Worker brood survival in honeybees

The brood survival in honeybee workers was measured in order to obtain the data basic to the preparation of life tables. Under normal condition, that is, at the center of brood area, the survival is high. The survival/stage function runs 100.0 eggs, 94.2 unsealed brood (=feeding larvae), 86.4 sealed brood (=post-feeding larvae and pupae) and 85.1 adults. The total duration of immature stages is 20 days in 87.1%, 21 days in 8.3% and 19 days or more than 22 days in the residual fraction of successfully emerging workers. The survival remarkably decreases at peripheral areas within the hive. Various factors affecting the brood survival are discussed and the importance of a dense worker cover on the brood area is stressed in relation to the maintenance of thermal conditions optimal to the brood. The occurrence of one factor, which is not expected in solitary animals, the self-control of population by egg eating, is pointed out.     

Influence of arginine vasotocin on the estrogen-induced surge of LH and FSH in adult ovariectomized rats

The effects of arginine vasotocin (AVT) on the estrogen-induced surge of LH and FSH were examined in ovariectomized adult rats. Two and one-half weeks after ovariectomy, animals that were treated with a single subcutaneous (s.c.) dose of 5 μg of estradiol benzoate (EB) exhibited a surge of LH and FSH at 1700 and 1900 hours, respectively, two days after the administration of the EB. AVT, antidiuretic hormone (ADH) and oxytocin (OT) were administered s.c. in 1 μg dose every 4 hours beginning at 1500 hours on day 1 after EB treatment and then every 2 hours beginning at 1200 hours on day 2 after EB treatment. AVT completely prevented the LH surge at 1700 hours but was without effect on the FSH surge at 1900 hours on the day 2 after steroid treatment. Neither ADH nor OT had any significant effect on the afternoon surge of these hormones. It is postulated that AVT may interfere with the mechanisms mediating the estrogen-induced afternoon surge of LH in ovariectomized rats.     

三峡库区残存的常绿阔叶林及其意义

三峡库区世坪森林公园的常绿阔叶林处在中亚热带北部,群落中４８．６５％的物种具热带性质,３５．１４％的物种具温带性质;３３．７８％的物种集中在忍冬科（Ｃａｐｒｉｆｏｌｉａｃｅａｅ）、壳斗科（Ｆａｇａｃｅａｅ）等７个科,全部３８个科中８１．５８％的科仅有１～２种植物在群落中出现;群落含有具先锋意义的伴生种。这些都反映出该地带的次生常绿阔叶林的一般特点。栲树（Ｃａｓｔａｎｏｐｓｉｓｆａｒｇｅｓｉ）的重要值在乔木层和灌木层均居第一,特别是在乔木层该值显著高于其它种,说明此处的常绿阔叶林是以栲树为建群种的单优群落,而且栲树种群径级结构符合其正常发育规律,因而群落相对稳定。该群落对于中亚热带地带性植被的生态学和生物多样性的基础研究具有重要意义,对于退化生态系统的恢复和三峡水库的水源涵养具有典范作用。     

Co-occurrence of species with various geographical ranges, and correlation between area size and number of species in geographical scale

Co-occurrence of species of various geographical ranges is important to correct endemism evaluation. This co-occurrence is shown as non-hazardous. Influence of area size on species richness is assumed to be different with respect to endemic and non-endemic species. The territory of Israel and Sinai is subdivided into twenty biotic provinces. We segregated three hundred and twenty-five tenebrionid species inhabiting this territory into endemic, regional and ubiquitous species. Regression of the number of endemic species on the number of regional species is non-linear. Two distinct regression lines correspond to hot and cool areas. The number of ubiquitous species depends positively on numbers of both endemic and regional species, and negatively on their product. Ubiquitous species are predominantly synanthropic, and inability to tolerate competition with other tenebrionids is assumed as the basis of numerical relationships with other species. Correlation between numbers of endemic and non-endemic species of bird and mammal and size of area is analysed at the broad geographical scale. Relationships between area size evaluation and the numbers of endemic and non-endemic species are always different. The square root of the area km² is always more important in species richness determination than area itself. This variable is a linear characteristic of the area and its significance is discussed. Possible ecological interactions between species of various geographical ranges are also considered. A new method of evaluation of the level of faunal endemism is proposed.     

Fire management in Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area: Ecosystem restoration using Indigenous‐style fire regimes?

Summary In many natural areas, changes in fire regimes since European settlement have resulted in adverse impacts on elements of biological diversity that survived millennia of land management by Indigenous people. Some of the rainforest and alpine elements that depend on south‐west Tasmania’s World Heritage Area have been in decline since European settlement of Tasmania due to an increase in the incidence of landscape‐scale fires in the period 1850–1940. Some of the buttongrass moorland elements that also depend on the region are in decline or impending decline because of a decreased incidence and/or size of burns since 1940. Will an Indigenous‐style fire regime serve the interests of biological diversity? We examine this question in the context of the fire ecology and fire history of south‐west Tasmania. From this assessment we argue that a return to Indigenous‐ style burning, modified to address contemporary issues such as the prevention of unplanned ignition, suppression of wildfires and burning to favour rare and threatened species may help to reverse trends towards ecosystem degradation in this region.     

