status. The proposed method can be considered as a general method for multivariate regression, which is particularly helpful for psychiatric diseases. We derive penalized retrospective likelihood estimators to deal with the typical small sample size issue. Simulation results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method and the real data analysis of Alzheimer's disease illustrates the practical utility of the techniques. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database.     

A detailed model and Monte Carlo simulation for predicting DIP genome length distribution in baculovirus infection of insect cells

Baculoviruses have enormous potential for use as biopesticides to control insect pest populations without the adverse environmental effects posed by the widespread use of chemical pesticides. However, continuous baculovirus production is susceptible to DNA mutation and the subsequent production of defective interfering particles (DIPs). The amount of DIPs produced and their genome length distribution are of great interest not only for baculoviruses but for many other DNA and RNA viruses. In this study, we elucidate this aspect of virus replication using baculovirus as an example system and both experimental and modeling studies. The existing mathematical models for the virus replication process consider DIPs as a lumped quantity and do not consider the genome length distribution of the DIPs. In this study, a detailed population balance model for the cell‐virus culture is presented, which predicts the genome length distribution of the DIP population along with their relative proportion. The model is simulated using the kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm, and the results agree well with the experimental results. Using this model, a practical strategy to maintain the DIP fraction to near to its maximum and minimum limits has been demonstrated.     

鼎湖山南亚热带常绿阔叶林植物功能性状变异与不同垂直层次个体生长的关联

建立植物功能性状与群落动态之间的关联是功能生态学的核心问题之一。本文基于鼎湖山1.44 ha塔吊样地的两次调查数据, 通过采集样地内所有4,142株个体的6种植物功能性状, 对比分析了个体水平植物功能性状和物种水平功能性状均值对不同垂直层次(灌木层、亚冠层和林冠层)个体生长的影响差异。首先, 分析了不同垂直层次下各植物功能性状的变化趋势; 其次, 计算了不同垂直层次下各植物功能性状的种内和种间变异水平; 最后, 运用结构方程模型探讨了植物功能性状、光竞争以及地下竞争对不同垂直层次树木生长的影响。结果表明: (1)不同垂直层次下的植物功能性状表现出明显的分异, 由灌木层至林冠层, 叶面积、比叶面积和能量供求关系指数显著降低, 而叶片厚度和叶片干物质含量显著升高; (2)不同垂直层次下植物功能性状的种间变异均大于种内变异, 且林冠层的种内功能性状变异均大于灌木层和亚冠层; (3)基于个体水平植物功能性状的结构方程模型较物种水平功能性状均值对生长具有更高的解释程度, 且个体水平植物功能性状的引入更有利于提高对灌木层个体生长的预测能力; (4)光竞争和地下竞争主要通过影响功能性状间接影响植物生长。由灌木层至林冠层, 同种间的相互作用逐渐减弱, 异种间的相互作用逐渐增强。综上, 将个体水平植物功能性状纳入分析有助于更好地理解群落的结构和动态。     

Validation of the Boussinesq equation for use in traction field determination

Cell traction force plays an important role in many biological processes. Several traction force microscopy methods have been developed to determine cell traction forces based on the Boussinesq solution. This approach, however, is rooted in a half-space assumption. The purpose of this study was to determine the error induced in the half-space assumption using a finite element method (FEM). It demonstrates that displacement error between the FEM and the Boussinesq equation can be used to measure the accuracy of the Boussinesq equation, although singularity exists in the loading point. For one concentrated force, significant difference between the FEM and the Boussinesq equation occurs in the whole field; this difference decreases with an increase in the plate thickness. However, in the case of the balanced forces, the offset of the balanced forces decreases the errors in the middle area. Overall, this study demonstrates that increasing the thickness of the polyacrylamide gel is important for reducing the error of the Boussinesq equation when determining the displacement field of the gel under loads.