Low genetic diversity and population connectivity fuel vulnerability to climate change for the Tertiary relict pine Pinus bungeana

Endemic species are important components of regional biodiversity and hold the key to understanding local adaptation and evolutionary processes that shape species distributions. This study investigated the biogeographic history of a relict conifer Pinus bungeana Zucc. ex Endl. confined to central China. We examined genetic diversity in P. bungeana using genotyping-by-sequencing and chloroplast and mitochondrial DNA markers. We performed spatial and temporal inference of recent genetic and demographic changes, and dissected the impacts of geography and environmental gradients on population differentiation. We then projected P. bungeana's risk of decline under future climates. We found extremely low nucleotide diversity (average π 0.0014), and strong population structure (global F_ST 0.234) even at regional scales, reflecting long-term isolation in small populations. The species experienced severe bottlenecks in the early Pliocene and continued to decline in the Pleistocene in the western distribution, whereas the east expanded recently. Local adaptation played a small (8%) but significant role in population diversity. Low genetic diversity in fragmented populations makes the species highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in marginal and relict populations. We suggest that conservation efforts should focus on enhancing gene pool and population growth through assisted migration within each genetic cluster to reduce the risk of further genetic drift and extinction.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from silage maize fields under different mineral nitrogen fertilizer and slurry applications

Intensive dairy farming systems are a large source of emission of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O), because of high nitrogen (N) application rates to grasslands and silage maize fields. The objective of this study was to compare measured N₂O emissions from two different soils to default N₂O emission factors, and to look at alternative emission factors based on (i) the N uptake in the crop and (ii) the N surplus of the system, i.e., N applied minus N uptake by the crop. Twelve N fertilization regimes were implemented on a sandy soil (typic endoaquoll) and a clay soil (typic endoaquept) in the Netherlands, and N₂O emissions were measured throughout the growing season. Highest cumulative fluxes of 1.92 and 6.81 kg N₂O-N ha^–1 for the sandy soil and clay soil were measured at the highest slurry application rate of 250 kg N ha^–1. Background emissions from unfertilized soils were 0.14 and 1.52 kg N₂O-N ha^–1 for the sandy soil and the clay soil, respectively. Emission factors for the sandy soil averaged 0.08, 0.51 and 0.26% of the N applied via fertilizer, slurry, and combinations of both. For the clay soil, these numbers were 1.18, 1.21 and 1.69%, respectively. Surplus N was linearly related to N₂O emission for both the sandy soil (R²=0.60) and the clay soil (R²=0.40), indicating a possible alternative emission factor. We concluded that, in our study, N₂O emission was not linearly related to N application rates, and varied with type and application rate of fertilizer. Finally, the relatively high emission from the clay soil indicates that background emissions might have to be taken into account in N₂O budgets.     

Increase of atmospheric CO2 promotes phytoplankton productivity

It is usually thought that unlike terrestrial plants, phytoplankton will not show a significant response to an increase of atmospheric CO₂. Here we suggest that this view may be biased by a neglect of the effects of carbon (C) assimilation on the pH and the dissociation of the C species. We show that under eutrophic conditions, productivity may double as a result of doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Although in practice productivity increase will usually be less, we still predict a productivity increase of up to 40% in marine species with a low affinity for bicarbonate. In eutrophic freshwater systems doubling of atmospheric CO₂ may result in an increase of the productivity of more than 50%. Freshwaters with low alkalinity appeared to be very sensitive to atmospheric CO₂ elevation. Our results suggest that the aquatic C sink may increase more than expected, and that nuisance phytoplankton blooms may be aggravated at elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time‐scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale

Increased atmospheric CO₂ often but not always leads to large decreases in leaf conductance. Decreased leaf conductance has important implications for a number of components of CO₂ responses, from the plant to the global scale. All of the factors that are sensitive to a change in soil moisture, either amount or timing, may be affected by increased CO₂. The list of potentially sensitive processes includes soil evaporation, run-off, decomposition, and physiological adjustments of plants, as well as factors such as canopy development and the composition of the plant and microbial communities. Experimental evidence concerning ecosystem-scale consequences of the effects of CO₂ on water use is only beginning to accumulate, but the initial indication is that, in water-limited areas, the effects of CO₂-induced changes in leaf conductance are comparable in importance to those of CO,₂-induced changes in photosynthesis. Above the leaf scale, a number of processes interact to modulate the response of canopy or regional evapotran-spiration to increased CO₂. While some components of these processes tend to amplify the sensitivity of evapo-transpiration to altered leaf conductance, the most likely overall pattern is one in which the responses of canopy and regional evapotranspiration are substantially smaller than the responses of canopy conductance. The effects of increased CO₂ on canopy evapotranspiration are likely to be smallest in aerodynamically smooth canopies with high leaf conductances. Under these circumstances, which are largely restricted to agriculture, decreases in evapotranspiration may be only one-fourth as large as decreases in canopy conductance. Decreased canopy conductances over large regions may lead to altered climate, including increased temperature and decreased precipitation. The simulation experiments to date predict small effects globally, but these could be important regionally, especially in combination with radiative (greenhouse) effects of increased CO₂.     

