数学模型与自然保护科学

日益加剧的人类干扰和景观破碎化已危及全球的生物多样性。自然保护成为人类所面临的最重要也最富有挑战性的任务。指导这一实践的理论和原则极为需要。本文试图综述与自然保护科学有关的几个学科在理论和实际研究(尤其是模型)方面的近期成果以及发展趋势,从而提出自然保护模型的发展方向。文中涉猎基于不同方法论、不同组织水平的模型,并对数学模型在自然保护科学中的作用和实用性加以讨论。     

Immunoglobulin (GM and KM) allotypes and relation to population history in native peoples of British Columbia: Haida and Bella Coola

Differences in the frequencies of GM haplotypes among native peoples of the Americas support the hypothesis that there were three distinct waves of migration from northeast Asia into the Americas: Paleo-Indian, Na-Dene, and Inuit (Eskimo)-Aleut (Salzano and Steinberg: Am. J. Hum. Genet. 17:273-279, 1965; Sukernik and Osipova: Hum. Genet. 61:148-153, 1982; Williams et al.:Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 66:1-19, 1985; Szathmary: In R Kirk and E Szathmary (eds): Out of Asia: Peopling of the Americas and the Pacific. Canberra: The Journal of Pacific History, Canberra Australian National University, pp. 79-104, 1985). We studied GM allotypes in two linguistically unique populations of Canadian west coast native peoples, the Haida and the Bella Coola, and compared them to GM frequencies in populations that are supposed descendants of the three migrations, in order to investigate the possible genetic relationships of these British Columbia (BC) groups to other native populations. We also estimated the amount of European admixture from the frequency of the Caucasian haplotype, Gm3;5. Results showed that the frequencies in both BC populations of the three common native haplotypes (Gm1,17;21, Gm1,2,17;21, and Gm1,17;15,16), were intermediate between the frequencies in supposed descendants of Paleo-Indian and Na-Dene. These genetic findings are consistent with the controversial hypothesis of archeologist C. Borden (Science 203:963-971, 1979) that, following deglaciation about 13,000 years ago, British Columbia was repopulated by peoples from the north (?Na-Dene) and by culturally distinct peoples from the south (?Paleo-Indian). Caucasian admixture estimates suggested that the Haida and Bella Coola have also experienced moderate amounts (12-20%) of genetic input from European-originating peoples.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Statistical analysis of the migration component of genetic drift

Statistical methods are introduced for analysis of the migration component of genetic drift, i.e., of the stochastic changes that affect allele frequencies during migration between local groups. Attention focuses on alpha M, a parameter that measures the extent to which this component of drift departs from the ideal of independent random sampling, and which can be interpreted as a measure of the extent to which migration is kin-structured. It is shown that alpha M can be estimated from genetic data, even in the absence of information about the genealogical relationships of migrants, and Monte-Carlo simulations are used to approximate the sampling distribution of the estimator under the null hypothesis of independent random sampling. Application of these methods to data from the Aland Islands, Finland, shows that the migration pattern there is consistent with the hypothesis of independent random sampling.     

Individual admixture estimates: disease associations and individual risk of diabetes and gallbladder disease among Mexican-Americans in Starr County, Texas

The ethnic and geographic distributions of several common chronic diseases show distinct patterns that are consistent with the distribution of genes and genetic admixture. For example, diabetes and gallbladder disease occur most frequently among Amerindians, while those genetically admixed with them (such as Mexican-Americans) have intermediate rates, and lowest rates are found among Whites and Blacks. Because there will be heterogeneity from individual to individual in ancestral affinity within an admixed population, a method is developed for estimating each person's admixture probability. Results confirm that there is substantial heterogeneity of individual admixture among Mexican-Americans in Starr County, Texas, with a mean value indicating that 65% of genes in this population are Caucasian derived and 35% Amerindian derived. The individual estimates are shown to be unrelated to the probability of being diabetic and only marginally related to gallbladder disease, with those having the most Amerindian affinity being at increased risk. These results are a consequence of the independent assortment of loci and indicate that unless the markers employed are related (including linkage) to the disease of interest, the method will have limited utility. Individual admixture estimates will be useful, however, for examining aspects of population structure and will find increased utility for predicting disease and examining disease associations as more and more of the genome is represented by markers, a very probable prospect with the abundance of DNA polymorphism being identified by restriction enzymes.     

