基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究

采用Spot VEGETATION 逐旬NDVI数据、1 ∶ 100万植被类型图和气象站资料,在掌握近10a三江源地区植被变化趋势基础上,分不同植被类型探讨植被生长对气候变化的响应机制,并通过分离气候要素与人类活动对NDVI的贡献,定量评估生态保护与建设工程的实施效果。结果表明,区域尺度上,三江源地区2001-2010年植被生长呈好转趋势,植被增长从东南向西北递减;在10a时间尺度上,气候变化是影响植被生长的决定性因素,但人类活动可在短期内加快植被变化速率,气候要素和人类活动对植被生长的贡献分别为79.32%和20.68%;降水和气温对植被生长的影响程度相当,其中受春季和秋季的降水和气温影响最大,尤其是植被生长季前后一个月(4月份和10月份)的气候条件;与林地和灌丛相比,高寒草地受气候条件的抑制作用更为明显,其中高寒草甸受气候变化的影响最大,NDVI与降水和气温均具有较高相关性,高寒草原受气温的影响比较大,而高山植被受降水的抑制作用更为明显;在气候条件利于植被生长的趋势下,2001-2010年三江源地区的人类活动对生态环境表现出正影响,实测NDVI_max与模拟NDVI_max之间的残差为0.0863,表明生态保护与建设行动取得初步成效,其中黄河源区东部和长江源区通天河两侧的生态恢复效益最为明显,而在唐古拉山、昆仑山、布青山、阿尼玛卿山等山脉的周边地区,人类活动对生态环境仍表现为负影响;时间尺度上人类活动对植被的正影响呈现出下降趋势,2001-2010年NDVI_max残差的回归斜率为-0.0039,表明生态项目实施的短期行为严重,生态建设的效果缺乏长效性。     

吉林老白山鱼鳞云杉树轮蓝光强度和轮宽指数与气候响应关系随海拔变化的对比

树轮数据是晚全新世古气候研究中最重要的代用指标。树轮参数各具优缺点, 蓝光强度(BI)是一种获取成本低廉的最大晚材密度(MXD)的光学替代参数, 其蓝色光反射率或强度最小值(256-BI)与相应的MXD值高度相关, 被很多的学者认为是树轮气候学研究中一个具有重要潜能的新兴参数。该研究以吉林老白山3个海拔(900、1 200和1 500 m)的鱼鳞云杉(Picea jezoensis)为例, 分析鱼鳞云杉的BI及轮宽指数(RWI)与气候因子的响应差异, 以期为BI参数在树轮气候学的进一步应用提供参考。结果表明: 不同海拔鱼鳞云杉BI或RWI对气候的响应趋势基本一致。BI与温度主要呈正相关关系, 而RWI与温度主要呈负相关关系, 其中BI与当年夏季及生长季最高温度显著正相关, 而RWI (低、中海拔)与全年平均气温、当年生长季和全年最低温度显著负相关。BI与当年夏季标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)显著负相关, RWI与夏季SPEI负相关关系较弱或为正相关; BI和RWI几乎相反的生长-气候关系可能是早、晚材权衡关系的体现。研究区域鱼鳞云杉的BI参数可能与年轮宽度记录不同的气候信号, 在空间尺度上对于当年夏季降水、最高温度以及SPEI的响应好于传统宽度指标。BI与主要气候因子相关关系的时间稳定性好于RWI, 因此, BI在树轮气候学的研究中具有一定的应用潜能。     

In situ adaptive response to climate and habitat quality variation: spatial and temporal variation in European badger (Meles meles) body weight

