Using Fault Tree Analysis to Assess Bioterrorist Risks to the U.S. Food Supply

Concerns about terrorist use of biological agents have increased at state and federal levels and in the popular press. Vulnerability of U.S. agricultural assets to bioterrorism has received less attention. A bioterrorist could use the U.S. food supply system to deliver a bioagent to a human target or use a bioagent to destroy it's inputs or infrastructure. Establishing effective agriculture security programs requires condensing generalizations about such bioterrorist threats into specific attack scenarios. This paper suggests a two-stage process to achieve this: problem formulation to define and rank scenarios, then quantitative risk assessment of selected, more highly ranked, scenarios. The quantitative component is illustrated for two specific scenarios: the actual 1984 Rajneeshee incident in Oregon and a hypothetical release of oral anthrax into the food supply system. The fault tree analysis of these scenarios suggests that the food supply system may be a less than optimal bioagent delivery mechanism, particularly if the objective is a mass casualty attack, as a number of events must occur simultaneously with reasonable probability if a bioagent is likely to be deployed effectively. In addition, an environmentally stable bioagent would be required if only the food system were used to deliver it to human consumers, but early detection of an intentional release common bioagent may be difficult absent specific intelligence or “unusual” epidemiological circumstances.     

Cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica)—Biology,Ecology, and Management

Cogongrass is considered to be one of the ten most troublesome and problematic weedy species in the world. This species is found throughout tropical and subtropical regions, generally in areas disturbed by human activities. Over 100 common names have been associated with cogongrass, including japgrass, speargrass, alang-alang, and bladygrass. Although this species has several commercial uses, the problems associated with its weediness far outweigh most positive benefits. Cogongrass is a major impediment to reforestation efforts in southeast Asia, the number one weed in agronomic and vegetable production in many parts of Africa, and is responsible for thousands of hectares of lost native habitat in the southeastern U.S. Biologically, cogongrass possesses several features that foster its spread and persistence. Management efforts for cogongrass consist of an integrated approach with several control strategies. In agronomic production, the use of cover crops is widely successful, but incorporation into the overall production scheme is challenging. Success has been achieved with continuous deep tillage or chemical applications, but long-term eradication/suppression must employ sustainable revegetation strategies.     

Lactic acid production from agriculture residues

Various agriculture feedstock residues were evaluated for lactic acid production by simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) using Lactobacillus delbrueckii and Lactobacillus plantarum, without any additional nutrients. Lactic acid production was higher in alfalfa fiber and soya fiber compared to corncob (soft) and wheat straw. In Lactobacillus plantarum, the amount of lactic acid obtained from alfalfa fiber and soya fiber was 46 and 44 g/100 g fiber, respectively. However, in Lactobacillus delbrueckii, the lactic acid production in soya fiber was 44 g/100 g fiber and that of alfalfa was 32 g/100 g fiber. Small amounts of acetic acid were also produced from SSF of agricultural feedstocks residues. During SSF of alfalfa fiber, lactic acid production in both L. delbrueckii and L. plantarum was enhanced by adding pectinases and cellulases. Lactic acid production from alfalfa fiber did not change with increasing O₂ transfer rates in the fermentation medium, whereas acetic acid production in both Lactobacillus cultures increased with increasing O₂ transfer rates.     

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), Cyanogenic Potential, and Predation in Northwestern Amazonia: The Tukanoan Perspective

The Tukanoans of northwestern Amazonia cultivate high-cyanogenic potential cassava, which provides 80% of their dietary energy. In an effort to understand why the Tukanoans cultivate primarily high-rather than low-cyanogenic potential cassava, which requires far less processing before consumption, this paper seeks to determine whether the Tukanoans discern a difference in levels of predation on high-and low-cyanogenic potential cassava. Given the potential protection afforded by high-cyanogenic potential, it was hypothesized that the Tukanoans would report higher predation upon low-cyanogenic potential cassava in comparison to high-cyanogenic potential cassava. Both unstructured interviews and pile-sort exercises were conducted to address this question. The unstructured interviews provide some support for the hypothesis, while the pile-sort interviews did not support the hypothesis. These data demonstrate that while the Tukanoans are cognizant of differences in predation on different cassava cultivars, resistance to predation may not be a characteristic of paramount concern in cultivar selection.     

Diversity, Risk Mediation, and Change in a Trans-Himalayan Agropastoral System

We describe the diversity and dynamism of social, agricultural, and livestock husbandry practices in a traditional mountain production system in the Indian Trans-Himalaya. These are interpreted in the context of their role in mediating environmental risk. The production system is a little known Buddhist agropastoral system in the high altitude Spiti Valley (agriculture up to 4450 m, livestock grazing 4900 m, total area ca. 12,000 km²) in the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh. The local population (ca. 10,000) belongs to one of the three Buddhist sects Gelukpa, Shakyapa, or Ningmapa, is related by blood, and shares a common Tibetan dialect. Family is the basic unit of production, though families are highly dependent upon the community to meet production goals. A village council appointed on rotation and functioning democratically is responsible for village administration, and is the arbiter of all decision-making pertaining to collective work and settling disputes. The council ensures equal access of families to common resources, as well as equitable distribution of responsibilities among them. Systems of primogeniture, celibacy, and polygamy seem to have prevented the fragmentation of land holdings and limited population growth. The diversity of practices in the agropastoral system seems adapted to the risk-prone mountainous environment, the risks being climatic, geological, and those posed by wildlife. The system seems to aim at maximizing production while mediating environmental risk. The production system comes forth as highly dynamic, characterized by continuous innovation and experimentation. Recent changes in the production system are in response to both changes in local conditions as well as increasing integration of the local economy with regional markets, though many aspects of the traditional lifestyle continue to be maintained.     

