The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

The legacy effect of biochar application on soil nitrous oxide emissions

Existing studies suggest that biochar application can reduce soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, mainly based on short-term results. However, it remains unclear what the effects (i.e., legacy effects) and underlying mechanisms are on N₂O emissions after many years of a single application of biochar. Here, we collected intact soil columns from plots without and with biochar application in a subtropical tea plantation 7 years ago for an incubation experiment. We used the N₂O isotopocule analysis combined with ammonia oxidizer-specific inhibitors and molecular biology approaches to investigate how the legacy effect of biochar affected soil N₂O emissions. Results showed that the soil in the presence of biochar had lower N₂O emissions than the control albeit statistically insignificant. The legacy effect of biochar in decreasing N₂O emissions may be attributed to the reduced effectiveness of the soil substrate, nitrification and denitrification activities, and the promotion of the further reduction of N₂O. The legacy effect of biochar reduced the relative contribution of nitrifier denitrification/bacterial denitrification, nitrification-related N₂O production, and the relative abundance of several microorganisms involved in the nitrogen cycle. Our global meta-analysis also showed that the reduction of N₂O by biochar increased with increasing application rate but diminished and possibly even reversed with increasing experimental time. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the abatement capacity of biochar on soil N₂O emissions may weaken over time after biochar application, but this remains under further investigation.     

The causes of colour and colour change in caterpillars of the poplar and eyed hawkmoths (Laothoe populi and Smerinthus ocellata)

Caterpillars of the poplar and eyed hawkmoths (Laothoe populi and Smerinthus ocellata respectively) were reared under different conditions in order to determine why final instar caterpillars vary in colour. Poplar hawkmoth caterpillars normally rest on the undersides of leaves. Dull green and redspotted caterpillars are genetically determined polymorphisms. Caterpillars that are not dull green, however, can become white when fed on Populus alba or yellow-green when fed on Salix fragilis. Experiments showed that it is the reflective qualities of the leaves that determines which colour the caterpillar develops: if the young larva sees white then it becomes white, but if it sees green, grey or black then it becomes yellow-green. Young eyed hawkmoth larvae always developed into grey-green final instar caterpillars under our rather poorly-illuminated rearing conditions, but when reared on wild plants in white muslin sleeves they became whitish-green. In this species also it appears that colour of the final instar is determined by the reflectance of the substrate perceived by the young caterpillar.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises

In addition to assessing the impacts of CO₂ doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or surprises. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes.     

First report on new evidence for the occurrence of Podocarpus and possible human presence at the mouth of the Amazon during the Late-glacial

Palynological studies on late Quaternary lake sediments from the region of the Amazon estuary, 100 km north-east of Belém, Pará State, Brazil, enable reconstruction of lowland Amazonian rain forest during the Late-glacial and Holocene periods. Late-glacial forests included populations of Podocarpus which suggests a distinct climatic cooling. Ilex was abundant in the early Holocene. Records of the mangrove taxon, Rhizophora, indicate rapid Atlantic sea-level rise in the beginning of the Holocene. High charcoal representation may reflect the first arrival of Amerindians in the Amazon coastal area, probably about 10 800 B.P.     

Global vegetation models: incorporating transient changes to structure and composition

Abstract. We describe an approach for developing a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) that accounts for transient changes in vegetation distribution over a decadal time scale. The DGVM structure is based on a linkage between an equilibrium global vegetation model and smaller scale ecosystem dynamics modules that simulate the rate of vegetation change. Vegetation change is classified into four basic types, based largely on the projected change in above-ground biomass of the vegetation. These four types of change are: (1) dieback of forest, shrubland or grassland; (2) successional replacement within forest, shrubland or grassland; (3) invasion of forest, shrubland or grassland; (4) change in tree/grass ratio. We then propose an approach in which the appropriate ecosystem dynamics module for each type of change is applied and the grid cells of the global model updated accordingly. An approach for accounting for fire, as an example of a disturbance which may strongly influence the rate and spatial pattern of forest dieback, is incorporated. We also discuss data needs for the development, calibration and validation of the model.     

Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale

Increased atmospheric CO₂ often but not always leads to large decreases in leaf conductance. Decreased leaf conductance has important implications for a number of components of CO₂ responses, from the plant to the global scale. All of the factors that are sensitive to a change in soil moisture, either amount or timing, may be affected by increased CO₂. The list of potentially sensitive processes includes soil evaporation, run-off, decomposition, and physiological adjustments of plants, as well as factors such as canopy development and the composition of the plant and microbial communities. Experimental evidence concerning ecosystem-scale consequences of the effects of CO₂ on water use is only beginning to accumulate, but the initial indication is that, in water-limited areas, the effects of CO₂-induced changes in leaf conductance are comparable in importance to those of CO,₂-induced changes in photosynthesis. Above the leaf scale, a number of processes interact to modulate the response of canopy or regional evapotran-spiration to increased CO₂. While some components of these processes tend to amplify the sensitivity of evapo-transpiration to altered leaf conductance, the most likely overall pattern is one in which the responses of canopy and regional evapotranspiration are substantially smaller than the responses of canopy conductance. The effects of increased CO₂ on canopy evapotranspiration are likely to be smallest in aerodynamically smooth canopies with high leaf conductances. Under these circumstances, which are largely restricted to agriculture, decreases in evapotranspiration may be only one-fourth as large as decreases in canopy conductance. Decreased canopy conductances over large regions may lead to altered climate, including increased temperature and decreased precipitation. The simulation experiments to date predict small effects globally, but these could be important regionally, especially in combination with radiative (greenhouse) effects of increased CO₂.     

Chaperone SecB: Conformational changes demonstrated by circular dichroism

The chaperone SecB, which is involved in protein export inEscherichia coli, is shown by circular dichroism measurements to contain a high content of-pleated sheets. Prediction of the secondary structure of SecB is in good agreement with the observed content of-sheet. In accordance with the previous studies in which changes in conformation were assessed indirectly [Randall (1992),Science 257, 241–245], here we show that the conformation of SecB changes with the concentration of salt in the milieu and also when SecB interacts with a peptide ligand.Abbreviations ANS 1-anilino-naphthalene-8-sulfonate - CD circular dichroism - NMR nuclear magnetic resonance - CCA convex constraint analysis