Diurnal water storage in the stems of Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.

Abstract. Two models of the relationship between diurnal variation in shoot water potential and transpiration in 14-year-old Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr. were compared. The first model was a physiologically based resistance-capacitance (R-C) analogue with its associated differential equations. The second was a non-physiological discrete-difference (D-D) or stochastic transfer function model. The RC model included only the effect of water storage in the phloem and bark while the D-D model implicity included all storage mechanisms. The R-C and D-D models explained similar fractions (62% and 68% respectively) of the variation in shoot water potential due to diurnal changes in transpiration rate. However, the D-D model had fewer parameters than the R-C model. The results from the D-D model showed that the resistance to flow from soil to shoots along the trunk, (RT), was 5 × 10³ MPa kg^-1s and the capacitance of the phloem and bark treated as a single store, (C_s), was 1.6 kg MPa^-1. It is suggested that the resistance to flow into storage (R_s) is much greater than R_T and can be disregarded. A non-linear version of the D-D model suggested [hat resistance to flow in the trunk increases with increasing transpiration rate.     

Risk-Based Approaches to Managing Contaminants in Catchments

Risk-based methods promise improved decision-making for managing of contaminants, such as salinity, sediments, nutrients, and toxicants, that can adversely affect the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems. Two aspects of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and management—stakeholder involvement and more quantitative approaches to risk analysis—are particularly challenging. Stakeholder involvement is crucial both in the risk assessment process and the development, acceptance, and implementation of a risk management plan. Additionally, a number of quantitative approaches (particularly Bayesian approaches and multi-criteria decision-making) have been identified as having the potential to include expert-based inputs into risk-based decision-making. These offer promise for better inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and preferences into the decision-making process, and for improving the links between stakeholder inputs and potential risks to the ecological condition of the system. A major challenge for ecologists and natural resource managers is to make the ERA process more quantitative. Most ERAs conducted to date have been qualitative assessments that suffer from a number of deficiencies, the most serious being the lack of transparency and a reliance on subjective judgments. This article argues that the most productive way forward may be to use Bayesian methods to couple existing process-based models, empirical relationships based on good data, and expert opinion, to make the analysis of ecological risks more robust, consistent, and repeatable.     

Resistance to change and vulnerability to stress: autistic‐like features of GAP43‐deficient mice

There is an urgent need for animal models of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) to understand the underlying pathology and facilitate development and testing of new treatments. The synaptic growth‐associated protein‐43 (GAP43) has recently been identified as an autism candidate gene of interest. Our previous studies show many brain abnormalities in mice lacking one allele for GAP43 [GAP43 (+/?)] that are consistent with the disordered connectivity theory of ASD. Thus, we hypothesized that GAP43 (+/?) mice would show at least some autistic‐like behaviors. We found that GAP43 (+/?) mice, relative to wild‐type (+/+) littermates, displayed resistance to change, consistent with one of the diagnostic criteria for ASD. GAP43 (+/?) mice also displayed stress‐induced behavioral withdrawal and anxiety, as seen in many autistic individuals. In addition, both GAP43 (+/?) mice and (+/+) littermates showed low social approach and lack of preference for social novelty, consistent with another diagnostic criterion for ASD. This low sociability is likely because of the mixed C57BL/6J 129S3/SvImJ background. We conclude that GAP43 deficiency leads to the development of a subset of autistic‐like behaviors. As these behaviors occur in a mouse that displays disordered connectivity, we propose that future anatomical and functional studies in this mouse may help uncover underlying mechanisms for these specific behaviors. Strain‐specific low sociability may be advantageous in these studies, creating a more autistic‐like environment for study of the GAP43‐mediated deficits of resistance to change and vulnerability to stress.     

Models for age structured populations with distributed maturation rates

In the use of age structured population models for agricultural applications such as the modeling of crop-pest interactions it is often essential that the model take into account the distribution in maturation rates present in some or all of the populations. The traditional method for incorporating distributed maturation rates into crop and pest models has been the so-called distributed delay method. In this paper we review the application of the distributed delay formalism to the McKendrick equation of an age structured population. We discuss the mathematical properties of the system of ordinary differential equations arising out of the distributed delay formalism. We then discuss an alternative method involving modification of the Leslie matrix.     

Binary Responses and the Three-period Cross-over

Problems with carry-over effects in the simple two-period cross-over have lead to interest in more complex cross-over designs. A method for analysing the optimum two-treatment three-period design with binary response variables is given by making a simple extension to Gart's logistic model. The method gives independent tests for, and estimates of the difference in treatment and first-order carry-over effects. An example of the analysis is given, using the loglinear models facility in GLIM.     

Simulation of nitrogen assimilation by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass

Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and ¹⁵N and on organic ¹⁵N dynamics in soils incubated with ¹⁵N added as NH⁺₄ or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of ¹⁵N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil.     

Two related,low-temperature-induced genes from Brassica napus are homologous to the human tumour bbc1 (breast basic conserved) gene

In order to identify genes involved in cold acclimation, we have constructed a cDNA library from Brassica napus (cv. Samouraï) cold-acclimated etiolated seedlings. By differential screening, a cDNA clone named pBnC24 (Brassica napus Cold), corresponding to a new cold-inducible plant gene, was isolated. Northern blot hybridizations using total RNA from acclimated and unacclimated seedlings confirmed that BnC24 represents a cold-regulated gene. In contrast with a number of cold-inducible plant genes, BnC24 does not seem to be responsive to abscisic acid (ABA). In addition, further screening of the cold-acclimated cDNA library using pBnC24 cDNA as a probe, allowed the isolation of a second type of homologous cDNA. Sequence analysis showed that the two BnC24 genes encode basic 24 kDa proteins, which are highly hydrophilic and rich in alanine, lysine and arginine. The nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequences of these clones do not show any homology with other previously described cold-induced plants genes. However they have strong homology with a recently discovered human tumour gene, bbc1 (breast basic conserved), which seems to be highly conserved in eukaryotes.     

Predicting walnut (Juglans spp.) crop yield using meteorological and airborne pollen data

Crop yield determines economy by influencing prices on the trade market, and so accurate forecasts of the yield are important for planning various aspects of agricultural production. The main aim of this study is to construct a model for predicting walnut yield in an important walnut production area (the region of Novi Sad in Northern Serbia). Relationships between the amount of walnuts produced annually (2000–2011) and abiotic (e.g. meteorological) and biotic (e.g. airborne pollen data) factors were examined using Pearson correlation analysis. Walnut yield data were then entered into linear regression models with variables that had the highest correlations. The models were constructed using 10 years of data, and tested using 2 years of data not included in constructing the model. This paper has shown that walnut yield is greatly dependent on weather conditions, particularly during fertilisation and seed growth, but the amount of available airborne pollen also plays an important role. The introduction of the seasonal pollen index, as a proxy for the amount of pollen available for fertilisation, improved the performance of models predicting walnut yield.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.