Predicting coral community recovery using multi‐species population dynamics models

Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi‐species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density‐dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre‐disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life‐history, environmental conditions, and density‐dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

西藏唐北地区湖泊动态及空间格局预测

本研究评估了西藏唐古拉山以北地区(唐北地区)湖泊动态并预测了湖泊空间格局变化.使用面向对象分类和光谱角向量变化检测方法生成了2000-2015年西藏唐北地区每5年一期的生态系统分布数据.以此为基础,分析了湖泊与其他生态系统之间的转换和空间格局特征,评估了湖泊空间格局的动态及其与相关自然地理因素的关系.通过增强回归树识别了不同因素对湖泊动态的贡献,使用GEOMOD模型预测了湖泊到2030年的空间变化.结果表明:唐北地区在2000-2015年间湖泊增加了14.2%,是唐北地区生态系统变化的主要形式之一.区域内15个面积大于10 km2的湖泊有10个增加,另有5个减少,且缩减量较低.通过空间格局分析发现,唐北地区湖泊斑块表现为面积和数量同时增加,大斑块面积比重略有上升.扩张幅度高的湖泊多分布于海拔高、坡度大、温度低、降水少、距离冰川近的区域.位于现有湖泊周边、温度低、降水少、坡度小的区域转变为湖泊的几率较高.根据过去15年的趋势,到2030年,唐北地区湖泊将继续增加119 km2,主要变化形式从大湖扩张转变为小型水面扩张.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

中国东南部不同海拔亚热带森林中马尾松径向生长对气候的响应

为了解我国东南部亚热带森林不同海拔树木生长对气候响应的差异,建立了福建省武夷山脉东麓2个样点的4个马尾松(Pinus massoniana)轮宽年表,对树木径向生长与气候因子进行了bootstrapped相关分析和线性混合模型(LME)拟合。结果表明,在高海拔地区马尾松径向生长对气候因子年际波动敏感性较强,主要表现为与生长季前冬季光温条件以及生长季内7月降水的正相关,生长-气候关系在不同样点间表现出较强的一致性。线性混合模型可以较好地拟合高海拔树木生长变化,当使用前1年12月平均日最高温、当年1月日照时长和当年7月降雨量3个气候变量进行拟合时,模型解释量达到0.5,其中前1年12月最高温和当年1月日照时数在模型中起到主导作用,累积相对贡献率约占80%,说明生长季前冬季的光热条件是限制高海拔马尾松径向生长最主要的气候因子。因此,我国亚热带地区高海拔的树木径向生长可能对未来气候变化有更强的敏感性,相关森林管理政策的制定需要将此纳入考虑;同时我国亚热带地区高海拔森林中的树木有被用于树轮气候重建的潜力。     

斑马鱼作为骨骼疾病模型的研究进展

斑马鱼作为一种优良的动物模型已被广泛应用于人类相关疾病机理及药物筛选的研究。由于斑马鱼骨骼发育过程和调控机制与哺乳动物高度保守,目前已成功构建斑马鱼骨骼疾病模型。本文首先介绍斑马鱼骨骼发育过程和分子调控机制,并对斑马鱼模型骨骼研究的基本方法及在骨骼药物筛选中的研究现状进行分析和总结,以期对斑马鱼作为骨骼疾病模型进行药物筛选或基础研究提供参考。     

布比卡因致心肌细胞线粒体损伤大鼠模型的建立

目的观察电刺激下布比卡因心肌细胞线粒体形态变化及活性氧(reactive oxygen species, ROS)生成量,探讨建立理想的布比卡因中毒的大鼠心肌细胞模型。方法采用Langendroff装置新鲜分离雄性SD大鼠心肌细胞,细胞计数后将其转移至doff管中随机分为四组:DMEM静置组、DMEM电刺激组、布比卡因静置组、布比卡因电刺激组。实验重复五次。采用透射电镜观察心肌细胞线粒体形态,并使用多功能微孔板检测仪测量ROS生成量。结果 DMEM电刺激组线粒体肿胀程度及ROS生成量与DMEM静置组相比差异无显著性(P> 0.05);而布比卡因电刺激组线粒体肿胀程度明显高于布比卡因静置组(P=0.000),且ROS生成量也明显升高(P<0.05)。结论电刺激下心肌细胞呈节律性收缩,能更好地模拟临床布比卡因中毒时心肌线粒体损伤。     

Sensitivity of stress and strain calculations to passive material parameters in cardiac mechanical models using unloaded geometries

Cardiac stress (load) and strain (stretch) are widely studied indicators of cardiac function and outcome, but are difficult or impossible to directly measure in relation to the cardiac microstructure. An alternative approach is to estimate these states using computer methods and image-based measurements, but this still requires knowledge of the tissue material properties and the unloaded state, both of which are difficult to determine. In this work, we tested the sensitivity of these two interdependent unknowns (reference geometry and material parameters) on stress and strain calculations in cardiac tissue. Our study used a finite element model of the human ventricle, with a hyperelastic passive material model, and was driven by a cell model mediated active contraction. We evaluated 21 different published parameter sets for the five parameters of the passive material model, and for each set we optimised the corresponding unloaded geometry and contractility parameter to model a single pressure-volume loop. The resulting mechanics were compared, and calculated systolic stresses were largely insensitive to the chosen parameter set when an unloading algorithm was used. Meanwhile, material strain calculations varied substantially depending on the choice of material parameters. These results indicate that determining the correct material and unloaded configuration may be highly important to understand strain driven processes, but less so for calculating stress estimates.     

Numerical simulation of two-phase non-Newtonian blood flow with fluid-structure interaction in aortic dissection

The behavior of blood cells and vessel compliance significantly influence hemodynamic parameters, which are closely related to the development of aortic dissection. Here the two-phase non-Newtonian model and the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) method are coupled to simulate blood flow in a patient-specific dissected aorta. Moreover, three-element Windkessel model is applied to reproduce physiological pressure waves. Important hemodynamic indicators, such as the spatial distribution of red blood cells (RBCs) and vessel wall displacement, which greatly influence the hemodynamic characteristics are analyzed. Results show that the proximal false lumen near the entry tear appears to be a vortex zone with a relatively lower volume fraction of RBCs, a low time-averaged wall shear stress (TAWSS) and a high oscillatory shear index (OSI), providing a suitable physical environment for the formation of atherosclerosis. The highest TAWSS is located in the narrow area of the distal true lumen which might cause further dilation. TAWSS distributions in the FSI model and the rigid wall model show similar trend, while there is a significant difference for the OSI distributions. We suggest that an integrated model is essential to simulate blood flow in a more realistic physiological environment with the ultimate aim of guiding clinical treatment.     

An interactive surgical simulation tool to assess the consequences of a partial glossectomy on a biomechanical model of the tongue

Oral cancer surgery has a negative influence on the quality of life (QOL). As a result of the complex physiology involved in oral functions, estimation of surgical effects on functionality remains difficult. We present a user-friendly biomechanical simulation of tongue surgery, including closure with suturing and scar formation, followed by an automated adaptation of a finite element (FE) model to the shape of the tongue. Different configurations of our FE model were evaluated and compared to a well-established FE model. We showed that the post-operative impairment as predicted by our model was qualitatively comparable to a patient case for five different tongue maneuvers.