Flowering phenology, fruiting success and progressive deterioration of pollination in an early-flowering geophyte

Spatio-temporal patterns of snowmelt and flowering times affect fruiting success in Erythronium grandiflorum Pursh (Liliaceae) in subalpine western Colorado, USA. From 1990 to 1995, I measured the consistency across years of snowmelt patterns and flowering times along a permanent transect. In most years since 1993, I have monitored fruit set in temporal cohorts (early- to late-flowering groups of plants) at one site. To assess ‘pollination limitation’, I have also conducted supplemental hand-pollination experiments at various times through the blooming season. The onset of blooming is determined by snowmelt, with the earliest years starting a month before the latest years owing to variation in winter snowpack accumulation. Fruit set is diminished or prevented entirely by killing frosts in some years, most frequently but not exclusively for the earlier cohorts. When frosts do not limit fruit set, pollination limitation is frequent, especially in the earlier cohorts. Pollination limitation is strongest for middle cohorts: it tends to be negated by frost in early cohorts and ameliorated by continuing emergence of bumble-bee queens in later cohorts. This lily appears to be poorly synchronized with its pollinators. Across the years of the study, pollination limitation appears to be increasing, perhaps because the synchronization is getting worse.     

Conservation implications of adaptation to tropical climates from a historical perspective

Tropical climates and the biodiversity associated with them have long interested natural historians. Alexander von Humboldt inspired a generation of scientists, such as Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, to observe and study tropical ecosystems. More recently, the mid‐20th century saw Theodosius Dobzhansky and Daniel Janzen lay the foundations for studying adaptation to tropical climates. Now in the 21st century, we are beginning to realize the threats posed by current and future climate change to tropical populations which, despite relatively low levels of projected warming for low‐latitude regions, face potentially significant detrimental impacts. Building on the insights of researchers in decades and centuries past, improved understanding of tropical ecology, evolution and biogeography will help us to conceive how future global change will impact on biodiversity.     

Implications of climate change for potamodromous fishes

There is little understanding of how climate change will impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Since the mid 1970s, a decline in annual rainfall in south‐western Australia (a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot) has resulted in the rivers of the region undergoing severe reductions in surface flows (ca. 50%). There is universal agreement amongst Global Climate Models that rainfall will continue to decline in this region. Limited data are available on the movement patterns of the endemic freshwater fishes of south‐western Australia or on the relationship between their life histories and hydrology. We used this region as a model to determine how dramatic hydrological change may impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Migration patterns of fishes in the largest river in south‐western Australia were quantified over a 4 year period and were related to a number of key environmental variables including discharge, temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. Most of the endemic freshwater fishes were potamodromous, displaying lateral seasonal spawning migrations from the main channel into tributaries, and there were significant temporal differences in movement patterns between species. Using a model averaging approach, amount of discharge was clearly the best predictor of upstream and downstream movement for most species. Given past and projected reductions in surface flow and groundwater, the findings have major implications for future recruitment rates and population viabilities of potamodromous fishes. Freshwater ecosystems in drying climatic regions can only be managed effectively if such hydro‐ecological relationships are considered. Proactive management and addressing existing anthropogenic stressors on aquatic ecosystems associated with the development of surface and groundwater resources and land use is required to increase the resistance and resilience of potamodromous fishes to ongoing flow reductions.     

Genome size evolution is associated with climate seasonality and glucosinolates,but not life history,soil nutrients or range size,across a clade of mustards

Background and AimsWe investigate patterns of evolution of genome size across a morphologically and ecologically diverse clade of Brassicaceae, in relation to ecological and life history traits. While numerous hypotheses have been put forward regarding autecological and environmental factors that could favour small vs. large genomes, a challenge in understanding genome size evolution in plants is that many hypothesized selective agents are intercorrelated.MethodsWe contribute genome size estimates for 47 species of Streptanthus Nutt. and close relatives, and take advantage of many data collections for this group to assemble data on climate, life history, soil affinity and composition, geographic range and plant secondary chemistry to identify simultaneous correlates of variation in genome size in an evolutionary framework. We assess models of evolution across clades and use phylogenetically informed analyses as well as model selection and information criteria approaches to identify variables that can best explain genome size variation in this clade.Key ResultsWe find differences in genome size and heterogeneity in its rate of evolution across subclades of Streptanthus and close relatives. We show that clade-wide genome size is positively associated with climate seasonality and glucosinolate compounds. Model selection and information criteria approaches identify a best model that includes temperature seasonality and fraction of aliphatic glucosinolates, suggesting a possible role for genome size in climatic adaptation or a role for biotic interactions in shaping the evolution of genome size. We find no evidence supporting hypotheses of life history, range size or soil nutrients as forces shaping genome size in this system.ConclusionsOur findings suggest climate seasonality and biotic interactions as potential forces shaping the evolution of genome size and highlight the importance of evaluating multiple factors in the context of phylogeny to understand the effect of possible selective agents on genome size.     

