广东罗坑自然保护区鳄蜥夏季生境特征

2005年6—8月,在广东省罗坑自然保护区对36处鳄蜥的生境特征进行了研究。采用样线调查法,在保护区内鳄蜥分布区随机选取了30条溪沟进行调查,对每处有鳄蜥分布的生境测量了15个相关的生态因子。通过主成分分析发现,回水塘长度和宽度、水源距离、水流速度、栖枝高度、栖枝直径、干扰距离、植被类型、植被盖度等9个生态因子对鳄蜥的生境选择有显著影响,而回水塘底质组成、回水塘水深、栖枝枯活状况、栖枝角度、溪沟类型和溪沟坡向6个生态因子的影响不显著。鳄蜥偏好的生境可归结为回水塘长度、宽度中等(均为1.0—2.0m),有位于水源正上方的栖枝,水流速度缓慢,栖枝高度0.5—1.0m、栖枝直径≤1.00cm,干扰距离>500m,植被类型为常绿阔叶林、植被盖度>60%的生境。建议提高当地居民的保护意识,重点保护水源林和溪沟两侧的植被。     

The Precautionary Principle,Epidemiology and the Ethics of Delay

Ethics tells us: do good and do no harm and invokes the norms of justice, equity and respect for autonomy in protecting and promoting health and well-being. The Precautionary Principle, a contemporary re-definition of Bradford Hill's case for action, gives us a common sense rule for doing good by preventing harm to public health from delay: when in doubt about the presence of a hazard, there should be no doubt about its prevention or removal. It shifts the burden of proof from showing presence of risk to showing absence of risk, aims to do good by preventing harm, and subsumes the upstream strategies of the DPSEEA (Driving Forces Pressure Stress Exposure Effect Action) model and downstream strategies from molecular epidemiology for detection and prevention of risk. The Precautionary Principle has emerged because of the ethical import of delays in detection of risks to human health and the environment. Ethical principles, the Precautionary Principle, the DPSEEA model and molecular epidemiology all imply re-emphasizing epidemiology's classic rôle for early detection and prevention. Delays in recognizing risks from past exposures and acting on the findings (e.g., cigarette smoking and lung cancer, asbestos, organochlorines and endocrine disruption, radiofrequency, raised travel speeds) were examples of failures that were not only scientific, but ethical, since they resulted in preventable harm to exposed populations. These may delay results from, among other things, external and internal determinants of epidemiologic investigations of hazard and risk, including misuse of tests of statistical significance. Furthermore, applying the Precautionary Principle to ensure justice, equity, and respect for autonomy raises questions concerning the short-term costs of implementation to achieve long-term goals and the principles that guide compensation.     

Methodologic Implications of the Precautionary Principle: Causal Criteria

Applying the Precautionary Principle to public health requires a re-evaluation of the methods of inference currently used to make claims about disease causation from epidemiologic and other forms of scientific evidence. In current thinking, a well-established, near-certain causal relationship implies highly consistent statistically significant results across many different studies, large relative risk estimates, extensive understanding of biological mechanisms and dose-response relationships, positive prevention trial results, a clear temporal relationship between cause and effect, and other conditions spelled out in terms of the widely-used causal criteria. The Precautionary Principle, however, states that preventive measures are to be taken when cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. What evidentiary conditions, as reflected in the causal criteria, will be certain enough to warrant precautionary preventive action? This paper argues that minimum evidentiary requirements for causation need to be articulated if the Precautionary Principle is to be successfully incorporated into public health practice. Two precautionary changes to criteria-based methods of causal inference are examined: reducing the number of criteria and weakening the rules of inference accompanying the criteria. Such changes point in the direction of identifying minimum evidentiary conditions, but would be premature without better understanding how well current methods of causal inference work.     

The dynamics of freshwater phytoplankton stability in the Naroch Lakes (Belarus)

The phytoplankton community of the Belarus Lakes Naroch, Myastro and Batorino, which have a Trophic State Index of 42.3, 60.7 and 66.8, respectively, underwent drastic changes to their structure during the period between 1968 and 2012. Thanks to an extensive monitoring program, these changes were well-documented and were qualitatively interpreted as signs of the community destabilization. The main objective of this study was the quantification of the ecological stability of the phytoplankton community in the Naroch Lakes. The approach to the quantification of ecological stability was based on defining the stability index as an inverse of the Euclidean Distance between the current and the reference states of the algal community (EuD-approach). The stability of the phytoplankton community was characterized by two indices: a “combined” index (SI[Comb]), and a “total community” index (SI[TotB]). SI[Comb] was calculated based on the individual taxonomic group biomasses and thus characterizes the stability of a community structure. SI[TotB] was calculated based on the values of the total algal biomass. Analyses of the results of this study extended the plausibility of the EuD-approach for the quantification of lake phytoplankton stability and allowed us to identify the dynamics of the stability of the Naroch Lakes phytoplankton. For the Naroch Lakes, we observed relatively larger SI[TotB] values in comparison with the SI[Comb] values. The results enabled us to examine the relationship between the lake trophic status and the stability of the phytoplankton community.     

人类群体遗传结构的协方差阵主成分分析方法

目的:探讨基因频率矩阵的中心化(或均值化)协方差阵主成分分析方法在人类群体遗传结构研究中的适用性和合理性。方法:从基因频率矩阵的结构特征入手,分析中心化、均值化协方差阵主成分分析与标准化相关阵主成分分析在特征根、特征向量以及降维效果等方面的差异,并通过实例比较不同方法在解释群体遗传结构特征上合理性。结果:中心化(或均值化)协方差阵的主成分不仅反映了基因变异程度的“方差信息量权”,而且反映了基因间相互影响程度的“相关信息量权”;标准化相关阵的主成分反映的仅是“相关信息量权”,不包括“方差信息量权”。通过比较中国26个汉族人群HLA-A基因座中心化协方差阵和标准化相关阵2种主成分分析结果,证实中心化协方差阵主成分分析方法在特征根与特征向量、保留主成分的个数和对主成分的群体遗传学解释的合理性等方面均优于标准化相关阵主成分分析方法。结论:在对群体遗传结构进行主成分分析时,应使用中心化(或均值化)变换消除基因频率矩阵中量级的影响,然后在用其协方差阵提取主成分。     

玉米茎秆抗倒伏的力学机制研究

建立了玉米茎秆的力学模型,给出了玉米茎秆抗倒伏的各种性质参数的关系式,为玉米抗倒品种的选育提供了理论基础。     

滇池金线鲃形态度量学分析(Cypriniformes:Cyprinidae)

运用多变量形态度量学和框架结构形态学的方法,测量了采自滇池流域6个不同地点的149尾滇池金线鲃（Sinocyclocheilus grahami）的标本。应用多变量形态度量学分析,选择了20个框架结构性状和19个常规性状,进行主成成分分析。主成成分分析结果的散布图显示,6个不同地点的标本聚在一起没有分开,表明滇池金线鲃的各居群之间在可数性状和可量性状上均未表现出明显的差异,说明滇池金线鲃在形态上还未发生明显的种下分化。     

水稻茎秆抗倒伏的综合评价

利用力学理论和方法,综合分析了水稻茎秆各性状对抗倒伏的影响．突破以往的单性状分析方法,得到水稻茎秆抗倒伏的综合评价指标λ(茎秆柔度),它综合反映了秆长、截面尺寸和形状等茎秆性状．λ是一个无量纲的量,λ值越小,抗倒伏能力越强．