基于抚育间伐效应的长白落叶松人工林两阶段枯死模型

1972和1974年分别在黑龙江省江山娇林场及孟家岗林场设置10块长白落叶松人工林固定样地(8块抚育间伐样地、2块对照样地),采用连年复测数据,分析抚育间伐对人工长白落叶松样地枯死与单木枯死的影响.基于二分类变量Logistic回归,建立了样地枯死及样地内单木枯死概率的两阶段模型(Ⅰ:抚育间伐后样地水平枯死概率模型;Ⅱ:枯死样地中单木水平枯死概率模型),采用广义估计方程(GEE)方法对模型参数进行估计.根据敏感度和特异度曲线相交点确定枯死概率最优临界点.结果表明: 样地数据按照抚育间伐次数分为4组分别建模(模型1～模型4).在模型1中,地位指数、林分年龄的自然对数、抚育间伐年龄及强度为显著自变量;模型2～模型4采用主成分分析法建模,主成分包含林分年龄、每公顷株数、平均胸径及抚育间伐因子,说明抚育间伐因子对样地枯死概率有显著影响.抚育间伐对枯死样地中单木枯死概率无显著影响,单木枯死概率模型中显著性自变量为林分初植密度、年龄、林木胸径的倒数及林分中大于对象木的所有林木断面积之和.样地枯死概率模型及单木枯死概率模型Hosmer和Lemeshow拟合优度检验均不显著,模型AUC均在0.91以上,估计正确率均超过80%,说明模型拟合效果较好.     

Measure dynamics on a one-dimensional continuous trait space: theoretical foundations for adaptive dynamics

The measure dynamics approach to modelling single-species coevolution with a one-dimensional trait space is developed and compared to more traditional methods of adaptive dynamics and the Maximum Principle. It is assumed that individual fitness results from pairwise interactions together with a background fitness that depends only on total population size. When fitness functions are quadratic in the real variables parameterizing the one-dimensional traits of interacting individuals, the following results are derived. It is shown that among monomorphisms (i.e. measures supported on a single trait value), the continuously stable strategy (CSS) characterize those that are Lyapunov stable and attract all initial measures supported in an interval containing this trait value. In the cases where adaptive dynamics predicts evolutionary branching, convergence to a dimorphism is established. Extensions of these results to general fitness functions and/or multi-dimensional trait space are discussed.     

Mixture Markov regression model with application to mosquito surveillance data analysis

A mixture Markov regression model is proposed to analyze heterogeneous time series data. Mixture quasi‐likelihood is formulated to model time series with mixture components and exogenous variables. The parameters are estimated by quasi‐likelihood estimating equations. A modified EM algorithm is developed for the mixture time series model. The model and proposed algorithm are tested on simulated data and applied to mosquito surveillance data in Peel Region, Canada.     

A semiparametric mixture cure survival model for left‐truncated and right‐censored data

In follow‐up studies, the disease event time can be subject to left truncation and right censoring. Furthermore, medical advancements have made it possible for patients to be cured of certain types of diseases. In this article, we consider a semiparametric mixture cure model for the regression analysis of left‐truncated and right‐censored data. The model combines a logistic regression for the probability of event occurrence with the class of transformation models for the time of occurrence. We investigate two techniques for estimating model parameters. The first approach is based on martingale estimating equations (EEs). The second approach is based on the conditional likelihood function given truncation variables. The asymptotic properties of both proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies indicate that the conditional maximum‐likelihood estimator (cMLE) performs well while the estimator based on EEs is very unstable even though it is shown to be consistent. This is a special and intriguing phenomenon for the EE approach under cure model. We provide insights into this issue and find that the EE approach can be improved significantly by assigning appropriate weights to the censored observations in the EEs. This finding is useful in overcoming the instability of the EE approach in some more complicated situations, where the likelihood approach is not feasible. We illustrate the proposed estimation procedures by analyzing the age at onset of the occiput‐wall distance event for patients with ankylosing spondylitis.     