Thermal ecology and baseline energetic requirements of a large‐bodied ectotherm suggest resilience to climate change

1. Most studies on how rising temperatures will impact terrestrial ectotherms have focused on single populations or multiple sympatric species. Addressing the thermal and energetic implications of climatic variation on multiple allopatric populations of a species will help us better understand how a species may be impacted by altered climates.
2. We used eight years of thermal and behavioral data collected from four populations of Pacific rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) living in climatically distinct habitat types (inland and coastal) to determine the field‐active and laboratory‐preferred body temperatures, thermoregulatory metrics, and maintenance energetic requirements of snakes from each population.
3. Physical models showed that thermal quality was best at coastal sites, but inland snakes thermoregulated more accurately despite being in more thermally constrained environments. Projected increases of 1 and 2°C in ambient temperature result in an increase in overall thermal quality at both coastal and inland sites.
4. Population differences in modeled standard metabolic rate estimates were driven by body size and not field‐active body temperature, with inland snakes requiring 1.6× more food annually than coastal snakes.
5. All snakes thermoregulated with high accuracy, suggesting that small increases in ambient temperature are unlikely to impact the maintenance energetic requirements of individual snakes and that some species of large‐bodied reptiles may be robust to modest thermal perturbations under conservative climate change predictions.

​     

Turnover and trends in butterfly communities on two British tidal islands: stochastic influences and deterministic factors

Aim Community trends were investigated for two small islands and two local mainland butterfly communities within the UK over a period of 20–30 years. Location Hilbre Island off the Wirral Peninsula at 53.33° N, 3.10° W; Lindisfarne, an island off the Northumberland coast at 56.41° N, 1.48° W; Leighton Moss at 54.08° N, 2.26° W; Wyre Forest at 52.23° N, 2.14° W, UK. Methods Butterfly species data were collected on Hilbre and two mainland sites (Leighton Moss and Wyre Forest) from 1983 to 2006, and on Lindisfarne from 1977 to 2006, as part of the National Habitat Survey, the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and ‘Butterflies for the New Millennium Atlas’ recording. Matrices of associations (Sokal and Michener’s matching coefficient S_SM; resemblance coefficient) were computed between years and subject to non‐metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and Mantel tests. The pattern of extinctions and colonizations at sites were examined, their heterogeneity tested by applying a Friedman test to fractional incidences for the same years. Regression analysis (multiple regression and logit regression) was used to relate butterfly numbers and incidences to climate variables, time and previous records. Results Significant community trends based on population counts and species’ incidences were found for all four sites. There was a significant climatic signal for Hilbre; although this was not apparent for the remaining sites, significant associations occurred between records for a number of species and climatic variables at all sites. Substantial turnover of species on the islands was inversely related to numbers of records for species but not to their conspicuousness to recorders. Main conclusions We argue that time trends are widespread in butterfly communities, even for relatively short periods; they are largely generated by stochastic influences rather than by more substantive factors such as climate change. Potential biases in surveying and recording history are shown to be unlikely. A clear climate signal was found only for the small Hilbre Island, for which there was also evidence for the significant influence of colonization capability of individual source species. We conclude that for many species, small islands will be sinks or pseudosinks and their ‘populations’ vulnerable to small changes in source–sink dynamics.     

Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo‐West Pacific

The potential of reef‐building corals to adapt to increasing sea‐surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region‐wide scale. We used individual‐based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo‐West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs—most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef—exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid “business‐as‐usual” warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present‐day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations.