孢粉及其他标识重建和PMIP模拟末次大冰期年均温——协调资料-模型比较法尝试

气象资料检测证明了气候模型模拟现代温度比用更复杂的湿度平衡模型好得多,而根据地质资料在山区和沿海地区重建和模型模拟的可信度要低一些,所以在比较地质资料和过去气候模拟时要考虑这个实际情况,在当前研究中我们进行末次大冰期资料一模型比较时以年均温为例,在使用所有点的资料时出现了模拟和重建之间的不一致,相反,当去掉那些模棱两可的地点后结果变得意外的好,在少数情况下结果不同时,边界条件不确定或者资料太少是模型和资料不一致的主要原因,通过使用模拟和资料的区域性平均值,我们证明了PMIP能够正确地模拟出地球陆地上区域性的年均温,在区域性研究中因经常使用未经选择的资料作为模型确认值,因而很难获得这一重要的结论。     

福建省多花黄精生态适宜性区划研究

通过研究多花黄精(Polygonatum cyrtonema)的生态适宜性,为其野生资源保护及人工规范化栽培提供依据。收集237份多花黄精分布位置和55个生态因子,导入最大熵(MaxEnt)模型运算,结合地理信息系统(GIS)分析其适合生长区域。结果表明,影响多花黄精生态适宜性的主要生态因子是3月降水量、年均降水量、6月降水量、5月降水量、4月降水量、2月降水量和最冷季降水量,在福建省具有广泛适宜生长区域。模型预测结果可靠,可为多花黄精野生资源保护提供参考,并为其科学种植提供指导。     

气候变化背景下基于MaxEnt模型的刺梨潜在适生区分布预测

为阐明气候变化背景下刺梨(Rosa roxburghii)在中国的潜在适生区分布,该研究基于刺梨的自然分布数据及当代(1960～1990)、未来(21世纪50年代及70年代)气候因子数据,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了当前和未来气候情景下刺梨在中国的潜在适生区,并确定影响其地理分布的主要气候因子.结果表明:(1)...     

末次盛冰期以来观光木的潜在地理分布变迁

观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)是木兰科的古老残遗物种, 目前正面临严峻的生存威胁, 属于极小种群濒危植物。通过生态位模型(ENM)能够重建观光木地理分布格局的历史变迁, 探究气候变化对该物种分布的影响, 并了解其地理分布与气候需求间的关系, 从而为全球变暖背景下观光木的保护提供理论基础。该文基于96条现代分布记录和8个环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟观光木在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来(2061-2080年, RCP 8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用SDM toolbox分析观光木的地理空间变化, 并综合贡献率、置换重要值和Jackknife检验来评估气候因子的重要性。研究结果表明: (1)观光木的高度适生区在南岭地区, 末次盛冰期时没有大尺度向南退缩, 很可能在山区避难所原地存活; (2)在全新世中期和未来两个增温的气候情境下, 观光木的分布区均表现为缩减, 其中未来分布的减幅更大, 表明气候变暖对观光木的生长有一定的负面影响; (3)总体上看, 观光木各个时期的地理分布范围相对稳定, 说明观光木对气候变化有一定的适应能力, 人为活动或自身繁育问题可能是致濒的重要原因, 并建议对广东和广西群体进行优先保护。     

Testing the Equality of the Intra‐Subject Treatment Covariance Matrices in a Crossover Study

In a 2 × 2 crossover bioavailability study, the sets of estimates of the pharmacokinetic parameters quite often have a symmetric covariance structure between the two treatments. For testing the equality of the intra‐subject covariance matrices for the two treatments in such studies, we suggest in this paper some statistical tests. When the response vectors are bivariate, we propose an exact test. Since the statistical procedures depend on the assumption of a symmetric covariance structure between the two treatments, we put forth some statistical tests for this assumption. We then apply the discussed tests to real data from a crossover bioavailability trial.     

Phylogenetic Reconstruction of a Known HIV-1 CRF04_cpx Transmission Network Using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Methods

The CRF04_cpx strains of HIV-1 accounts for approximately 2–10% of the infected population in Greece, across different transmission risk groups. CRF04_cpx was the lineage documented in an HIV-1 transmission network in Thessalonica, northern Greece. Most of the transmissions occurred through unprotected heterosexual contacts between 1989 and 1993. Blood samples were available for six patients, obtained 6–10 years later, except for one patient sampled in 1991. Our objective was to examine whether the transmission history is compatible with the evolutionary tree of the virus, in partial gag, partial env, and partial gag+env. The inferred phylogenetic tree obtained using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods in partial gag+env was much closer to the transmission tree than that using either env or gag separately. Our findings suggest that the epidemiological relationships among patients who have been infected by a common source correspond almost exactly to the evolutionary trees of the virus, given that enough phylogenetic signal is present in the alignment. Moreover, we found evidence that recombination is not the most parsimonious explanation for the phylogenetic incongruence between gag and env. For patients with known infection dates, the estimated dates of the coalescent events obtained using molecular clock calculations based on a newly developed Bayesian method in gag + env were in agreement with the actual infection dates.This article contains online supplementary material.Reviewing Editor: Dr. Lauren Ancel-MeyersIsolated sequences from patients belonging to the CRF04_cpx transmission network always correspond to partially characterized gag, env, and gag+env genomic regions.     

Evolutionary Rate and Genetic Heterogeneity of Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type II (HTLV-II) Using Isolates from European Injecting Drug Users

Seven new Italian and two new British HTLV-II isolates were obtained from injecting drug users and the entire long terminal repeat (LTR) region was sequenced. Restriction analysis showed that all the Italian isolates are of the IIb subtype, whereas the British isolates are of the IIa subtype. To understand whether the further differentiation of each two principal HTLV-II subtypes in several subgroups could be statistically supported by phylogenetic analysis, the neighbor-joining, parsimony, and maximum likelihood methods were used. The separation between IIa and IIb is very well supported by all three methods. At least two phylogenetic subgroups exist within the HTLV-IIa and at least three within the HTLV-IIb subtype. In the present analysis, no statistical support was obtained for additional phylogroups. Two particular subgroups seem interesting because they include all European and North American injecting drug user strains within the IIa and IIb subtypes, respectively. These data confirm that European HTLV-II infection among drug users is probably derived from North America. They also suggest that though a certain differentiation by restriction analysis in different subgroups is possible, carefully interpreted phylogenetic analyses remain necessary. Using the likelihood ratio test, a molecular clock for the drug user strains was calibrated. A fixation rate between 1.08 × 10⁻⁴ and 2.7 × 10⁻⁵ nucleotide substitutions per site per year was calculated for the IIa and IIb injecting drug user strains. This is the lowest fixation rate so far reported for RNA viruses, including for HIV, which typically range between 10⁻² and 10⁻⁴.