Estimating the accuracy of polymerase chain reaction-based tests using endpoint dilution

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based tests for various microorganisms or target DNA sequences are generally acknowledged to be highly "sensitive," yet the concept of sensitivity is ill-defined in the literature on these tests. We propose that sensitivity should be expressed as a function of the number of target DNA molecules in the sample (or specificity, when the target number is 0). However, estimating this "sensitivity curve" is problematic, since it is difficult to construct samples with a fixed number of targets. Nonetheless, using serially diluted replicate aliquots of a known concentration of the target DNA sequence, we show that it is possible to disentangle random variations in the number of target DNA molecules from the underlying test sensitivity. We develop parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric (spline-based) models for the sensitivity curve. The methods are compared on a new test for M. genitalium.     

Contrasting patterns of radiation in African and Australian Restionaceae

The floras of the Mediterranean-climate areas of southern Africa and southwestern Australia are remarkably species rich. Because the two areas are at similar latitudes and in similar positions on their respective continents, they have probably had similar Cenozoic climatic histories. Here we test the prediction that the evolution of the species richness in the two areas followed a similar temporal progression by comparing the rates of lineage accumulation for African and Australian Restionaceae. Restionaceae (Poales) are typical and often dominant elements in the fynbos vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region of southern Africa and the kwongan vegetation of the Southwestern Floristic Province of Western Australia. The phylogeny of the family was estimated from combined datasets for rbcL and trnL-F sequences and a large morphological dataset; these datasets are largely congruent. The monophyly of Restionaceae is supported and a basal division into an African clade (approximately 350 species) and an Australian clade (146 species) corroborated. There is also support for a futher subdivision of these two large sister-clades, but the terminal resolution within the African clade is very weak. Fossil pollen records provided a minimum age of the common ancestor of Australian and African Restionaceae as 64-71 million years ago, and this date was used to calibrate a molecular clock. A molecular clock was rejected by a likelihood ratio test; therefore, rate changes between the lineages were smoothed using nonparametric rate smoothing. The rate-corrected ages were used to construct a plot of lineages through time. During the Palaeogene the Australian lineage diversity increased consistent with the predictions of the constant birthrate model, while the African lineage diversity showed a dramatic increase in diversification rate in the Miocene. Incomplete sampling obscures the patterns in the Neogene, but extending the trends to the modern extant diversity suggests that this acceleration in the speciation rate continued in the African clade, whereas the Australian clade retained a constant diversification rate. The substantial morphological and anatomical similarity between the African and Australian Restionaceae appear to preclude morphological innovations as possible explanations for the intercontinental differences. Most likely these differences are due to the greater geographical extent and ecological variation in temperate Australia than temperate Africa, which might have provided refugia for basal Restionaceae lineages, whereas the more mountainous terrain of southern Africa might have provided the selective regimes for a more rapid, recent speciation.     

Models of central pattern generators for quadruped locomotion I. Primary gaits

In this paper we continue the analysis of a network of symmetrically coupled cells modeling central pattern generators for quadruped locomotion proposed by Golubitsky, Stewart, Buono, and Collins. By a cell we mean a system of ordinary differential equations and by a coupled cell system we mean a network of identical cells with coupling terms. We have three main results in this paper. First, we show that the proposed network is the simplest one modeling the common quadruped gaits of walk, trot, and pace. In doing so we prove a general theorem classifying spatio-temporal symmetries of periodic solutions to equivariant systems of differential equations. We also specialize this theorem to coupled cell systems. Second, this paper focuses on primary gaits; that is, gaits that are modeled by output signals from the central pattern generator where each cell emits the same waveform along with exact phase shifts between cells. Our previous work showed that the network is capable of producing six primary gaits. Here, we show that under mild assumptions on the cells and the coupling of the network, primary gaits can be produced from Hopf bifurcation by varying only coupling strengths of the network. Third, we discuss the stability of primary gaits and exhibit these solutions by performing numerical simulations using the dimensionless Morris-Lecar equations for the cell dynamics.     

改良PAS染色法在急性肝损伤中的应用

目的：观察改良肝脏糖原PAS染色法,并观察肝脏糖原染色在急性肝损伤中的应用。方法：复制CCl4急性肝损伤模型,首次100％CCl43 mL／kg皮下注射,此后50％CCl4橄榄油溶液2 mL／kg每周2次共4次皮下注射,诱导大鼠急性肝损伤模型。计算大鼠肝体比;HE染色观察肝组织炎症病理;试剂盒检测血清丙氨酸氨基转移酶（ALT）、天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶（AST）、总胆红素（TBil）、白蛋白（Alb）。肝脏常规PAS染色与改良PAS染色观察肝糖原染色。结果：与正常组相比,模型组ALT、AST活性与TBil含量明显升高（P＜0．05）,Alb含量明显降低（P＜0．05）;HE染色示,模型组肝小叶结构排列紊乱,肝细胞脂肪变、气球样变明显。常规PAS染色,正常组肝组织PAS染色阳性占肝脏面积为32．38％±5．50％;与正常组相比,模型组肝组织PAS阳性染色明显减少（P＜0．01）,占肝脏面积为8．60％±3．34％。改良PAS染色提示,正常组肝脏可见大量PAS阳性染色,占肝脏面积为75．50％±9．02％;与正常组相比,模型组肝组织PAS阳性染色明显减少（P＜0．01）,占肝脏面积为17．61％±3．53％。在空白对照组与模型肝组织中,肝糖原改良PAS染色阳性率明显高于常规PAS染色法（P＜0．01）。改良PAS染色肝糖原阳性染色面积更真实反映急性肝损伤程度。结论：改良肝脏糖原PAS染色法有助于急性肝损伤程度评估。     

