Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species'' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the ‘alternative prey hypothesis’ (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.     

Do different rates of gene flow underlie variation in phenotypic and phenological clines in a montane grasshopper community?

Species responses to environmental change are likely to depend on existing genetic and phenotypic variation, as well as evolutionary potential. A key challenge is to determine whether gene flow might facilitate or impede genomic divergence among populations responding to environmental change, and if emergent phenotypic variation is dependent on gene flow rates. A general expectation is that patterns of genetic differentiation in a set of codistributed species reflect differences in dispersal ability. In less dispersive species, we predict greater genetic divergence and reduced gene flow. This could lead to covariation in life‐history traits due to local adaptation, although plasticity or drift could mirror these patterns. We compare genome‐wide patterns of genetic structure in four phenotypically variable grasshopper species along a steep elevation gradient near Boulder, Colorado, and test the hypothesis that genomic differentiation is greater in short‐winged grasshopper species, and statistically associated with variation in growth, reproductive, and physiological traits along this gradient. In addition, we estimate rates of gene flow under competing demographic models, as well as potential gene flow through surveys of phenological overlap among populations within a species. All species exhibit genetic structure along the elevation gradient and limited gene flow. The most pronounced genetic divergence appears in short‐winged (less dispersive) species, which also exhibit less phenological overlap among populations. A high‐elevation population of the most widespread species, Melanoplus sanguinipes, appears to be a sink population derived from low elevation populations. While dispersal ability has a clear connection to the genetic structure in different species, genetic distance does not predict growth, reproductive, or physiological trait variation in any species, requiring further investigation to clearly link phenotypic divergence to local adaptation.     

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.     

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast‐growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.     

In a comfort zone and beyond—Ecological plasticity of key marine mediators

Copepods of the genus Calanus are the key components of zooplankton. Understanding their response to a changing climate is crucial to predict the functioning of future warmer high‐latitude ecosystems. Although specific Calanus species are morphologically very similar, they have different life strategies and roles in ecosystems. In this study, C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis were thoroughly studied with regard to their plasticity in morphology and ecology both in their preferred original water mass (Atlantic vs. Arctic side of the Polar Front) and in suboptimal conditions (due to, e.g., temperature, turbidity, and competition in Hornsund fjord). Our observations show that “at the same place and time,” both species can reach different sizes, take on different pigmentation, be in different states of population development, utilize different reproductive versus lipid accumulation strategies, and thrive on different foods. Size was proven to be a very mutable morphological trait, especially with regard to reduced length of C. glacialis. Both species exhibited pronounced red pigmentation when inhabiting their preferred water mass. In other domains, C. finmarchicus individuals tended to be paler than C. glacialis individuals. Gonad maturation and population development indicated mixed reproductive strategies, although a surprisingly similar population age structure of the two co‐occurring species in the fjord was observed. Lipid accumulation was high and not species‐specific, and its variability was due to diet differences of the populations. According to the stable isotope composition, both species had a more herbivorous diatom‐based diet in their original water masses. While the diet of C. glacialis was rather consistent among the domains studied, C. finmarchicus exhibited much higher variability in its feeding history (based on lipid composition). Our results show that the plasticity of both Calanus species is indeed impressive and may be regulated differently, depending on whether they live in their “comfort zone” or beyond it.     

Genetic structure and life history are key factors in species distribution models of spiny lobsters

AimWe incorporated genetic structure and life history phase in species distribution models (SDMs) constructed for a widespread spiny lobster, to reveal local adaptations specific to individual subspecies and predict future range shifts under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.LocationIndo‐West Pacific.MethodsMaxEnt was used to construct present‐day SDMs for the spiny lobster Panulirus homarus and individually for the three genetically distinct subspecies of which it comprises. SDMs incorporated both sea surface and benthic (seafloor) climate layers to recreate discrete influences of these habitats during the drifting larval and benthic juvenile and adult life history phases. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to infer environmental variables to which individual subspecies were adapted. SDM projections of present‐day habitat suitability were compared with predictions for the year 2,100, under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.ResultsIn the PCA, salinity best explained P. h. megasculptus habitat suitability, compared with current velocity in P. h. rubellus and sea surface temperature in P. h. homarus. Drifting and benthic life history phases were adapted to different combinations of sea surface and benthic environmental variables considered. Highly suitable habitats for benthic phases were spatially enveloped within more extensive sea surface habitats suitable for drifting larvae. SDMs predicted that present‐day highly suitable habitats for P. homarus will decrease by the year 2,100.Main conclusionsIncorporating genetic structure in SDMs showed that individual spiny lobster subspecies had unique adaptations, which could not be resolved in species‐level models. The use of sea surface and benthic climate layers revealed the relative importance of environmental variables during drifting and benthic life history phases. SDMs that included genetic structure and life history were more informative in predictive models of climate change effects.     

