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81.
The expected effects of climate change on wheat development 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Air temperature and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to rise. These two factor have a great potential to affect development, growth and yield of crops, including wheat. Rising air temperature may affect wheat development more than rising atmospheric CO2 as there is not yet evidence that elevated CO2 concentrations can directly induce changes in wheat development. In winter wheat, temperature has a complex effect on development due to its strong interaction with vernalization and photoperiod. In this paper, potential effects of rising temperature on the development of winter wheat from sowing to heading are considered in the light of this complex controlling mechanism. Data from a large series of field trials made in Romania is analysed at first and, subsequently, the IATA-Wheat Phenology model is used to calculate the impact of air warming on wheat development under different climate change scenarios. Data from the field trials showed very clearly the occurrence of a complex temperature/photoperiod/vernalization interaction for field sown crops and demostrated that the photoperiodic and vernalization responses have a key role in controlling the duration of the emergence-heading period. Temperature plays, instead, a central role in controlling seed germination and crop emergence as well as leaf inititiation and leaf appearance rate. The results of model analysis showed very well that the impact of an even or uneven distribution of warning effects may be very different. In the first case, the model predicted that the duration of the vegetative period was at least partly reduced in some years. In the second case, the model suggested that if warming will be more pronounced in winter than in spring, as predicted for some areas of the world by General Circulation Models, we may expect an increase in the duration of the vegetative phase of growth. On the contrary, in case of a spring warming but unchanged winter temperatures, we may expect a substantial decrease in the duration of the vegetative period. 相似文献
82.
The distribution and abundance of Thelypteris limbosperma, Athyrium distentifolium, and Matteuccia struthiopteris are modelled statistically in relation to 14 environmental variables along the major climatic, topographic, and edaphic gradients in western Norway. The data are from 624 stands from which measurements or estimates of mean January and mean July temperatures, humidity, altitude, aspect, and slope are available. From 182 of these stands eight soil variables have also been measured. The species responses are quantified by two numerical methods: Gaussian logit regression and weighted averaging (WA) regression. The estimated WA optima suggest that A. distentifolium has an ecological preference for low July and January temperatures, high altitudes, and soils of low-medium pH and base content. The species shows statistically significant Gaussian responses with summer temperature, humidity (= Martonnes humidity index), altitude, slope, aspect, pH, cation exchange capacity, and base saturation with optima of 8.7 °C, 188.9, 1220 m, 28°, 29°, 4.8, 13.77 mEq 100 g dry soil-1, and 13.4%, respectively. These suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of A. distentifolium are well predicted by summer temperature, topography, and soil pH and base status. T. limbosperma has WA optima that suggest that it favours moderately high winter and summer temperatures, high humidity, medium altitude, and soils of low pH and base content. It has significant Gaussian responses to summer temperature (optimum =12.6 °C), winter temperature (-1.8 °C), humidity (179.2), altitude (459.5 m), slope (22.5°), and Na (0.7 mg 100 g dry soil-1). These suggest that climatic factors, altitude, and slope are significant predictors for its occurrence and abundance. M. struthiopteris has high WA optima for summer temperature, pH, Ca, Mg, K, Na, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and base saturation, and a low optima for humidity and winter temperature. Of these, summer temperature (16.0 °C), Ca (63.1 mg 100 g dry soil-1), Mg (41.0 mg 100 g dry soil-1), K (23.6 mg 100 g dry soil-1), Na (5.0 mg 100 g dry soil-1), CEC (60.7 mEq 100 g dry soil-1), and base saturation (56.3%) have significant Gaussian logit responses, as do aspect (150.2°) and loss-on-ignition (9.4%). These results suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of M. struthiopteris are well predicted by high soil base cations, a generally southern aspect, low organic content in the soil, and high July temperatures. 相似文献
83.
RALPH C. MACNALLY 《Austral ecology》1995,20(3):442-454
Abstract Communities of forest and woodland birds are usually studied intensively at only one or a few locations. This provides a perspective that perhaps emphasizes local phenomena at the expense of placing local dynamics in the context of processes operating at the landscape or regional scale. The present paper seeks to redress partially this imbalance by studying the dynamics of individual bird species among several habitat types (all Eucalyptus-dominated forests or woodlands) over the annual cycle. This regional-scale (250km), continental study reveals that species exhibit idiosyncratic dynamics of various kinds: restricted or more ubiquitous occupation of habitats and three forms of seasonal dynamics at the regional scale (resident, migrant and itinerant). By using this classificatory scheme, it becomes evident that the bird communities found in different habitats consist of diverse collections of strategists and that the level of diversity differs among habitat types. The difficulties that many field workers have had in reconciling their observations with community theory most likely reflect the underlying dynamism of bird communities, especially in the temperate regions on continents where seasonal fluxes are pronounced. 相似文献
84.
