An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Environmental and genetic control of crassulacean acid metabolism in two crassulacean species and an F1 hybrid with differing biomass δ13C values

Abstract The growth, biomass δ¹³C values, and ability to accumulate titratable acidity at night were compared in eight environmental treatments for Cremnophila linguifolia, Sedum greggii, and their F₁ hybrid. In the phytotron, differences in treatment daylength, day/night temperature and water availability were all found to have effects on total plant dry weight, nocturnal accumulation of titratable acidity and biomass δ¹³C value of at least some of the genotypes. However, there were differences between the genotypes both in the magnitude and direction of response of the phenotypic properties to the treatment variables. The phytotron δ¹³C values ranged from -12.9 to -19.2‰ for C. linguifolia, from -22.2 to -33.4‰ for S. greggii, and from -19.2 to -24.9‰ for the hybrid. After with-holding water for 76 h both C. linguifolia and the hybrid had midday Ψ_leaf values of -0.23 MPa; however, S. greggii had a value of -1.05 MPa. In contrast to past observations of other species, the daily watered plants of C. linguifolia had less negative δ¹³C values than did the plants watered only weekly.     

How Can the Eco‐efficiency of a Region be Measured and Monitored?

The concept of eco-efficiency is commonly referred to as a business link to sustainable development. In this article, ecoefficiency is examined at a regional level as an approach to promoting the competitiveness of economic activities in the Finnish Kymenlaakso region and mitigating their harmful impacts on the environment. The aim is to develop appropriate indicators for monitoring changes in the eco-efficiency of the region. A starting point is to produce indicators for the environmental and economic dimensions of regional development and use them for measuring regional eco-efficiency. The environmental impact indicators are based on a life-cycle assessment method, producing different types of environmental impact indicators: pressure indicators (e.g., emissions of CO₂), impact category indicators (e.g., CO₂ equivalents in the case of climate change), and a total impact indicator (aggregating different impact category indicator results into a single value). Environmental impact indicators based on direct material input, total material input, and total material requirement of the Kymenlaakso region are also assessed. The economic indicators used are the gross domestic product, the value added, and the output of the main economic sectors of Kymenlaakso. In the eco-efficiency assessment, the economic and environmental impact indicators are monitored in the same graph. In a few cases eco-efficiency ratios can also be calculated (the economic indicators are divided by the environmental indicators). Output (= value added + intermediate consumption) is used as an economic indicator related to the environmental impact indicators, which also cover the upstream processes of the region's activities. In the article, we also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of using the different environmental impact indicators.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Numerical simulation of thermal bone necrosis during cementation of femoral prostheses

The implant of a femoral prosthesis is a critical process because of the relatively high temperature values reached at the bone/cement interface during the cementation of the infibulum. In fact, the cement is actually a polymer that polymerizes in situ generating heat. Moreover, the conversion of monomer into polymer is never 100%; this is dangerous because of the toxicity of the monomer. In this paper, we present a 3-D axisymmetric mathematical model capable of taking into account both the geometry of the implant and the chemical/physical properties of the cement. This model, together with its numerical simulation, thus represents a useful tool to set up the optimal conditions for the new materials developed in this orthopaedic field. The real complex geometry is assumed to be a bone/cement/metallic system having cylindrical symmetry, thus allowing the model to be reduced to two space variables. The cementation process is described by the Fourier heat equation coupled with a suitable polymerization kinetics. The numerical approximation is accomplished by semi-implicit finite differences in time and finite elements in space with numerical quadrature. The full discrete scheme amounts to solve linear positive definite symmetric systems preceded by an elementwise algebraic computation. We present various numerical simulations which confirm some critical aspects of this orthopaedic fixing technique such as thermal bone necrosis and the presence of unreacted residual monomer.This work was partially supported by MURST (Fondi per la Ricerca Scientifica 40%) and CNR (IAN, Contract 880032601, and Progetto Finalizzato Sistemi Informatici e Calcolo Parallelo, Sottoprogetto Calcolo Scientifico per Grandi Sistemi) of Italy     

Body shape and differences between species

The variation of body shape among prosimians is reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the selective advantages, that is the mechanical reasons, to which variants of the locomotor apparatus can be traced back. There are differences found in the cheiridia, but at present they cannot be explained in terms of mechanics; there is nearly no knowledge about the mechanical meaning of their diversity. Myological characteristics of taxa can be explained mechanically, but this has not yet been done. Well known are variations of body proportions. These discriminate higher taxa, and are largely coincident with the often-used locomotor categories. In spite of this, there are only few sound arguments about the real biomechanic value of characteristic proportions for a given locomotor mode. What is known on this field, is reviewed. Progress can be made only, if the mechanical conditions, set by postural behavior and locomotion, are understood completely. The subtle distinctions between lower taxonomic units can normally be identified only on the basis of detailed and quantified analyses of movements on one hand, and of biometrics on the other. In the few cases in which such studies have been made, the differences of morphology fit to the mechanical requirements of locomotion which also differ only in quantitative details.     

The evolution of phage lysis timing

Summary The effect of host quantity and host quality on the evolution of phage lysis timing is analysed using marginal value theorem of optimal foraging theory. Both factors have been shown to strongly influence the latent period. A high host density selects for short latent period, which is the same result as previous investigators have found. A good host quality also promotes a short latent period. However, elasticity analysis shows that these two factors exert their influences under different sets of conditions. When host density is low, the host density is more important in determining the length of latent period, whereas when host density is high, the host quality is more important.     

Wave-separation in complex systems. Application to brain-signals

A departure from single-system dynamics, that may arise in characterizing self-organized dynamics of complex systems, is dealt with by using the Karhunen-Loève expansion of the trajectory matrix to decompose an experimental signal in a sum of spectral features. For an electroencephalographic -signal, a separation of waves and extraction of additive sub-signals are achieved, each sub-signal covering a well-bounded and physiologically meaningful frequency range. From the subsignals, an attractor that vanishes on phase-randomizing the data is characterized, under conditions where none was found for the recorded signal.