Divergence time uncertainty and historical biogeography reconstruction – an example from Urophylleae (Rubiaceae)

Aim When hypotheses of historical biogeography are evaluated, age estimates of individual nodes in a phylogeny often have a direct impact on what explanation is concluded to be most likely. Confidence intervals of estimated divergence times obtained in molecular dating analyses are usually very large, but the uncertainty is rarely incorporated in biogeographical analyses. The aim of this study is to use the group Urophylleae, which has a disjunct pantropical distribution, to explore how the uncertainty in estimated divergence times affects conclusions in biogeographical analysis. Two hypotheses are evaluated: (1) long‐distance dispersal from Africa to Asia and the Neotropics, and (2) a continuous distribution in the boreotropics, probably involving migration across the North Atlantic Land Bridge, followed by isolation in equatorial refugia. Location Tropical and subtropical Asia, tropical Africa, and central and southern tropical America. Methods This study uses parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal DNA data from 56 ingroup species, beast molecular dating and a Bayesian approach to dispersal–vicariance analysis (Bayes‐DIVA) to reconstruct the ancestral area of the group, and the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis method to test biogeographical hypotheses. Results When the two models of geographic range evolution were compared using the maximum likelihood (ML) tree with mean estimates of divergence times, boreotropical migration was indicated to be much more likely than long‐distance dispersal. Analyses of a large sample of dated phylogenies did, however, show that this result was not consistent. The age estimate of one specific node had a major impact on likelihood values and on which model performed best. The results show that boreotropical migration provides a slightly better explanation of the geographical distribution patterns of extant Urophylleae than long‐distance dispersal. Main conclusions This study shows that results from biogeographical analyses based on single phylogenetic trees, such as a ML or consensus tree, can be misleading, and that it may be very important to take the uncertainty in age estimates into account. Methods that account for the uncertainty in topology, branch lengths and estimated divergence times are not commonly used in biogeographical inference today but should definitely be preferred in order to avoid unwarranted conclusions.     

High- and low-latitude forcing of Plio-Pleistocene East African climate and human evolution

The late Cenozoic climate of East Africa is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity, superimposed on a regime of subdued moisture availability exhibiting a long-term drying trend. These periods of extreme climate variability appear to correlate with maxima in the 400-thousand-year (kyr) component of the Earth's eccentricity cycle. Prior to 2.7 Ma the wet phases appear every 400 kyrs, whereas after 2.7 Ma, the wet phases appear every 800 kyrs, with periods of precessional-forced extreme climate variability at 2.7-2.5 Ma, 1.9-1.7 Ma, and 1.1-0.9 Ma before present. The last three major lake phases occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1.0-0.7 Ma). High-latitude forcing is required to compress the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in East Africa.     

Testing the utility of Nothofagus pumilio for dating a snow avalanche in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

In the subalpine forest zone, snow avalanches are potentially stand-devastating disturbances. Historical data regarding past avalanches in Argentina are scarce, but sufficiently old trees can show signs of past avalanche episodes that can be accurately dated using dendrochronological methods. Tree-ring analysis has not yet been used for dating avalanches in Tierra del Fuego, even though these disturbances are important to the dynamics of these southern forests. In this study, we evaluated the quality of Nothofagus pumilio for dating the avalanche that took place in the Martial Valley in 1976. Tree-ring data, complemented with vegetation analysis, was used to study the avalanche path. The dendrochronological study consisted of the analysis of wood samples taken from living trees located on the boundary between the undisturbed forest and the avalanche path. The vegetation analysis compared the forest structure within the avalanche path with the unaffected nearby forest. Wood scars and the abrupt increase in tree growth confirmed the occurrence of an avalanche event in 1976 in the Martial Valley of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. The vegetation structure within the avalanche path was considerably different than that of the undisturbed forest. We found an important relationship between sapling abundance within the avalanche path and their distance from the undisturbed forest and their altitudinal position. The dendrochronological dating obtained in this research confirmed that the techniques and methodology used for N. pumilio in this study can be successfully applied for dating other avalanches that lack historical information.     

Recent oceanic long-distance dispersal and divergence in the amphi-Atlantic rain forest genus Renealmia L.f. (Zingiberaceae)

Renealmia L.f. (Zingiberaceae) is one of the few tropical plant genera with numerous species in both Africa and South America but not in Asia. Based on phylogenetic analysis of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and chloroplast trnL-F DNA, Renealmia is shown to be monophyletic with high branch support. Low sequence divergence found in the two genome regions (ITS: 0-2.4%; trnL-F: 0-1.9%) suggests recent diversification within the genus. Molecular divergence age estimates give further support to the recent origin of the genus and show that Renealmia has attained its amphi-Atlantic distribution by an oceanic long-distance dispersal event from Africa to South America during the Miocene or Pliocene (15.8-2.7 My ago). Some support is found for the hypothesis that speciation in neotropical Renealmia was influenced by the Andean orogeny. Speciation has been approximately simultaneous on both sides of the Atlantic, but increased taxon sampling is required to compare the speciation rates between the New World and Old World tropics.     