Differential mortality in Turkana agriculturalists and pastoralists

Nomadic pastoral populations appear to have much lower rates of growth than the otherwise very high growth rates now characteristic of populations in developing nations. Because dramatic declines in infant mortality have been a primary contributor to increased population growth rates in these countries, it has been assumed that nomadic pastoral populations are still characterized by high levels of mortality in the first few years of life. Few studies, however, have been undertaken to estimate demographic parameters for nomadic pastoral populations, and even fewer of a comparative nature have been undertaken to document the impact of subsistence strategy on demographic processes. This study compares indirect childhood mortality estimates for Turkana nomadic pastoralists with childhood mortality in a settled agricultural group within the same population and finds that pastoralists have substantially higher levels of mortality. Based on the childhood mortality estimates, model life tables are selected for pastoral and agricultural groups from which values for mean life expectancy and infant mortality are estimated and compared. Recent improvements in primary health care for the settled agricultural group are ruled out as being an important cause of their lower mortality levels, and some aspects of life-style associated with subsistence strategy are discussed as likely determinants of the mortality differences.     

藏马鸡(Crossoptilon crossoptilon)的繁殖生态研究

藏马鸡是典型高山地牺雉类,见于海拔3,500—3,900米的针叶林带。自4月中至7月底为繁殖期。一“夫”配一“妻”。营巢于海拔3,544—3,790米的岩洞、灌丛中或倒木下。共发现4巢,3巢已被破坏,成功率25％。近年来,由于过渡砍伐森林,天敌的伤害,自身弱点(繁殖率低,成熟期长(3年左右)以及其他因素,藏马鸡的数量日趋减少,正面临绝种的厄运。必须及时地采取有效保护措施。     

Comparison of male adult population densities of the oriental and artocarpus fruit flies,Dacus spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae), in two nearby villages in Penang,Malaysia

The populations of native male adult oriental fruit fly Dacus dorsalis (Hendel ) and artocarpus fruit fly D. umbrosus (F.) in two selected site (BU and SD) were estimated weekly by the capture-recapture technique using live traps baited with methyl eugenol. In BU where many varieties of fruit trees were grown, the estimated population densities of D. dorsalis were between 980 and 3100 male flies per ha between May and July, 1984. During the same period, in SD where there were fewer number and varieties of fruit trees, the estimated population densities were between 300 and 1000 flies per ha. The estimated population densities of D. umbrosus over the same period were between 570 and 1290 flies per ha in BU; and between 5 and 95 flies per ha in SD. Of a total 6828 marked D. dorsalis flies released only one fly (released 6 weeks earlier in BU) was caught in a different site.     

黄海车牛山岛白腰雨燕的繁殖习性及种群动态

本文为作者于1980—1981年对黄海车牛山岛白腰雨燕Apuspacificus pacificus (Latham)的初步研究。内容包括对繁殖习性的观察;对繁殖周期、卵孵化率、雏鸟成活串以及出生率等的统计。并对海岛生态环境下白腰雨燕种群数量的变动及其影响因素,作初步探讨。     

Vegetation study as a generator for population biological and physiological research on salt marshes

The paper deals with some views on the phytocoenose in relation to the functioning of vegetation and its plant-species populations in space and time. From these viewpoints the study of vegetation is seen as a field of tension between the organismic and reductionistic approaches. Both have their value, provided any dogmatism is avoided and either can be applied to the other.In the field of vegetation structure characteristic features of life-form spectra and species distribution, inversion phenomena in zonation, and community architecture in relation to production and decomposition are discussed. In this connection some remarks are made on habitat and niche differentiation with respect to the phytocoenose concept.Vegetation dynamics are discussed in relation to the introduction of Spartina anglica, the frequency of flooding by the tides, different environmental disturbances caused by heavy winter frost, rainfall and hot and dry periods, as well as to human interferences for agricultural and civil-technical purposes.It is suggested that salt-marsh plants may have found refuge areas in inland habitats as well as on more southerly coastal sites during glaciations.Nomenclature follows Tutin et al. (1964–1980).The author wishes to thank his collaborators Messrs B. P. Koutstaal and W. de Munck for much fieldwork, and Mrs M. J. van Leerdam-de Dreu and Messrs A. A. Bolsius and J. A. van den Ende for the preparation of text and figures.Communication No. 302 of the Delta Institute for Hydrobiological Research.     

Permanent coexistence in general models of three interacting species

We address the question of the long term coexistence of three interacting species whose dynamics are governed by the ordinary differential equations x _i = X _i f _i (i = 1, 2, 3). In order for any theory in this area to be useful in practice, it must utilize as little information as possible concerning the forms of the f _i , in view of the great difficulty of determining these experimentally. Here we obtain, under rather general conditions on the equations, a criterion for judging whether the species will coexist in a biologically realistic manner. This criterion depends only on the behaviour near the one or two species equilibria of the two dimensional subsystems, the behaviour there being relatively easy to examine experimentally. We show that with the exception of one class of cases, which is a generalization of a classical example of May and Leonard [21], invasibility at each such equilibrium suitably interpreted is both necessary and sufficient for a strong form of coexistence to hold. In the exceptional case, a single additional condition at the equilibria is enough to ensure coexistence.