Joint mean–covariance random effect model for longitudinal data

In this paper, we consider the inherent association between mean and covariance in the joint mean–covariance modeling and propose a joint mean–covariance random effect model based on the modified Cholesky decomposition for longitudinal data. Meanwhile, we apply M-H algorithm to simulate the posterior distributions of model parameters. Besides, a computationally efficient Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm is developed for carrying out maximum likelihood estimation. Simulation studies show that the model taking into account the inherent association between mean and covariance has smaller standard deviations of the estimators of parameters, which makes the statistical inferences much more reliable. In the real data analysis, the estimation of parameters in the mean and covariance structure is highly efficient.     

Joint Spatial Modeling of Recurrent Infection and Growth with Processes under Intermittent Observation

Summary In this article, we present a new statistical methodology for longitudinal studies in forestry, where trees are subject to recurrent infection, and the hazard of infection depends on tree growth over time. Understanding the nature of this dependence has important implications for reforestation and breeding programs. Challenges arise for statistical analysis in this setting with sampling schemes leading to panel data, exhibiting dynamic spatial variability, and incomplete covariate histories for hazard regression. In addition, data are collected at a large number of locations, which poses computational difficulties for spatiotemporal modeling. A joint model for infection and growth is developed wherein a mixed nonhomogeneous Poisson process, governing recurring infection, is linked with a spatially dynamic nonlinear model representing the underlying height growth trajectories. These trajectories are based on the von Bertalanffy growth model and a spatially varying parameterization is employed. Spatial variability in growth parameters is modeled through a multivariate spatial process derived through kernel convolution. Inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework with implementation based on hybrid Monte Carlo. Our methodology is applied for analysis in an 11‐year study of recurrent weevil infestation of white spruce in British Columbia.     

Impact of the contraction of medial forearm muscles during grip tasks in different forearm positions on medial support at the elbow joint

We measured the medial joint distance (MJD), activity of muscles involved in medial elbow-joint support, and grip strength, aiming to examine the supportfunction of muscles.MJD was measured in supinated and pronated positions of the forearm of 10 participants under three conditions: at rest (R), under valgus load on the elbow joint (L), and under valgus load on the elbow joint during the grip task (L-grip). Under the L-grip condition, electromyography was performed on flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), pronator teres (PT), flexor carpi radialis (FCR), and flexor carpi ulnaris (FCU); subsequently, normalized integrated electromyograms (NIEMG) were calculated. Under the L-grip condition, MJD was shorter in the pronated position than in the supinated position (p < 0.001); however, grip strength was lower in the pronated position. NIEMG of FDS was 90% in both positions, and those of FCR and FCU were low at 10%. However, that of PT was 3.6% in the supinated position and 40.9% in the pronated position, showing higher NIEMG in the pronated position (p < 0.001). Medial support during grip tasks was higher in the pronated position probably because PT activity compensates for the decreased FDS activity.     

Taxonomic diversity gradients through geological time

Abstract. There is evidence from the fossil record to suggest that latitudinal gradients in taxonomic diversity may be time‐invariant features, although almost certainly not on the same scale as that seen at the present day. It is now apparent that both latitudinal and longitudinal gradients increased dramatically in strength through the Cenozoic era (i.e. the last 65 my) to become more pronounced today than at any time in the geological past. Present‐day taxonomic diversity gradients, in both the marine and terrestrial realms, are underpinned by the tropical radiations of a comparatively small number of species‐rich clades. Quite why these particular taxa proliferated through the Cenozoic is uncertain, but it could be that at least part of the explanation involves the phenomenon of evolutionary escalation. This is, in essence, a theory of biological diversification through evolutionary feedback mechanisms between predators and prey; first one develops an adaptive advantage, and then the other. However, there may also have been some form of extrinsic control on the process of tropical diversification, and this was most likely centred on the phenomenon of global climate change. This is especially so over the last 15 my Various Late Cenozoic (Neogene) vicariant events effectively partitioned the tropics into a series of high diversity centres, or foci. It has been suggested that, in the largest of these in the marine realm (the Indo‐West Pacific or IWP centre), a critical patterns of islands acted as a template for rapid speciation during glacioeustatic sea level cycles. The same process occurred in the Atlantic, Caribbean and East Pacific (ACEP) centre, though on a lesser scale. Tropical terrestrial diversity may also have been promoted by rapid range expansions and contractions in concert with glacial cycles (a modified refugium hypothesis). We are beginning to appreciate that an integrated sequence of Neogene tectonic and climatic events greatly influenced the formation of contemporary taxonomic diversity patterns.     

