Coherent modeling of longitudinal causal effects on binary outcomes

Analyses of biomedical studies often necessitate modeling longitudinal causal effects. The current focus on personalized medicine and effect heterogeneity makes this task even more challenging. Toward this end, structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are fundamental tools for studying heterogeneous treatment effects in longitudinal studies. However, when outcomes are binary, current methods for estimating multiplicative and additive SNMM parameters suffer from variation dependence between the causal parameters and the noncausal nuisance parameters. This leads to a series of difficulties in interpretation, estimation, and computation. These difficulties have hindered the uptake of SNMMs in biomedical practice, where binary outcomes are very common. We solve the variation dependence problem for the binary multiplicative SNMM via a reparameterization of the noncausal nuisance parameters. Our novel nuisance parameters are variation independent of the causal parameters, and hence allow for coherent modeling of heterogeneous effects from longitudinal studies with binary outcomes. Our parameterization also provides a key building block for flexible doubly robust estimation of the causal parameters. Along the way, we prove that an additive SNMM with binary outcomes does not admit a variation independent parameterization, thereby justifying the restriction to multiplicative SNMMs.     

Variation in Outcrossing Rates in Eichhornia paniculata: Temporal Changes in Populations of Contrasting Style Morph Structure

Abstract Surveys of mating-system parameters in populations of the annual, self-compatible, tristylous, emergent aquatic, Eichhornia paniculata (Pontederiaceae) from N.E. Brazil and Jamaica have indicated that the species exhibits a wide range of outcrossing rates. To investigate whether temporal variation in outcrossing rate was also a feature of populations, open-pollinated families were sampled from five populations of contrasting style morph structure from N.E. Brazil over three consecutive years (1987–1989). Multilocus estimates of outcrossing rate ( t ) were obtained from assays of isozyme polymorphisms using starch gel electrophoresis. There was significant variation both among populations and between years in the frequency of outcrossing. Outcrossing in three tristylous populations was high ( t > 0.80), with relatively small fluctuations occurring over the three-year sampling period. In contrast, in a dimorphic and monomorphic population considerable self-fertilization occurred and the frequency of outcrossing declined significantly from 1987 to 1989 in both populations. In the dimorphic population, increased selfing was associated with a marked reduction in population size and an increase in the frequency of selfing variants of the mid-styled morph. The significance of temporal variation in outcrossing frequency in plant populations is discussed in relation to its effect on population genetic structure and recent models of mating-system evolution.     

Floral sex ratio variation in hermaphrodites of gynodioeciousChionographis japonica var.kurohimensis Ajima et Satomi (Liliaceae)

Intrapopulation and interpopulation variations in floral sex ratio in hermaphrodites of gynodioeciousChionographis japonica var.kurohimensis (Liliaceae) were examined. The relative ratio of male flowers to total flowers (male and perfect flowers) decreased with plant size, suggesting size-dependent gender modification. The relative ratio of male flowers per population-basis is negatively correlated with the mean number of perfect flowers. Since the number of perfect flowers proportionally increased with plant size, populations showing low maleness consist of relatively bigger plants and are considered to be in high-quality environment. On the other hand, the relative ratio of male flowers per population basis is independent of female frequency in the population. Plasticity in gender expression probably plays an important role of maintenance of gynodioecy inC. japonica var.kurohimensis.     

佛山市禅城区小型兽类组成及多样性的时空变化

城市化导致的野生动物生境破碎化,会使野栖小型兽类更多聚集分布于城区斑块化的农区和公园生境中,因而其多样性组成及时空变化模式可能会与其他区域不同,了解这些模式对防控城区野栖小型兽类的危害具有重要支撑作用。本研究于2020年12月至2021年10月,分4个季节在佛山市禅城区3个公园和7处农区生境中以夹捕法调查小型兽类,比较了小型兽类的种类、密度和生态学指标的时空差异。共有效置夹1843夹次,捕获小型兽类2目2科4属7种共244只。其中劳亚食虫目（Eulipotyphla）的臭鼩（Suncus murinus）占总捕获动物的48.77%;啮齿目中黑缘齿鼠（Rattus andamanensis,20.90%）和卡氏小鼠（Mus caroli,18.03%）为优势鼠种,黑缘齿鼠为佛山市新增记录,卡氏小鼠为禅城区新增记录。4次调查总捕获率达13.28%±0.93%,12月的啮齿类捕获率显著低于4月;公园的总捕获率和啮齿类捕获率都比农区略高,而臭鼩捕获率比农区略低,但差异不显著。12月的物种丰富度和优势度指数最高,均匀度指数最低;4月的多样性指数最高,优势度指数最低;而10月的均匀度指数最高,物种...     