Population-based data have not been readily available on relatively short-term changes in weight. Therefore, we sought to determine the nature of self-reported substantial (> 10%) weight change over one year in a representative sample of the US population which participated in the 1989 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Across all ages, a larger proportion of women than men reported both weight loss as well as weight gain of any amount (18.9% vs. 16.1% for weight loss and 20.0% vs. 16.1% for weight gain). In sex-specific logistic regression analyses, significant risk factors common to both sexes for substantial weight loss included divorced/separated marital status, smoking, increased number of blood pressure checks, increased BMI (body mass index) and increased number of bed days. Black race reduced the risk of weight loss for both men and women. Sex-specific risk factors for weight loss in men only were widowhood or never married marital status, while increasing age was a protective factor in women only. Concerning weight gain > 10% over the past year, increased number of blood pressure checks and having one or more diabetic parents were significant risk factors among both men and women; while never being married, increased age, BMI, and education exerted a protective effect in both sexes. For women only, risk factors for weight gain included black race, increased number of contacts with a health professional, and being unemployed. Intention to lose weight was associated with both weight gain and weight loss in both sexes, although it did not serve as a confounder in any of these relationships. A greater likelihood of substantial weight loss among women relative to men was diminished for persons with higher BMI, higher number of blood pressure checks, being widowed, divorced or separated, and intention to lose weight. A greater likelihood of substantial weight gain among women relative to men was diminished for persons with low BMI. The results of this cross-sectional study of weight change, involving a one-year follow-up period, generally correspond with the results obtained by longitudinal studies involving a longer follow-up. 相似文献
85.
Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350 相似文献
86.
Yu. A. Kuznetsov M. Ya. Antonovsky V. N. Biktashev E. A. Aponina 《Journal of mathematical biology》1994,32(3):219-232
A simple mathematical model of mono-species forest with two age classes which takes into account seed production and dispersal is presented in the paper. This reaction — diffusion type model is then reduced by means of an asymptotic procedure to a lower dimensional reaction — cross-diffusion model. The existence of standing and travelling wave front solutions corresponding to the forest boundary is shown for the later model. On the basis of the analysis, possible changes in forest boundary dynamics caused by antropogenic impacts are discussed. 相似文献
87.
The bifurcations of the periodic solutions of SEIR and SIR epidemic models with sinusoidally varying contact rate are investigated. The analysis is carried out with respect to two parameters: the mean value and the degree of seasonality of the contact rate. The corresponding portraits in the two-parameter space are obtained by means of a numerical continuation method. Codimension two bifurcations (degenerate flips and cusps) are detected, and multiple stable modes of behavior are identified in various regions of the parameter space. Finally, it is shown how the parametric portrait of the SEIR model tends to that of the SIR model when the latent period tends to zero. 相似文献
88.
In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease. 相似文献
89.
Ecomorphological patterns of breeding dabbling duck (Anas spp.) assemblages were studied in six regions in northern Europe. Observed spacings among species in terms of bill lamellar density and body length were compared with expected spacings based on null models incorporating different levels of constraints (regional species pools, species relative abundances, lake size and habitat requirements of species). Deviations of observed spacings from expected ones were compared with prey abundance and prey size diversity in the lakes. Observed spacings in terms of body length, but not in terms of bill lamellar density, were greater than expected on the basis of null models. The most abundant species were generally relatively more different than less abundant species in terms of body length but not in terms of bill lamellar density. Deviations between observed and expected spacings in terms of body length were more like those predicted by the competition hypothesis in lakes with low food abundance than in lakes with high food abundance. Patterns in bill lamellar spacings were not related to food abundance nor to food size diversity. In general, patterns in body length spacings were consistent with the competition hypothesis whether the null model used in comparisons was constrained or not. 相似文献
90.
Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH+ 4 and NO− 3 from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and 15 N and on organic 15 N dynamics in soils incubated with 15 N added as NH+ 4 or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of 15 N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH+ 4 and NO− 3 were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil. 相似文献