Variation in climatic and habitat conditions can affect populations through a variety of mechanisms, and these relationships can act at different temporal and spatial scales. Using post‐mortem badger body weight records from 15 878 individuals captured across the Republic of Ireland (7224 setts across ca. 15 000 km²; 2009–2012), we employed a hierarchical multilevel mixed model to evaluate the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) and habitat quality (landscape suitability), while controlling for local abundance (unique badgers caught/sett/year). Body weight was affected strongly by temperature across a number of temporal scales (preceding month or season), with badgers being heavier if preceding temperatures (particularly during winter/spring) were warmer than the long‐term seasonal mean. There was less support for rainfall across different temporal scales, although badgers did exhibit heavier weights when greater rainfall occurred one or 2 months prior to capture. Badgers were also heavier in areas with higher landscape habitat quality, modulated by the number of individuals captured per sett, consistent with density‐dependent effects reducing weights. Overall, the mean badger body weight of culled individuals rose during the study period (2009–2012), more so for males than for females. With predicted increases in temperature, and rainfall, augmented by ongoing agricultural land conversion in this region, we project heavier individual badger body weights in the future. Increased body weight has been associated with higher fecundity, recruitment and survival rates in badgers, due to improved food availability and energetic budgets. We thus predict that climate change could increase the badger population across the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, we emphasize that, locally, populations could still be vulnerable to extreme weather variability coupled with detrimental agricultural practice, including population management.     

Using next-generation sequencing for molecular reconstruction of past Arctic vegetation and climate

Palaeoenvironments and former climates are typically inferred from pollen and macrofossil records. This approach is time-consuming and suffers from low taxonomic resolution and biased taxon sampling. Here, we test an alternative DNA-based approach utilizing the P6 loop in the chloroplast trnL (UAA) intron; a short (13–158 bp) and variable region with highly conserved flanking sequences. For taxonomic reference, a whole trnL intron sequence database was constructed from recently collected material of 842 species, representing all widespread and/or ecologically important taxa of the species-poor arctic flora. The P6 loop alone allowed identification of all families, most genera (>75%) and one-third of the species, thus providing much higher taxonomic resolution than pollen records. The suitability of the P6 loop for analysis of samples containing degraded ancient DNA from a mixture of species is demonstrated by high-throughput parallel pyrosequencing of permafrost-preserved DNA and reconstruction of two plant communities from the last glacial period. Our approach opens new possibilities for DNA-based assessment of ancient as well as modern biodiversity of many groups of organisms using environmental samples.     

The relationship between the reduction of nonstructural carbohydrate induced by defoliator and the growth and mortality of trees

Large scale herbivorous insect outbreaks can cause death of regional forests, and the events are expected to be exacerbated with climate change. Mortality of forest and woodland plants would cause a series of serious consequences, such as decrease in vegetation production, shifts in ecosystem structure and function, and transformation of forest function from a net carbon sink into a net carbon source. There is thus a need to better understand the impact of insects on trees. Defoliation by insect pests mainly reduces photosynthesis (source decrease) and increases carbon consumption (sink increase), and hence causes reduction of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC). When the reduction in NSC reaches to a certain level, trees would die of carbon starvation. External environment and internal compensatory mechanisms can also positively or negatively influence the process of tree death. At present, the research of carbon starvation is a hotspot because the increase of tree mortality globally with climate change, and carbon starvation is considered as one of the dominating physiological mechanisms for explaining tree death. In this study, we reviewed the definition of carbon starvation, and the relationships between the reduction of NSC induced by defoliation and the growth and death of trees, and the relationships among insect outbreaks, leaf loss and climate change. We also presented the potential directions of future studies on insect-caused defoliation and tree mortality.     

近20年亚欧大陆植被指数(NDVI)对大尺度气候变化的敏感性

利用1982～2000年4～10月的AVHRR-NDVI数据,分析了大尺度的气候(温度)变化对欧亚大陆植被状况的影响.分析方法为奇异值分解,从温度和NDVI的年际变化中检测出二者最重要和最密切的大尺度空间相关特征.用每个奇异值的平方占总的协方差平方和的比例(解释率),可以度量每对模态的重要性.春季(4和5月)、夏季和秋季(9和10月)的解释率分别是60.9%、39.5%和24.6%,这说明整体上春季植被状况对温度的敏感性高于夏季和秋季.奇异值分解的显著模态中心是二者关系最密切的地区,也就是NDVI对温度最敏感的地区,春季为西西伯利亚和东欧东北部,敏感性为 0.308 0 NDVI/℃;夏季没有特别突出的敏感中心,选择与计算春季相同格点数的高值中心,其敏感性为 0.248 0 NDVI/℃;秋季敏感中心在亚洲东部高纬度地区,相同格点大小范围(110°～140° E,55°～65°N)平均敏感性为 0.087 5 NDVI/℃.这种大尺度的NDVI-气温的关系及其敏感性非常稳定,并不随使用的NDVI的空间分辨率的改变而改变.     