A general comparison of relaxed molecular clock models

Several models have been proposed to relax the molecular clock in order to estimate divergence times. However, it is unclear which model has the best fit to real data and should therefore be used to perform molecular dating. In particular, we do not know whether rate autocorrelation should be considered or which prior on divergence times should be used. In this work, we propose a general bench mark of alternative relaxed clock models. We have reimplemented most of the already existing models, including the popular lognormal model, as well as various prior choices for divergence times (birth-death, Dirichlet, uniform), in a common Bayesian statistical framework. We also propose a new autocorrelated model, called the "CIR" process, with well-defined stationary properties. We assess the relative fitness of these models and priors, when applied to 3 different protein data sets from eukaryotes, vertebrates, and mammals, by computing Bayes factors using a numerical method called thermodynamic integration. We find that the 2 autocorrelated models, CIR and lognormal, have a similar fit and clearly outperform uncorrelated models on all 3 data sets. In contrast, the optimal choice for the divergence time prior is more dependent on the data investigated. Altogether, our results provide useful guidelines for model choice in the field of molecular dating while opening the way to more extensive model comparisons.     

Molecular-based estimate of species number,phylogenetic relationships and divergence times for the genus Stenotaenia (Chilopoda,Geophilomorpha) in the Italian region

Stenotaenia is one of the largest and most widespread genera of geophilid centipedes in the Western Palearctic, with a very uniform morphology and about fifteen species provisionally recognized. For a better understanding of Stenotaenia species-level taxonomy, we have explored the possibility of using molecular data. As a preliminary assay, we sampled twelve populations, mainly from the Italian region, and analyzed partial sequences of the two genes COI and 28S. We employed a DNA-barcoding approach, complemented by a phylogenetic analysis coupled with divergence time estimation. Assuming a barcoding gap of 10–16% K2P pairwise distances, we found evidence for the presence of at least six Stenotaenia species in the Italian region, which started diverging about 50 million years ago, only partially matching with previously recognized species. We found that small-sized oligopodous species belong to a single clade that originated about 33 million years ago, and obtained some preliminary evidence of the related genus Tuoba being nested within Stenotaenia.     

Phylogenetic relationships of the Cretaceous frog Beelzebufo from Madagascar and the placement of fossil constraints based on temporal and phylogenetic evidence

The placement of fossil calibrations is ideally based on the phylogenetic analysis of extinct taxa. Another source of information is the temporal variance for a given clade implied by a particular constraint when combined with other, well-supported calibrations. For example, the frog Beelzebufo ampinga from the Cretaceous of Madagascar has been hypothesized to be a crown-group member of the New World subfamily Ceratophryinae, which would support a Late Cretaceous connection with South America. However, phylogenetic analyses and molecular divergence time estimates based on other fossils do not support this placement. We derive a metric, Δt, to quantify temporal divergence among chronograms and find that errors resulting from mis-specified calibrations are localized when additional nodes throughout the tree are properly calibrated. The use of temporal information from molecular data can further assist in testing phylogenetic hypotheses regarding the placement of extinct taxa.     

Phylogenetics, species boundaries and timing of resource tracking in a highly specialized group of seed beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Bruchinae)

Though for a long time it was hypothesized that the extraordinary diversity of phytophagous insects was better explained by a synchronous pattern of co-diversification with plants, the results of recent studies have led to question this theory, suggesting that the diversification of insects occurred well after that of their hosts. In this study we address this issue by investigating the timing of diversification of a highly specialized group of seed beetles, which mostly feeds on legume plants from the tribe Indigofereae. To that purpose, a total of 130 specimens were sequenced for six genes and analyzed under a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Based on the resulting trees we performed several analyses that allowed a better definition of the group boundaries and to investigate the status of several taxa through the use of molecular species delimitation analyses in combination with morphological evidences. In addition the evolution of host plant use was reconstructed and different molecular-dating approaches were carried out in order to assess the ages of several clades of interest. The resulting framework suggests a more ancient than previously thought origin for seed beetles, and a pattern of rapid host plant colonization. These findings call for further similar studies in other highly specialized groups of phytophagous insects.