1957-2007年云南省森林火险变化

当前以变暖为主要特征的气候变化已对全球林火的发生产生重要影响.本文基于日气象数据(气温、降水量、空气相对湿度、风速),按照加拿大火险天气指数的计算方法,计算了云南省1957-2007年间每日的森林火险天气指数,分析了该省50年来森林火险的变化趋势.结果表明:云南省的火险期为上年11月至当年6月,持续期约8个月;林火数据(林火数量、过火面积和受害森林面积)与火险天气指数的相关性显著,半腐层湿度码(DMC)的火险期平均值和火险期严峻度(SSR)可作为不同火险期火险状况比较的良好指标.1957-2007年云南省森林火险状况呈现2种变化趋势:1)总体上周期性变化趋势明显,在周期性变化的同时呈上升趋势,表现为1991-2007年的火险状况比1961-1990年的火险状况略有升高;2)1991-2007年各火险期火险状况的波动性下降,火险状况异常严峻的火险期数量比1961-1990年减少.

Abstract：

Climate warming has already made great impact on forest fires. Based on the daily me-teorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed), and by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index calculation formula, the daily forest fire weather indices (FWIs) of Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 were calculated, and through the statistical analysis of FWIs, the forest fire trends in this province over the past 50 years were studied. In the past 50 years, the forest fire season in Yunnan Province was from previous year November to current year June, lasting 8 months. Fire data (fire numbers, burned area, and burned forest area) had sig-nificant relationships with fire weather indices. The average daily duff moisture code (DMC) in whole fire season and the seasonal severity rating (SSR) were the good indices to evaluate the fire danger conditions among different fire seasons. The forest fire danger in Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 showed two change trends. One showed a clear cyclical change and a weak upward trend, i. e. , the fire danger conditions in 1991-2007 was slightly severer than that in 1961-1990 ; and the another was that the fluctuation of forest fire danger conditions among different fire seasons decreased in 1991-2007, and the number of abnormal severe fire seasons was less than that in 1961-1990.     

Reduced fire blight susceptibility in apple cultivars using a high‐efficiency CRISPR/Cas9‐FLP/FRT‐based gene editing system

The bacterium Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight disease in apple, triggers its infection through the DspA/E effector which interacts with the apple susceptibility protein MdDIPM4. In this work, MdDIPM4 knockout has been produced in two Malus × domestica susceptible cultivars using the CRISPR/Cas9 system delivered via Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Fifty‐seven transgenic lines were screened to identify CRISPR/Cas9‐induced mutations. An editing efficiency of 75% was obtained. Seven edited lines with a loss‐of‐function mutation were inoculated with the pathogen. Highly significant reduction in susceptibility was observed compared to control plants. Sequencing of five potential off‐target sites revealed no mutation event. Moreover, our construct contained a heat‐shock inducible FLP/FRT recombination system designed specifically to remove the T‐DNA harbouring the expression cassettes for CRISPR/Cas9, the marker gene and the FLP itself. Six plant lines with reduced susceptibility to the pathogen were heat‐treated and screened by real‐time PCR to quantify the exogenous DNA elimination. The T‐DNA removal was further validated by sequencing in one plant line. To our knowledge, this work demonstrates for the first time the development and application of a CRISPR/Cas9‐FLP/FRT gene editing system for the production of edited apple plants carrying a minimal trace of exogenous DNA.     

浙江省1991~2006年森林火灾释放黑碳量的估算

黑碳气溶胶不仅造成环境污染危害人的健康,同时通过吸收太阳和大气辐射产生的辐射强迫对全球和区域产生影响,成为影响全球变暖的仅次于CO2的重要成分.在全球变暖及大气中CO2浓度不断升高的趋势下,各国开始采用造林再造林来减缓全球变暖的趋势,随着森林面积和林内生物量的不断增加,以及森林火灾的频发,林火带来的黑碳排放量也不容忽视.然而在世界上大部分地区,这方面的工作却很少被人所关注.根据1991～2006年浙江省森林火灾统计资料和浙江省各种森林类型地上生物量的数据,计算出了浙江省每年的森林火灾导致的生物量损失量.同时采取释放因子法,对1991～2006浙江省每年森林火灾释放的黑碳量进行了估算.其中1995年和2000年森林火灾释放的黑碳总量分别是38.4、97.2 t,占整个浙江省黑碳释放总量中的比重分别是0.12%、0.17%,对于区域大气质量有一定的影响.     