A Higher Serum Calcium Level is an Independent Risk Factor for Vision-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses

ObjectiveAn elevated serum calcium level is associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but its role in microvascular complications remains unclear. This study was conducted to investigate the association between serum calcium levels and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR).MethodsThis study employed a cross-sectional and longitudinal design. The cross-sectional part included all patients treated for T2D at Shanghai General Hospital between 2007 and 2016, while the longitudinal part involved an overlapping cohort of diabetic patients without VTDR who were followed from their admission until December 2019. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed, respectively. VTDR was defined as severe nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy, proliferative diabetic retinopathy, or clinically significant macular edema.ResultsA total of 3269 patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 649 patients were included in the longitudinal analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, higher corrected serum calcium (odds ratio: 1.31 per 0.1 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval: 1.16-1.49), younger age, longer diabetes duration, albuminuria, impaired renal function, and lower serum magnesium were independently associated with VTDR. In the longitudinal analysis, 95 subjects developed VTDR during follow-up (9.7 years, interquartile range: 7.4-10.9 years). Higher corrected serum calcium (hazard ratio: 1.38 per 0.1 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.72), younger age, longer diabetes duration, sub-VTDR, albuminuria, lower serum magnesium, and higher glycated hemoglobin were identified as independent risk factors for VTDR.ConclusionsA higher serum calcium level may be an independent risk factor for VTDR in patients with T2D.     

Genetic Variation and Obesity in Australian Women: A Prospective Study

Objective: A number of candidate genes have been implicated in the pathogenesis of obesity in humans. This study examines associations between longitudinal changes in body mass and composition and the presence of polymorphisms in the β‐3 adrenergic receptor, tumor necrosis factor‐α, leptin, and leptin receptor (Lepr) in a cohort of Australian women. Research Methods and Procedures: Healthy white Australian women (n = 335) were randomly selected from the Barwon region of Victoria and underwent baseline anthropometry and double‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry for assessment of body mass and adiposity. These measurements were repeated again at 2‐year follow‐up. Genomic DNA was extracted and used for polymerase chain reaction‐based genotyping of all polymorphisms. Results: The Pro1019Pro Lepr polymorphism was associated with longitudinal increases in body weight (p = 0.02), fat mass (p = 0.05), and body mass index (p = 0.01) in this study, and individuals homozygous for the A allele at this locus had a greater propensity to gain body fat over time. The largest effects on body composition seemed to be in individuals already obese at baseline. Changes in body weight, fat mass, percent body fat, and body mass index over a 2‐year period were not associated with genetic variation in the β‐3 adrenergic receptor (Trp64Arg), tumor necrosis factor‐α promoter, or leptin genes in non‐obese or obese women. Discussion: These results suggest that a Lepr polymorphism is involved in the regulation of body mass and adiposity in obese Australian white women, which may have implications for the treatment of obesity in this population.     

Serum Leptin and Weight Gain Over 8 Years in African American and Caucasian Young Adults

FOLSOM, AARON R., MICHAEL D. JENSEN, DAVID R. JACOBS, JR., JOAN E. HILNER, ALBERT W. TSAI, AND PAMELA J. SCHREINER. Serum leptin and weight gain over 8 years in African American and Caucasian young adults. Obes Res. 1999;7:1–8. Objective : There is considerable interest in how to prevent weight gain in adulthood. Leptin, a peptide hormone expressed in adipose tissue, is believed to signal the central nervous system about the level of body fat stores, and thereby may control appetite. Little information exists on whether the serum leptin concentration influences long-term weight changes in the free-living population. Research Methods and Procedures : From an ongoing cohort study of young African American and white adults, we selected a sample of participants (n=492), stratified on sex, race, and weight changes over 8 years. Serum leptin was measured on stored specimens using a radioimmunoassay. Weight change was modeled in relation to baseline leptin concentrations. Results : Cross-sectionally, leptin concentration was associated positively with body mass index, negatively with physical activity level, and was higher in women than men. These variables explained 72% of the variance in serum leptin. Over the 8 years, the sample gained an average of 7.8 kg (standard deviation = 10.8). There was no evidence that 8-year weight change was associated with initial leptin concentration: 8-year weight change was only 0.5 kg less (95% confidence interval = ?1.8 to 0.8, p = 0.47) per each 10 ng/ mL increment (approximately one standard deviation) of baseline leptin. In contrast, leptin change correlated highly (r = 0.62) with weight change. Discussion : Our data corroborate evidence that adiposity determines leptin levels but do not support the hypothesis that leptin deficiency plays an important role in obesity in the general population.