Islands: stability, diversity, conservation

Islands present both a diversity and a stability paradox. They are often highly species-poor but have considerable biological interest in terms of extraordinary endemic genera and taxonomically isolated groups. They appear to be stable, as in some cases these organisms have persisted for many millions of years, and having an oceanic climate, extreme climatic events may be comparatively rare. However, when subject to extrinsic (anthropogenic) disturbance they do not appear to be stable, but often suffer catastrophic ecological change. These apparent paradoxes are resolved when it is realized that all these features are consequences of the same island characteristics: biotic isolation and oceanicity. As a result of these two characteristics, far oceanic islands are quantitatively different from continental systems in the nature of their ecological processes, which appear to give rise to an extreme punctuated equilibrium model of evolutionary change. Endemics may be ancient relict endemics displaying prolonged stasis and persistence, or products of adaptive radiation representing rapid punctuational events. A process-based definition of a relict endemic (palaeoendemic) is one whose founding lineage (i.e. the original continental source taxon) has not left any descendents. A corollary of this definition is that the time of divergence between an endemic and its continental sister-group should predate the colonization of the island by the now endemic lineage. An example is Dicksonia arborescens which has been on St Helena for at least 9 Myrs and no longer occurs in the likely source area of Africa. These relict endemics, frequent on islands, are important as the last remnants of tranches of biodiversity that have vanished elsewhere. Island conservation strategies require an integrated understanding of both sides of the diversity and stability paradox so that both island processes and island organisms can be conserved.     

Distribution,diversity and conservation of Anostraca (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) in southern Africa

Southern Africa is defined here as Africa south of the Zambezi and Kunene Rivers. Here, annual average rainfall, rainfall season, and effective temperature are climatic factors which influence anostracan distribution. The type of temporary pool also appears to have some effect on distribution. Areas of high species richness are not confined to any particular climatic region and such areas occur in arid, montane and subtropical regions of southern Africa. Forty-six anostracan species have been recorded from the subcontinent and 80% of these are endemic. IUCN Red Data assessment of species revealed that two species can be considered 'Critically Endangered', while a further four are 'Endangered', and three are 'Vulnerable'. Many parts of southern Africa have been inadequately sampled but in South Africa, where the anostracans are relatively well known, temporary pool inhabitants are threatened mainly by agriculture, urbanization, pollution and pesticides. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of temperature on phenological synchrony and altitudinal distribution of jumping plant lice (Hemiptera: Psylloidea) on dwarf willow (Salix lapponum) in Norway

Summary.

• 1 The geographical distributions of three species of jumping plant lice (psyllids) along an altitudinal transect (988–1300 m a.s.l.) in southern Norway were restricted within the range of their host plant Salix lapponum. One species, Cacopsylla propinqua, occurred at all sampling locations between 988 and 1222 m, whereas C.palmeni was confined to higher altitudes (1153–1222 m) and C.brunneipennis was more abundant at lower altitudes (988–1101 m).
• 2 C.brunneipennis and C.palmeni developed only on female catkins. Development times of catkins and psyllids were similar (approximately 50 days) and successful psyllid development depended on close phenological synchrony with catkins.
• 3 Thermal requirements for development of female catkins were greater at low altitude (988 m) compared with higher altitude (1222 m), showing local adaptation of S.lapponum to altitude. In general, thermal requirements of psyllids were less than those of catkins at the same location. C.brunneipennis had higher thermal requirements than C.palmeni.
• 4 Field experiments, using polythene enclosures to elevate temperatures at two sites at different altitudes (by 0.6–1.4 deg. C), showed that insects had an enhanced relative rate of development under elevated temperatures compared with their host plants.
• 5 Indices of phenological synchrony were calculated from thermal requirements of psyllids and catkins. Under elevated temperatures, phenological synchrony decreased at both sites. This resulted in the subsequent development of smaller adult insects at low altitude, although at higher altitude, insects developing under elevated temperatures were larger and had a higher survival rate compared with controls.
• 6 Effects of temperature on phenological synchrony may explain the limits to the geographical range of psyllids. The consequences of climate change on psyllid populations will depend on the effects of decreased phenological synchrony on insect development and this may differ within the insect's geographical range.