Impacts of soil temperature,phenology and plant community composition on invertebrate herbivory in a natural warming experiment

Species and community-level responses to warming are well documented, with plants and invertebrates known to alter their range, phenology or composition as temperature increases. The effects of warming on biotic interactions are less clearly understood, but can have consequences that cascade through ecological networks. Here, we used a natural soil temperature gradient of 5–35°C in the Hengill geothermal valley, Iceland, to investigate the effects of temperature on plant community composition and plant–invertebrate interactions. We quantified the level of invertebrate herbivory on the plant community across the temperature gradient and the interactive effects of temperature, plant phenology (i.e. development stage) and vegetation community composition on the probability of herbivory for three ubiquitous plant species, Cardamine pratensis, Cerastium fontanum and Viola palustris. We found that the percentage cover of graminoids and forbs increased, while the amount of litter decreased, with increasing soil temperature. Invertebrate herbivory also increased with soil temperature at the plant community level, but this was underpinned by different effects of temperature on herbivory for individual plant species, mediated by the seasonal development of plants and the composition of the surrounding vegetation. This illustrates the importance of considering the development stage of organisms in climate change research given the variable effects of temperature on susceptibility to herbivory at different ontogenetic stages.     

秦巴山地NPP及对气候变化响应的多维地带性与暖温带-亚热带界线

秦巴山地位于我国的南北过渡带,对我国生态地理格局产生重要影响。为了探索秦巴山地植被净第一性生产力(NPP,Net Primary Productivity)的时空格局及其气候响应的多样性和复杂性,为我国暖温带-亚热带界线的具体分布提供新的佐证,基于2000—2015年的MOD17A3的地表植被NPP数据和秦巴山地93个气象站点数据,从经度、纬度、海拔、坡向多个维度研究了秦巴山地地表植被NPP的分布及与气候因子的关系。结果表明:从2000—2015年,(1)秦巴山地中低山地区,自北向南随纬度降低,地表植被多年平均NPP呈现增加的趋势,体现了纬度地带性;年均NPP与温度的关系由负相关变为正相关,转折点出现在汉江;与降水的相关性减弱。(2)自西向东多年平均NPP值先增加后减少,秦岭一线地表植被年均NPP与温度由正相关变为负相关,与降水主要呈正相关,相关性先增加后减少。(3)随高度的增加,秦巴山地多年NPP值及增长率均呈现先增加后减少的趋势。(4)秦岭和大巴山多年平均NPP均呈现增加趋势,但是秦岭增长较大巴山更明显;2000m以下,秦岭南坡增长率明显高于北坡,大巴山北坡增长率明显高于南坡;2000—3000m,秦岭南北坡差异较小,但是大巴山差异明显;中山地区(1000—2500m),秦岭年均NPP与气温呈负相关,而大巴山则呈现正相关或弱相关;秦岭地区年均NPP与降水的相关性整体强于大巴山地区。这就意味着全球变暖、气温升高对秦岭植被尤其是中低山地区的植被产生不利影响,但是对大巴山则有利,而前者植被生长主要与降水增加有关。这也说明了基于汉江为界的秦岭和大巴山无论是地表植被NPP的均值还是其南北坡差异以及对气候因子的响应呈现了明显的差异,而汉江作为中山地区植被NPP与气温相关性由正相关性到负相关的转折点,与降水的关系由弱相关到正相关的转折点,更合适作为南北分界线。