定量分析调控人类免疫缺陷病毒潜伏与激活的动力学机制

目的 治疗艾滋病最大的障碍在于无法根除人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）潜伏于人体细胞所形成的病毒存储库。构建描述病毒存储库建立分子机制的动力学模型需考虑生物体内的噪声环境和多重影响因素,本文通过一种全新的动力学结构分解方法将随机微分方程的确定性部分与随机性噪声分开,从而在仅需分析常微分方程不动点的情况下即可判断不同药物靶点的作用效果。方法 使用连续的随机微分方程构建了HIV转录过程的动力学模型,简化了描述系统所需方程的维度,增大了模型的可探索空间,在此基础上,通过计算得到的势能函数和概率分布函数直观表示病毒潜伏与激活的不同表达状态以及它们之间的关系。结果 定量分析了不同动力学参数对系统稳态和势函数的影响程度,分别得到了系统处于双稳态和单稳态时的参数范围,并将不同因素对动力系统分岔的影响程度与生物学实验结果对比,验证了本工作的理论基础。结论 本文突破了以往离散、随机的方法,可以通过常微分方程定量分析HIV转录调控的动力学机制,有利于推广到处理高维情况,进一步研究艾滋病在生物体内的发生发展,从而指导设计实验寻找临床上的治疗方案。     

激光与生物组织相互作用：光子迁移与生物传热理论

激光热疗中,激光与生物组织相互作用研究主要包含两方面：光子在生物组织中的迁移规律,以及光生扫热在生物组织在的传导。对前者的描述主要为,基于传输理论的解析法和Ｍｏｎｔｅ￣Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟,生物组织中光子迁移规律的研究能定量描述组织中的光分布,并进一步获得生物组织中的热分布;考虑到了生物组织特性,所建立了生物组织中温度场分布及变化规律。光子迁移与生物传热理论是研究激光热序不可分割的传热模型,全面描述了生     

Isolation and Study of Some Properties of Laccase from the Basidiomycetes Cerrena maxima

A new strain producing extracellular laccase (Cerrena maxima 0275) was found by screening of isolates of Basidiomycetes, and the dynamics of laccase biosynthesis by this strain was studied. The enzyme was purified to homogeneity. The molecular weight of the enzyme is 57 kD, and its pI is 3.5. The activity is constant at pH values in the range 3.0-5.0. The temperature optimum for activity is 50°C. The thermal stability of the laccase was studied. The catalytic and Michaelis constants for catechol, hydroquinone, sinapinic acid, and K₄ Fe(CN)₆ were determined. The standard redox potential of type 1 copper in the enzyme is 750 ± 5 mV. Thus, the investigated laccase is a high redox potential laccase.     

城市绿地对居民身心福祉的影响

城市绿地是人工与自然耦合的城市景观之一,是改善居民居住环境重要组成部分,更是提高居民身心健康的有效途径。以杭州主城区为研究对象,通过GIS技术对城市绿地遥感图像进行解译得到杭州主城区绿地空间布局图,同时,以人口密度为阻力要素,基于交通路网的500m网络距离可达范围内绿地数量和面积作为分类标准。通过对45个高、中、低不同档次的居民区进行问卷调查得到665份居民感知数据并进行统计整理。利用结构方程模型进行以绿地数量及游玩时间为标准的组间分析,区别不同组别的差异及其原因,分析城市绿地数量、面积,居民认知、动机,绿地吸引力等与居民身心健康福祉及满意度之间的关系。结果显示:城市绿地数量、居民游玩绿地次数时间等与居民福祉有显著的正向关系;居民对绿地作用的认知、去往绿地的动机进一步影响居民身心健康福祉;城市绿地的自身引力会激发居民去往绿地的积极性,从而增加去往绿地频次。另外,不同社会属性的个体对绿地需求不同,所产生的福祉效应及满意度也会有所差异。从增加居民区周围的街头绿地及邻里公园数量、提升绿地吸引力、提升居民对城市绿地作用的认知3个方面对城市绿地今后的发展规划提出建议。     

Selection on QTL and complex traits in complex environments

Understanding genetic variation for complex traits in heterogeneous environments is a fundamental problem in biology. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Fournier‐Level et al. ( 2013 ) analyse quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing ecologically important phenotypes in mapping populations of Arabidopsis thaliana grown in four habitats across its native European range. They used causal modelling to quantify the selective consequences of life history and morphological traits and QTL on components of fitness. They found phenology QTL colocalizing with known flowering time genes as well as novel loci. Most QTL influenced fitness via life history and size traits, rather than QTL having direct effects on fitness. Comparison of phenotypes among environments found no evidence for genetic trade‐offs for phenology or growth traits, but genetic trade‐offs for fitness resulted because flowering time had opposite fitness effects in different environments. These changes in QTL effects and selective consequences may maintain genetic variation among populations.