Consequences for seed distributions of intra-crop variation in wing-loading of wind-dispersed species

We used a computer simulation to quantify how intra-crop variation in wing-loading in a wind-dispersed species affects the seed distribution around a parent plant. We used a data set of seed distributions generated from a previous field study using artificial fruits varying in seed mass or fruit area dispersed from a tower into a tropical forest. For this study, the spatial distribution from each hypothetical parent's fruit crop of 1000 was calculated by randomly drawing locations of dispersed fruits from the previous data base. Three parents with contrasting fruit crops were used to test two hypotheses: 1) Increasing within-parent variance in wing-loading (= weight/area), while maintaining the mean, will lead to an increase in the area and uniformity of the seed distribution, without changing the mean dispersal distance. 2) Decreasing within-parent mean wing-loading, (which also decreases variance), will lead to an increase in mean dispersal distance, area, and uniformity of the seed distribution. The hypotheses were tested under four wind speeds.Increasing variance in wing-loading resulted in increasing the area and uniformity of density of the seed distribution without changing mean dispersal distance. Decreasing mean and variance in wing-loading resulted in increasing the area and uniformity of density of the seed distribution, as well as increasing the mean dispersal distance. Similar results occurred whether the differences in wing-loading arose by altering seed mass or fruit area. The effect of wind speed was consistently greater than the effect of parent. Generally, the same pattern of parent effects on seed distributions occurred, regardless of wind condition.The effects on seed distributions differed for alterations in mean versus variance, specifically in whether mean dispersal distance was increased. How selection may act on intra-crop mean and variance in wing-loading will depend on additional factors, e.g. the relative importance of distance, area, and density on seedling recruitment and the relative costs for crop size and seedling establishment of making fruit crops of a given mean and variance.     

Evaluating the improvement in diagnostic utility from adding new predictors

Multiple diagnostic tests and risk factors are commonly available for many diseases. This information can be either redundant or complimentary. Combining them may improve the diagnostic/predictive accuracy, but also unnecessarily increase complexity, risks, and/or costs. The improved accuracy gained by including additional variables can be evaluated by the increment of the area under (AUC) the receiver‐operating characteristic curves with and without the new variable(s). In this study, we derive a new test statistic to accurately and efficiently determine the statistical significance of this incremental AUC under a multivariate normality assumption. Our test links AUC difference to a quadratic form of a standardized mean shift in a unit of the inverse covariance matrix through a properly linear transformation of all diagnostic variables. The distribution of the quadratic estimator is related to the multivariate Behrens–Fisher problem. We provide explicit mathematical solutions of the estimator and its approximate non‐central F‐distribution, type I error rate, and sample size formula. We use simulation studies to prove that our new test maintains prespecified type I error rates as well as reasonable statistical power under practical sample sizes. We use data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures as an application example to illustrate our method.     

Effects of ecogeographic variables on genetic variation in montane mammals: implications for conservation in a global warming scenario

Aim Evolutionary theory predicts that levels of genetic variation in island populations will be positively correlated with island area and negatively correlated with island isolation. These patterns have been empirically established for oceanic islands, but little is known about the determinants of variation on habitat islands. The goals of this study were twofold. Our first aim was to test whether published patterns of genetic variation in mammals occurring on montane habitat islands in the American Southwest conformed to expectations based on evolutionary theory. The second aim of this research was to develop simple heuristic models to predict changes in genetic variation that may occur in these populations as a result of reductions in available mountaintop habitat in response to global warming. Location Habitat islands of conifer forest on mountaintops in the American Southwest. Methods Relationships between island area and isolation with measures of allozyme variation in four species of small mammal, namely the least chipmunk (Tamias minimus), Colorado chipmunk (Tamias quadrivittatus), red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and Mexican woodrat (Neotoma mexicana), were determined using correlation and regression techniques. Significant relationships between island area and genetic variation were used to develop three distinct statistical models with which to predict changes in genetic variation following reduction in insular habitat area arising from global warming. Results Patterns of genetic variation in each species conformed to evolutionary predictions. In general, island area was the most important determinant of heterozygosity, while island isolation was the most important determinant of polymorphism and allelic diversity. The heuristic models predicted widespread reductions in genetic variation, the extent of which depended on the population and model considered. Main conclusions The results support a generalized pattern of genetic variation for any species with an insular distribution, with reduced variation in smaller, more isolated populations. We predict widespread reductions in genetic variation in isolated populations of montane small mammals in the American Southwest as a result of global warming. We conclude that climate‐induced reductions in the various dimensions of genetic variation may increase the probability of population extinction in both the short and long term.     

A modified sign test for comparing paired ROC curves

We develop a permutation test for assessing a difference in the areas under the curve (AUCs) in a paired setting where both modalities are given to each diseased and nondiseased subject. We propose that permutations be made between subjects specifically by shuffling the diseased/nondiseased labels of the subjects within each modality. As these permutations are made within modality, the permutation test is valid even if both modalities are measured on different scales. We show that our permutation test is a sign test for the symmetry of an underlying discrete distribution whose size remains valid under the assumption of equal AUCs. We demonstrate the operating characteristics of our test via simulation and show that our test is equal in power to a permutation test recently proposed by Bandos and others (2005).