Confidence intervals for directly standardized rates using mid‐p gamma intervals

Directly standardized rates continue to be an integral tool for presenting rates for diseases that are highly dependent on age, such as cancer. Statistically, these rates are modeled as a weighted sum of Poisson random variables. This is a difficult statistical problem, because there are k observed Poisson variables and k unknown means. The gamma confidence interval has been shown through simulations to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios, but it can be overly conservative. Previous modifications to that method have closer to nominal coverage on average, but they do not achieve the nominal coverage bound in all situations. Further, those modifications are not central intervals, and the upper coverage error rate can be substantially more than half the nominal error. Here we apply a mid‐p modification to the gamma confidence interval. Typical mid‐p methods forsake guaranteed coverage to get coverage that is sometimes higher and sometimes lower than the nominal coverage rate, depending on the values of the parameters. The mid‐p gamma interval does not have guaranteed coverage in all situations; however, in the (not rare) situations where the gamma method is overly conservative, the mid‐p gamma interval often has at least nominal coverage. The mid‐p gamma interval is especially appropriate when one wants a central interval, since simulations show that in many situations both the upper and lower coverage error rates are on average less than or equal to half the nominal error rate.     

Holocene vegetation and water level history in two bogs of the Cordillera de Talamanca, Costa Rica

Pollen records of Holocene sediment cores from the Costa Rican Cordillera de Talamanca (La Chonta bog, 2310 m and La Trinidad bog, 2700 m) show the postglacial development of the montane oak forest zone from ca. 9500 to 1500 yr BP. During the early Holocene (ca. 9500–700 yr BP), alder vegetation covered the La Chonta and La Trinidad bogs and their adjacent hills. The upper forest line is inferred to be at 2800–3000 m elevation. A Podocarpus-Quercus forest characterised the middle Holocene (ca. 7000–4500 yr BP). The upper forest line is located at >3000 m reaching the present-day altitudinal distribution. A Quercus forest characterised the late Holocene (ca. 4500–1500 yr BP). Compared to modern conditions, the early Holocene has similar average temperatures, but the moisture level was probably higher. Pollen evidence for the late Holocene indicates drier environmental conditions than today. In order to improve the paleoecological interpretation, we described the local vegetation and used moss samples as pollen traps at both montane bogs along strong soil moisture gradients.The Netherlands Centre for Geo-ecological Research, ICG     

Long‐term survival and diversification of an endemic Melitaea species in mountains of Iran and adjacent areas

Disjunct distribution patterns regularly resulted in the separation of different genetic lineages in glacial refugia. Recent patterns of survival and expansion have been often revealed by climatic niche modelling. We used the combination of genetic markers, geometric morphometry and climatic niche modelling to clear up the taxonomy and reconstruct the potential range of an endemic Iranian, taxonomically disputed Melitaea species in climatically different epochs. Our results show that this species (Melitaea abbas Gross and Ebert 1975, comb. n. = M. zagrosi Tóth and Varga syn. nova) is clearly separated from all taxa of the Melitaea phoebe species group and only occurs in Iran and Azerbaijan but were also predicted for some adjacent regions. Molecular markers and distribution modelling show consistently that this species should have had a long‐term survival in this area, and its range could have been slightly larger during the last glacial maximum than currently. Based on the studied molecular markers, three main groups in M. abbas can be recognized: those of steppic area of Azerbaijan, western Iran and northeastern Iran. Each group is characterized by own mitochondrial haplotypes, but also a high level of genetic diversity appears in the central part of the distribution area (Zagros Mts.).     

Anthracological evidence suggests naturalness of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus pinaster</Emphasis> in inland southwestern Iberia

The study of well-preserved archaeological charcoals in the pre-Roman Iron Age settlement of Castillejos II (Badajoz, Spain) is used to reconstruct environmental conditions and land-use practices in vegetation landscapes in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula before the arrival of Roman civilization. The results support that, while evergreen Quercus forests dominated during the Holocene, Pinus pinaster existed as a natural element of southwestern Iberian Peninsula vegetation. Although its presence could be linked to anthropogenic disturbance or fire history, it is suggested that P. pinaster populations survived during the Holocene in the region, mixed with oaks or in monospecific stands in mountain enclaves. This hypothesis contrasts with previous assumptions that P. pinaster was not autochthonous in the area.     

Palaeoecology of Upper Pleistocene-Holocene bryozoan and foraminiferal assemblages from Ku?dili (Kadiköy, Istanbul, Turkey)

Bryozoan and foraminiferal assemblages from a core drilled in the Kusdili (Kadiköy, Istanbul) Upper Pleistocene-Holocene sequence were studied. Assemblages are absent from the very basal and top parts but they are well represented all along the middle part of the sequence. All the species found presently live in the Mediterranean. In the area sedimentation seemingly started about 13?000 years ago in very shallow near-shore environments with the deposition of pebbly sediments rapidly evolving to mud. Near the base, the presence of erosional surface allows to recognize three successive sedimentary cycles. Bryozoan and foraminiferal assemblages found in the middle part of the sequence testify to a shallow water, estuarine or lagoonal paleo-environment, in which effects of low salinity waters, more obvious toward the top, could be related to the reestablishment of a connection between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea through the Bosphorus, about 7000 years BP.     