气候变化背景下基于MaxEnt模型的刺梨潜在适生区分布预测

为阐明气候变化背景下刺梨(Rosa roxburghii)在中国的潜在适生区分布,该研究基于刺梨的自然分布数据及当代(1960～1990)、未来(21世纪50年代及70年代)气候因子数据,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了当前和未来气候情景下刺梨在中国的潜在适生区,并确定影响其地理分布的主要气候因子.结果表明:(1)...     

The role of protected areas in land use/land cover change and the carbon cycle in the conterminous United States

Protected areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous United States from 1700 to 2005. More than 3 million km² of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700–2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non‐PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001–2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large‐scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs.     

Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans‐Saharan migrant birds?

The life cycles of plants and animals are changing around the world in line with the predictions originated from hypotheses concerning the impact of global warming and climate change on biological systems. Commonly, the search for ecological mechanisms behind the observed changes in bird phenology has focused on the analysis of climatic patterns from the species breeding grounds. However, the ecology of bird migration suggests that the spring arrival of long‐distance migrants (such as trans‐Saharan birds) is more likely to be influenced by climate conditions in wintering areas given their direct impact on the onset of migration and its progression. We tested this hypothesis by analysing the first arrival dates (FADs) of six trans‐Saharan migrants (cuckoo Cuculus canorus, swift Apus apus, hoopoe Upupa epops, swallow Hirundo rustica, house martin Delichon urbica and nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos), in a western Mediterranean area since from 1952 to 2003. By means of multiple regression analyses, FADs were analysed in relation to the monthly temperature and precipitation patterns of five African climatic regions south of the Sahara where species are thought to overwinter and from the European site from where FADs were collected. We obtained significant models for five species explaining 9–41% of the variation in FADs. The interpretation of the models suggests that: (1) The climate in wintering quarters, especially the precipitation, has a stronger influence on FADs than that in the species' potential European breeding grounds. (2) The accumulative effects of climate patterns prior to migration onset may be of considerable importance since those climate variables that served to summarize climate patterns 12 months prior to the onset of migration were selected by final models. (3) Temperature and precipitation in African regions are likely to affect departure decision in the species studied through their indirect effects on food availability and the build‐up of reserves for migration. Our results concerning the factors that affect the arrival times of trans‐Saharan migrants indicate that the effects of climate change are more complex than previously suggested, and that these effects might have an interacting impact on species ecology, for example by reversing ecological pressures during species' life cycles.     

气候环境因子和捕捞压力对南海北部带鱼渔获量变动的影响

带鱼(Trichiurus japonicas)是南海北部的重要经济鱼类,其渔获量的变化不仅与捕捞压力有关,还与气候环境变化有关.为了研究气候变化和捕捞对南海北部带鱼渔获量变动的影响,使用长时间序列渔业统计资料和气候变化数据对1956-2006年的南海北部带鱼渔获量变动进行了分析.南海北部的带鱼渔获量变化可划分成因捕捞效应所产生的趋势变化和因气候环境变化所导致的渔获量变动.捕捞效应所产生的趋势变化可用Fox模型拟合,Fox模型拟合结果显示南海北部带鱼渔获量与捕捞努力量关系显著(P＜0.01),说明捕捞压力的增长显著影响到南海北部带鱼渔获量的变化.移除捕捞效应所产生的趋势变化后,渔获量变动与中国南方降雨、南海北部海表水温、南海北部夏季季风以及南海北部冬季季风等气候因子呈显著正偏相关(P＜0.04),与热带气旋影响指数呈显著负偏相关(P＜0.03),这种相关说明南海北部带鱼渔获量变动还受气候环境因子的影响.南海北部带鱼渔获量可用捕捞努力量和气候变量来拟合,且拟合效果显著(R2=0.958,P＜0.01),表明南海北部带鱼渔获量的变动归因于捕捞压力的单调增长和气候环境的变化.在南海北部的捕捞压力维持在现有水平下,未来的气候变化和人类活动引起营养盐的增加都可能有利于南海北部带鱼渔业产量的增加,且由于未来极端天气事件的频繁发生,可能还会引起带鱼渔获量的变动幅度加剧.