Migration and Agricultural Change: The Case of Smallholder Agriculture in Highland Ecuador

A large and growing number of agricultural households in less developed countries are also engaged in international migration. Thousands of farmers from the highland provinces of Cañar and Azuay, Ecuador, have immigrated to metropolitan New York, where they work in menial jobs and remit, as a group, millions of dollars annually. This paper examines the effects of international migration on agricultural production and land-use in two regions of Cañar Province. An agricultural survey was administered in two communities to determine land-use and agricultural production of migrant and nonmigrant households. Contrary to most reports on the subject, migration has neither led to agricultural abandonment nor have remittances been dedicated to agricultural improvements. Semisubsistence agriculture remains an important riskaverse economic and cultural activity, but cultivation is a poor investment. A large investment in housing and land has converted much of the region into a peri-urban landscape of cultivated real estate.     

Carbon emission and sequestration by agricultural land use: a model study for Europe

A model was developed to calculate carbon fluxes from agricultural soils. The model includes the effects of crop (species, yield and rotation), climate (temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) and soil (carbon content and water retention capacity) on the carbon budget of agricultural land. The changes in quality of crop residues and organic material as a result of changes in CO₂ concentration and changed management were not considered in this model. The model was parameterized for several arable crops and grassland. Data from agricultural, meteorological, soil, and land use databases were input to the model, and the model was used to evaluate the effects of different carbon dioxide mitigation measures on soil organic carbon in agricultural areas in Europe. Average carbon fluxes under the business as usual scenario in the 2008–2012 commitment period were estimated at 0.52 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in grassland and ?0.84 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in arable land. Conversion of arable land to grassland yielded a flux of 1.44 tC ha^?1 y^?1. Farm management related activities aiming at carbon sequestration ranged from 0.15 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the incorporating of straw to 1.50 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the application of farmyard manure. Reduced tillage yields a positive flux of 0.25 tC ha^?1 y^?1. The indirect effect associated with climate was an order of magnitude lower. A temperature rise of 1 °C resulted in a ?0.05 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change whereas the rising CO₂ concentrations gave a 0.01 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change. Estimates are rendered on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid for the commitment period 2008–2012. The study reveals considerable regional differences in the effectiveness of carbon dioxide abatement measures, resulting from the interaction between crop, soil and climate. Besides, there are substantial differences between the spatial patterns of carbon fluxes that result from different measures.     

Breeding Perennial Grain Crops

Referee: Ms. Peggy Wagoner, Rodale Institute, 611 Siegfriedale Road, Kutztown, PA 19530-9749 One-third of the planet's arable land has been lost to soil erosion in recent decades, and the pace of this degradation will increase as the limits of our food production capacity are stretched. The persistent problem of worldwide soil erosion has rekindled interest in perennial grain crops. All of our current grain crops are annuals; therefore, developing an array of new perennial grains - grasses, legumes, and others – will require a long-term commitment. Fortunately, many perennial species can be hybridized with related annual crops, allowing us to incorporate genes of domestication much more quickly than did our ancestors who first selected the genes. Some grain crops — including rye, rice, and sorghum — can be hybridized with close perennial relatives to establish new gene pools. Others, such as wheat, oat, maize, soybean, and sunflower, must be hybridized with more distantly related perennial species and genera. Finally, some perennial species with relatively high grain yields — intermediate wheatgrass, wildrye, lymegrass, eastern gamagrass, Indian ricegrass, Illinois bundleflower, Maximilian sunflower, and probably others — are candidates for direct domestication without interspecific hybridization. To ensure diversity in the field and foster further genetic improvement, breeders will need to develop deep gene pools for each crop. Discussions of breeding strategies for perennial grains have concentrated on allocation of photosyn-thetic resources between seeds and vegetative structures. However, perennials will likely be grown in more diverse agro-ecosystems and require arrays of traits very different from those usually addressed by breeders of annuals. The only way to address concerns about the feasibility of perennial grains is to carry out breeding programs with adequate resources on a sufficient time scale. A massive program for breeding perennial grains could be funded by diversion of a relatively small fraction of the world's agricultural research budget.     

Ecological Reconstruction of the Loess Plateau and Research of Soil Erosion and Dryland Agriculture

Ecological Reconstruction of the Loess Plateau and Research of Soil Erosion and Dryland Agriculture