Time‐Dependent Predictive Accuracy in the Presence of Competing Risks

Summary Competing risks arise naturally in time‐to‐event studies. In this article, we propose time‐dependent accuracy measures for a marker when we have censored survival times and competing risks. Time‐dependent versions of sensitivity or true positive (TP) fraction naturally correspond to consideration of either cumulative (or prevalent) cases that accrue over a fixed time period, or alternatively to incident cases that are observed among event‐free subjects at any select time. Time‐dependent (dynamic) specificity (1–false positive (FP)) can be based on the marker distribution among event‐free subjects. We extend these definitions to incorporate cause of failure for competing risks outcomes. The proposed estimation for cause‐specific cumulative TP/dynamic FP is based on the nearest neighbor estimation of bivariate distribution function of the marker and the event time. On the other hand, incident TP/dynamic FP can be estimated using a possibly nonproportional hazards Cox model for the cause‐specific hazards and riskset reweighting of the marker distribution. The proposed methods extend the time‐dependent predictive accuracy measures of Heagerty, Lumley, and Pepe (2000, Biometrics 56, 337–344) and Heagerty and Zheng (2005, Biometrics 61, 92–105).     

T cell development in the thymus: from periodic seeding to constant output

T cell development occurs in the thymus throughout life. Recent experimental findings show that the seeding of the thymus by multi-potent stem cells from the bone marrow is periodic rather than continuous, as previously assumed. However it is well known that the output rate of cells from the thymus is relatively constant. A quantitative model is used to verify the current hypotheses regarding T cell development in the steady state mouse thymus. The results show that the thymus could be at a periodic steady state with out-of-phase thymocyte populations. Experiments to examine possible periodic fluctuations in the thymus are proposed and methods for further analysis are outlined.     

Under-smoothed kernel confidence intervals for the hazard ratio based on censored data

In cancer clinical trials, it is often of interest in estimating the ratios of hazard rates at some specific time points during the study from two independent populations. In this paper, we consider nonparametric confidence interval procedures for the hazard ratio based on kernel estimates for the hazard rates with under-smoothing bandwidths. Two methods are used to derive the confidence intervals: one based on the asymptotic normality of the ratio of the kernel estimates for the hazard rates in two populations and another through Fieller's Theorem. The performances of the proposed confidence intervals are evaluated through Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to the analysis of data from a clinical trial on early breast cancer.     

Wing morphology and flight behavior of pelecaniform seabirds

The selective pressures associated with flight are significant factors in shaping the morphology of volant forms. Tropical seabirds are of particular interest because of their long foraging bouts, which can last hundreds of kilometers in search of unpredictable (spatially and temporally) resources. Here, we contrast wing loading (WL), aspect ratio (AR), and planform shape among five pelecaniform seabirds and correlate morphological diversity with known differences in flight strategies. Overall, WL and AR scaled with body mass. The Great Frigratebird had lower WL than that predicted, whereas the Red-tailed Tropicbird had higher WL than that predicted. The tropicbird also exhibited a lower AR than that predicted. Visualization of planform shape was accomplished by using Thin-plate spline relative warp analysis (TPS/RWA), and three major regions of variations were discovered: wing base, mid-wing, and distal wing/wing tip. As expected, the three boobies were more similar than either the tropicbird or the frigatebird. The tropicbird had a broader distal wing and more rounded wing tip, associated with its greater use of flapping flight. The frigatebird showed the greatest deviation in the distal wing and wing tip associated with the high maneuverability required for aerial pursuit and kleptoparasitism. By using TPS/RWA, important differences were detected in planform shape that would have otherwise gone unnoticed when using only WL and AR. These differences correlated strongly with parameters such as maneuverability, flapping, and soaring flight.     

一类无穷时滞微分系统的周期解和全局吸引性

考虑如下具有无穷时滞的微分系统:x′(t)=A(t,x(t))x(t) (integral from -∞to 0)f(t,s,x(s t))ds (sum from i=1 to p) fi(t,x(t-T_i(t)))的周期解.利用重合度理论和构造适当的Lyapunov泛函得到上述系统周期解存在性和全局吸引性的充分条件,推广了已有的结论,得到了新的结果.