生态梯度轴(EGA)用于林木生态遗传的研究——CA方法估算EGA(CA_1)和EGA(r~2)

应用典型相关的原理和技术,将多元地理坐标和生态因子降维成1元,研究提出2个生态梯度轴(EGA);EGA(CA_1)和EGA(r~2)。通过白榆20个种源的2个EGA估算,它们与6个环境因子平均相关系数为0.8551和0.8804,复相关系数0.9998和0.9985,很好地综合了诸环境因子在对群体7个性状分析结果,EGA能很好描述梯度变异,证明了白榆种群属于连续变异模式。     

Temporal dynamics of ectomycorrhizal fungal communities in Shorea siamensis forest fragments

Investigating the dynamics of ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) communities in seasonally dry tropical forests is essential for sustainable management and for understanding the resilience of this forest type in future climate change scenarios. EMF communities in secondary forest fragments with Shorea siamensis as a single host tree species in central Thailand were sampled seasonally for 2.5 y. Ten EMF taxa were identified from ectomycorrhizal morphotypes, with/tomentella-thelephora and/russula-lactarius as the dominant taxa. Seasonal differences in EMF diversity were not detected; the dominant morphotypes were present in both seasons and their abundance varied. Most EMF taxa exhibited wide environmental ranges and only a few taxa were correlated with soil moisture. Seasonal dynamics of ectomycorrhizal colonization was likely influenced by climatic factors and the phenology of host species. Together, these results suggested that climatic variation may have a long-term and subtle influence on the composition of ectomycorrhizal communities.     

Genetic variation in three species in the Lampropholis delicata (Lacertilia: Scincidae) complex

The Lampropholis delicata complex consists of three closely related species, which have very different habitat requirements and geographic distributions. Percentage polymorphism and average heterozygosity per population are lowest in the species with the narrowest habitat requirements. Genetic differentiation between populations is also lowest in this species, which had a very limited and almost continuous distribution. For one species, which occurs in a very wide range of habitats, both natural and disturbed, genetic variability is compared between samples from disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Average heterozygosity is significantly lower in samples from disturbed than in those from undisturbed sites.     

THE FUNCTIONAL BASIS OF NATURAL SELECTION FOR VERTEBRAL TRAITS OF LARVAE IN THE STICKLEBACK GASTEROSTEUS ACULEATUS

Previous studies have demonstrated selective predation for vertebral traits of larvae in the stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. I tested the hypothesis that this selection results from a direct functional advantage to particular vertebral phenotypes by direct measurement of the burst swimming performance of larvae. Within a narrow window of lengths, burst speed did depend on vertebral phenotype. As in the previous predation experiments, performance was related more directly to the ratio of abdominal to caudal vertebrae (VR) than to the total number of vertebrae (VN), and the optimal VR decreased as larval length increased. Changes with length in the vertebral phenotype frequencies of wild larvae provided evidence of selection for VR and for VN in the wild. Larvae with particular VR increased in frequency in the wild at just those lengths when their relative performance was superior in the laboratory. The observed pattern of length-dependent selection for vertebral number provides an explanation for the widespread trends in vertebral number that occur among populations of related fishes.     

SELECTIVE PREDATION FOR VERTEBRAL PHENOTYPE IN GASTEROSTEUS ACULEATUS: REVERSAL IN THE DIRECTION OF SELECTION AT DIFFERENT LARVAL SIZES

Variation in the number of vertebrae is widespread in fishes, and is partly genetic in origin. The adaptive significance of this variation was tested by exposing larvae of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) to predation by sunfish (Lepomis gibbosus). Two vertebral characters were considered: the total number (VN) and the ratio of abdominal to caudal vertebrae (VR). Predation was selective for both characters, but selection was more directly related to VR than to VN. The direction of selection depended on larval length: as length increased, optimal VR decreased. Total selection for VR was a combination of direct selection and an indirect effect of selection acting on a correlated trait, the ratio of precaudal to caudal length. Direct and indirect selection were in opposing directions at a given larval length. Variation in vertebral number may be maintained in populations partly because the strength of selection is reduced by opposing directions between direct and indirect selection, and between total selection at different larval lengths.