比较逻辑斯蒂与地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归模型在福建林火发生的适用性

林火预测预报是科学有效进行林火管理的前提,是林业管理部门和科研工作者的广泛关注的领域。逻辑斯蒂回归(Logistic Regression,LR)是目前国内外广泛应用于森林火灾预测的模型方法,然而近年来有学者发现该方法没有充分考虑林火影响因子的空间相关性和异质性,从而导致模型拟合结果偏差。地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归(Geographically weighted logistic regression,GWR)模型考虑到了模型变量之间的空间相关性,有效提高的模型的拟合能力。为探讨GWLR模型在福建林火预测上的适用性,本研究应用LR和GWLR两种方法分别建立福建省森林火灾与气象因子的预测模型,通过模型拟合能力对比,判断在GWLR的适用性。研究以2000—2005年福建地区森林火灾卫星火点数据和每日气象因子为基础,将全样本分为60%的建模数据和40%的校验数据,并重复5次,建立5个样本组。选择在5个样本组中3个及以上表现显著的变量进入最终模型。研究结果表明GWLR在模型拟合度、模型残差、空间自相关性以及预测准确率等方面均优于LR模型,说明充分考虑模型变量的空间异质性有助于提高模型的预测精度,同时也验证了GWLR在福建地区林火预测上的适应性。此外,模型参数结果显示,"日最高地表气温"、"日最低地表气温"、"日平均风速"、"24小时降水量"、"日最高本站气压"、"日照时数"、"日最高气温"和"日最小相对湿度"8个因子对福建省林火发生有显著影响,研究结论为福建地区林火预测预报提供了新的方法。     

火烧对黔中喀斯特山地马尾松林分的影响

采用样地比较法在黔中喀斯特山地上覆第四纪粘土的马尾松人工次生林内,研究了林火对马尾松林分的影响,结果表明过火马尾松林不同部位的受害率为树皮(95.51%)＞树枝(71.49%)＞树冠(62.95%),不同层片的植物死亡率为草本层(100.00%)＞灌木层(30.43%)＞乔木层(29.09%)。马尾松树皮受害率不因径级而变化、树枝和树冠受害率及植株死亡率随径级增高而降低,灌木层物种或全部死亡、或部分死亡、或全部存活,草本层物种或死亡、或萌生。过火马尾松林地生物量的潜在损失量(68.7755 t/hm²)＞直接损失量(12.1818 t/hm²)、直接损失率22.41%,直接损失量中乔木层(6.9382 t/hm²)＞枯物层(3.3441 t/hm²)＞灌木层(2.4964 t/hm²)＞草本层(0.8861 t/hm²),直接损失率中草本层或枯物层(100.00%)＞灌木层(33.36%)＞乔木层(23.59%)。过火马尾松林不同层片的Patrick指数、Gleason指数、Simpson指数和Hurlbert指数损失量为草本层＞灌木层＞乔木层、潜在损失量＞直接损失量,直接损失率中乔木层的相应值为14.29%、14.29%、17.85%、-11.29%,灌木层的相应值为26.76%、26.76%、37.63%、-18.53%,草本层为100.00%。     

Postfire response of North American boreal forest net primary productivity analyzed with satellite observations

Fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and has been shown to release significant amounts of carbon (C) to the atmosphere through combustion. However, less is known about the effects on ecosystems following fire, which include reduced productivity and changes in decomposition in the decade immediately following the disturbance. In this study, we assessed the impact of fire on net primary productivity (NPP) in the North American boreal forest using a 17‐year record of satellite NDVI observations at 8‐ km spatial resolution together with a light‐use efficiency model. We identified 61 fire scars in the satellite observations using digitized fire burn perimeters from a database of large fires. We studied the postfire response of NPP by analyzing the most impacted pixel within each burned area. NPP decreased in the year following the fire by 60–260 g C m^?2 yr^?1 (30–80%). By comparing pre‐ and postfire observations, we estimated a mean NPP recovery period for boreal forests of about 9 years, with substantial variability among fires. We incorporated this behavior into a carbon cycle model simulation to demonstrate these effects on net ecosystem production. The disturbance resulted in a release of C to the atmosphere during the first 8 years, followed by a small, but long‐lived, sink lasting 150 years. Postfire net emissions were three times as large as from a model run without changing NPP. However, only small differences in the C cycle occurred between runs after 8 years due to the rapid recovery of NPP. We conclude by discussing the effects of fire on the long‐term continental trends in satellite NDVI observed across boreal North America during the 1980s and 1990s.     