15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地发育及其碳动态

高海拔泥炭地是维护高原气候环境稳定的重要生态系统,由于其兼具高海拔和高寒的特点,对气候变化尤为敏感。若尔盖高原泥炭地是中国高海拔泥炭地集中分布区,碳储量丰富,由于方法学差异及数据缺乏,其碳储量估算仍存在一定程度的不确定性,对长时间尺度碳通量的模拟研究还较为匮乏。因此,以若尔盖高原泥炭地为研究对象,基于若尔盖高原泥炭地每千年的面积变化和碳累积速率重新评估若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量,并利用泥炭分解模型和碳通量重建模型探讨了15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳通量动态。研究结果表明,若尔盖高原泥炭地约从15000年开始发育,发育高峰期在12000-10000年和7000-5000年,泥炭累积速率范围为0.22-1.31 mm/a,平均值为0.56 mm/a;碳累积速率范围为13.4-77.2 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均碳累积速率为33.5 g C m^-2 a^-1,3000年至今碳累积速率最高,7000-6000年是碳累积速率次峰值时期;15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储存量达1.4 Pg（1 Pg=10¹⁵ g）,碳累积输入和碳累积释放分别为5.6 Pg和4.2 Pg;净碳平衡平均值为0.087 Tg（1 Tg=10¹² g）C/a,峰值出现在11000-10000年为0.295 Pg;在6000-2000年若尔盖泥炭地出现微弱碳源,最大值出现在5000-4000年,约为-0.034 Pg,净碳平衡在15000-11000年和4000年至今呈现上升趋势,而10000-4000年整体呈现下降趋势。总体而言,若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量丰富,是青藏高原东部重要的陆地生态系统碳库和碳汇,本研究将为我国高海拔泥炭地碳库保育提供一定的理论和数据支撑。     

Prokaryotes in the WAIS Divide ice core reflect source and transport changes between Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

We present the first long‐term, highly resolved prokaryotic cell concentration record obtained from a polar ice core. This record, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core, spanned from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene (EH) and showed distinct fluctuations in prokaryotic cell concentration coincident with major climatic states. The time series also revealed a ~1,500‐year periodicity with greater amplitude during the Last Deglaciation (LDG). Higher prokaryotic cell concentration and lower variability occurred during the LGM and EH than during the LDG. A sevenfold decrease in prokaryotic cell concentration coincided with the LGM/LDG transition and the global 19 ka meltwater pulse. Statistical models revealed significant relationships between the prokaryotic cell record and tracers of both marine (sea‐salt sodium [ssNa]) and burning emissions (black carbon [BC]). Collectively, these models, together with visual observations and methanosulfidic acid (MSA) measurements, indicated that the temporal variability in concentration of airborne prokaryotic cells reflected changes in marine/sea‐ice regional environments of the WAIS. Our data revealed that variations in source and transport were the most likely processes producing the significant temporal variations in WD prokaryotic cell concentrations. This record provided strong evidence that airborne prokaryotic cell deposition differed during the LGM, LDG, and EH, and that these changes in cell densities could be explained by different environmental conditions during each of these climatic periods. Our observations provide the first ice‐core time series evidence for a prokaryotic response to long‐term climatic and environmental processes.     

Abrupt Changes in Bosmina (Cladocera,Crustacea) Assemblages During the History of the Ostrowite Lake (Northern Poland)

During the 10000-year history of the Ostrowite Lake, there have been several episodes of change in dominance amongst species of the genus Bosmina. The dominants were alternately B.longirostris and Eubosmina spp. Amongst the subgenus Eubosmina, two species prevailed in different periods:Bosmina coregoni and Bosmina reflexa. The first species, Bosmina coregoni, is characterized by long antennae and short carapace mucrones, while the second one, Bosmina reflexa, by short antennae and very long mucrones. Bosmina reflexa was dominant at the beginning of the lake's history (Preboreal, 10000--9000 BP) and during the early Subboreal Period (5000–3500 BP). Only a small number of remains of Bosmina longispina(Eubosmina spp.) were present along the entire profile. Such strong changes in the domination of Bosmina species were observed for the first time in the sediments of Polish lakes. A similar transition from one species to another has been described in a few German lakes and was linked to climate changes. However, the changes in the Ostrowite Lake do not correlate with climate changes, but most probably, with changes in the lake's trophic level. This is suggested by the simultaneous increase of Bosmina reflexa and a good indicator of eutrophy, Bosmina longirostris.     

Vegetation history of Lago Battaglia (eastern Gargano coast,Apulia, Italy) during the middle-late Holocene

A pollen and charcoal record from Gargano (southern Italy) provides new information on the vegetation history and environmental change in southern Italy during the middle to late Holocene. The chronological framework is provided by six AMS radiocarbon dates carried out on plant macroremains. Pollen diagrams record a Mediterranean vegetation along the coastland and a stable mixed oak forest at higher elevations between ca. 5900 and 4200 cal b.p. A sharp and dramatic fall of tree pollen concentrations and a change in fire frequencies occurred from approximately 4200 cal b.p. suggesting a climate change towards drier conditions. This event is coherent with regional and extra-regional palaeoclimatic records that suggest that a mid-Holocene dry period was experienced in southern Italy, southern Spain, and perhaps further afield. Human impact on vegetation seems to have occurred since about 2700 cal b.p.