1996—2005年北京城市生态质量动态

从生态要素、生态过程、生态功能和生态问题4个主题出发,构建了包含16个指标的北京城市生态质量评价指标体系,并分别采用熵权法、最差状态法和最佳状态法对指标进行赋权,通过加权平均法构建了北京城市生态要素指数（EEI）、生态过程指数（EPI）、生态功能指数（EFI）、生态问题指数（EDI）和综合生态质量指数（CEI）,用以评价1996—2005年北京城市生态质量动态变化.结果表明：研究期间,北京城市EEI无明显改善,持续维持在远离理想点的水平;EPI和EFI改善显著,由1996年的远离理想点到2005年接近于理想点的水平;EDI的年度波动较大,普遍远离理想点;CEI得到持续改善,但离理想点依然有一定距离.当人均国内生产总值（GDP）小于3 000美元时,EPI、EFI和CEI随GDP的增长而快速增大,改善显著,当人均GDP超过3 000美元后,EPI、EFI和CEI随GDP增长而增大的速度减慢;EEI和EDI受人均GDP的影响较小,主要受限于自然条件及全球和区域环境的变化.     

Simulation of forest net primary production and the effects of fire disturbance in Northeast China

 森林净初级生产力(NPP)是衡量陆地碳源/汇的重要参数, 准确地估算森林生态系统的NPP, 同时通过引入干扰因子以期更加完整地描述生态学过程及其响应是目前森林生态系统碳循环研究的重点。因此, 该研究基于北方生态系统生产力(BEPS)模型, 结合遥感数据和气象数据等模拟2003年东北林区NPP; 将BEPS模型模拟的结果作为整合陆地生态系统碳收支(InTEC)模型的参考年数据, 模拟东北林区1901–2008年的NPP, 并在InTEC模型中加入林火干扰数据, 模拟大兴安岭地区1966–2008年的森林NPP。结果显示: 在1901年, 东北林区NPP平均值仅为278.8 g C·m^–2·a^–1, 到了1950年, NPP平均值增加到338.5 g C·m^–2·a^–1, 2008年NPP平均值进一步增加到378.4 g C·m^–2·a^–1。其中长白山地区的NPP平均值始终最高, 大兴安岭次之, 小兴安岭始终最低。到了2008年, 大、小兴安岭和长白山地区的NPP平均值都有较大涨幅, 其中涨幅最高的是长白山地区, 达到200–300 g C·m^–2·a^–1; 东北三省中, 黑龙江和吉林的NPP平均值和总量都比较高, 辽宁相对较低, 但相比于1901年的涨幅最高, 达到70%; 重大火灾(100–1000 hm²)对NPP的影响不是很大, 而特大火灾(>1 000 hm²)的影响比较大, 使NPP下降幅度达到10%左右, 其他火灾年份, NPP增长迅速并保持在较高水平; 对火灾面积在100 000 hm²以上的4个年份的NPP进行分析, 发现NPP平均值都大幅度下降, 其中1987年下降幅度最大, 为11%以上。     

红火蚁对我国一些生物潜在影响的初步分析

通过分析国际上对红火蚁影响生境中其他生物的研究成果,认为红火蚁主要通过以下3种方式危害其他生物:(1)攻击、捕食刚孵化的地栖性卵生动物个体,或者以群体力量捕食昆虫幼虫、成虫等;(2)竞争有限的食物资源,导致其他物种因为缺乏足够食物供给而种群数量减少甚至灭绝;(3)通过叮咬而使得某些动物存活率降低,改变生境,甚至弃巢外逃,或者因为受攻击活动量加大而增加被捕食的几率。同时初步分析在《国家重点保护野生动物名录》中列举的379种野生动物名录中,有22种鸟类(占9.6%)、1种两栖类(占14%)、所有的18种爬行类(占100%)可能因为红火蚁的入侵导致种群数量下降甚至灭绝。